CAPIS Morning Note – 8/23/24: Federal Reserve Chairman to Speak at 10:00 a.m. EDT, Futures Higher.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.89% at 5570.64 from Wednesday higher by 0.43% to 5620.85. The overnight high was hit at 5,627.75 at 6:40 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5594.75 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 33 points. The current price is 5625 at 6:40 a.m. EDT […]

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.89% at 5570.64 from Wednesday higher by 0.43% to 5620.85. The overnight high was hit at 5,627.75 at 6:40 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5594.75 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 33 points. The current price is 5625 at 6:40 a.m. EDT higher by +31 points.

Important Read of the Morning:

Executive Summary: Today is all about the Jackson Hole Symposium put on by the Kansas City Federal Reserve. In prior talks from Jackson Hole by Powell, three months later the S& P 500 was lower by -7%.

  • July New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 628,000 from 617,000.
  • Fed Chairman Powell speaks at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats:  INTU +0.14, BILL +0.11, WDAY +0.10, ROST +0.09, CAVA +0.04 and AMSWA +0.04 of note.
  • Flat: 
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: IBG, PMAX, SKK, TDTH, YXT
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • REXR files for 12,300,000 shares of common stock offering; also files for 11,900,000 shares of common stock offering
    • HKIT: Form F-3 .. Up to 14,907,000 Shares of Class A Ordinary Shares
    • TKLF: FORM F-3 – Up to 5,970,152 American Depositary Shares
  • Notes Priced:
    • UHAL Announces $500 Million Private Placement of Senior Unsecured
      Notes
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares:
  • Selling Shareholders of note: 
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CYTO: Form F-1 Mixed Shelf
  • PIPE:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • UMAC Agrees to Exchange $1M of its Existing Debt for Series C Preferred Shares Convertible at Market Value
  • Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:

  • Movers Up: WDAY +10.3%, CAVA +7.7%, ROST +5.6%, RKLB +5.1%, TVTX +3.2%, IBTA +2.7%, PRPL +2.6%
  • Movers Down: INTU -2.9%, LPLA -2%, UBER -1.9%

News After The Close :

    • JAZZ  provides Update on Cannabidiol Oral Solution Phase 3 Trial in Japan in Treatment-Resistant Epilepsies 
    • DRS awarded $49 mln contract to build additional advanced Joint Assault Bridge systems for the U.S. Army and the Romanian military
    • ALGN pilots U.S. Invisalign Treatment Promotional Program on Costco.com
    • PSN awarded nearly $46 mln to oversee Operations Technology Maintenance Services for an East Coast strategic transportation customer 
    • LPLA reports monthly activity report for July 2024; total advisory and brokerage assets increased 2.1% from June 2024 to $1.53 trillion
    • SF reports July operating data; clients assets under management increased 2% from last month, reaching record level of $481 bln
    • UBER and GM sign multiyear partnership to bring Cruise autonomous vehicles to Uber platform
    • Canada government orders CNP to enter binding arbitration to resolve labor dispute. (Chicago Tribune)
    • VSAT awarded a $153.5 mln Defense Information Systems Agency contract
    • 10-Q Delays none of note.

Buybacks or Repurchases: Buybacks should be slow as most companies are in a blackout period as earnings season kicks into gear.

  • AVDX  approves first ever share repurchase program to purchase up to $100 mln common shares
  • WDAY authorizes the repurchase of up to $1.0 bln of its common stock 
  • IBTA authorizes up to $100 mln for share repurchases 

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • Former Lockheed Martin (LMT) CFO Kenneth Possenriede appointed to RKLB’s Board of Directors

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: PBR CRH HLT TEL CMI TRU
  • Stocks Ex Div Monday: MMM LYB CDW TSCO ATO MUSA PAYC MKSI CIG PHI RDN

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 +28 NASDAQ 100 +144 Dow Jones +138 Russell 2000 +11.57. Asia is lower ex Japan  while Europe is higher as well this morning. VIX Futures are at 16.60 from 16.10 yesterday while Bonds are at 3.844% from 3.827% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $60,815 from $61,241 higher by +0.87% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Real Estate and Financials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors:  Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Communication Services of note.
  • One Month Winners: Real Estate, Utilities, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Real Estate, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive, Financials and Utilities of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Utilities, Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Healthcare note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Utilities, Financials, Consumer Defensive and Healthcare of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close:  None of note.
  • Monday Before The Open: PDD

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note. 
  • Flat:
  • Misses: UI -0.17, BKE -0.02
  • Still to Report: LANC OSIS WSM

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ZM of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance:  PTON, AAP, CSIQ  of note.

Advance/Decline Weekly Update With Both Daily and Weekly Stats: Some deterioration yesterday.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: WDAY +12.5%, CAVA +8.9%, AMSWA +7.2%, ROST +5.6%, TVTX +4.9%, GLPG +4.9%, RKLB +3.8%, PRPL +2.6%, IBTA +2.1%
  • Gap Down: BMA -4.8%, LPLA -2.1%

Insider Action: CNX sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  APEI sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Harris Accepts Historic Nomination. (Bloomberg)
  • Pre-Market Movers PTON WDAY CHWY (CNBC)
  • Markets Wrap: US Futures jump ahead of Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chairman Powell. (Bloomberg)
  • Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to increase rates if growth and inflation on course. (Reuters)
  • China bond trading collapses amid PBOC crackdown on Record Rally. (Bloomberg)
  • Labor Day travel to be highest in decades. (Bloomberg)
  • Jackson Hole history points to Powell sidestepping market shocks. (Bloomberg)
  • Marketplace: Bytes Week In Review. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion:  Mastering the art of long term investing. (Podcast)

Economic:

  • July New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 628,000 from 617,000.
  • Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:

  • President Biden receives the Daily Briefing today at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Speakers      

  • Federal Reserve Kansas City Jackson Hole Symposium continues.
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at 10:00 a.m. EDT from Jackson Hole, Wyoming on monetary policy.

M&A Activity and News:

  • None of note.

Moving Averages On Major Indexes:  Moves from 100%  to 80%of the moving averages being positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

    • Sellside Conferences:
      • Needham Virtual Semiconductor and SemiCap 1×1 Conference
      • Wells Fargo FinTech Information & Business Services Forum
    • Fireside Chat: None of note.
    • Top Shareholder Meetings: CING, CLOE, DGLY, MSAI, VSTO
    • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: GSK
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation:
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings or Events:
    • Gamescom Conferences
    • International Meeting on Information Display (IMID 2024)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: ROKU

Downgrades: MODG