CAPIS Morning Note – 7/5/24: Jobs Friday Will Move Markets

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.51% at 5537.02 from Tuesday higher by +0.62% at 5509.01. The overnight high was hit at 5,598.75 at 2:35 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5586.25 at 6:05 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 13 points. The current price is 5591.25 at 7:10 a.m. EDT…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.51% at 5537.02 from Tuesday higher by +0.62% at 5509.01. The overnight high was hit at 5,598.75 at 2:35 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5586.25 at 6:05 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 13 points. The current price is 5591.25 at 7:10 a.m. EDT higher by+1.00.

Executive Summary:  It’s all about the Jobs data this Friday. Too high and rates raise, stocks fall. Weak and rates drop, stocks fall.
  • Jobs Friday.
Earnings Out After The Close: 
  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat:  None of note.
  • Misses:  None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: GLE MJID NAMI PGHL
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
    •  .
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • DJT filed to sell 37.9 million shares of common stock.
    • DRMA filed to sell 1.07 million shares of common stock.
    • WKSP filed to sell 12.95 million shares of common stock.
  • Notes Priced of note:
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares:
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • DSX files a $500 million mixed-shelf offering.
    • IBIO files a $150 million mixed-shelf offering.
    • KULR files a $35 million mixed-shelf offering.
    • WWR files a $150 million mixed-shelf offering.
    • INTS files a $150 million mixed-shelf offering.
    • TGI files a mixed-shelf offering.
  • PIPE:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • .
  • Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

    • CBOE reports trading volume for June 2024. (Press Release)
    • Skydance Media’s deal to control Paramount Global (PARA) could be finalized by Monday. (Reuters)
    • FOMC Minutes were released at 2:00 p.m. EDT. (Press Release)

Buybacks or Repurchases:

  • None of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • None of note.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: JPM CSCO DIS AXP BMY GD LEN SYY NTAP TOL GL

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 +1.50, NASDAQ 100 +33.25, Dow Jones +3 Russell 2000 -5.82. Asia is mixed while Europe is higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 13.26 from 13.20 Wednesday while Bonds at 4.335% from 4.43% Wednesday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower along with Natural Gas. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher for a second day in a row. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $55,416 from $60,179  lower by -5.09% this morning.

 

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Materials, Technology, Utilities and Consumer Cyclicals of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Healthcare and Financials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Real Estate, Healthcare and Communication Services of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Defensive and  of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Healthcare and Financials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Financials, Energy, Industrials, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Financials, Healthcare, Energy and Consumer Defensive of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close:  None of note.
  • Monay Before The Open: GBX of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat:   None of note.
  • Misses:  None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance:   None of note.
  • Negative Guidance:  None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Remains awful for NASDAQ and weak for NYSE.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+4% or down more than -4%):

  • Gap Up: FANH +15.2%, NIU +7.7%, M +4.5%, TECK +3.4%, PLSE +2.3% of note.
  • Gap Down: WULF -11.5%, HUT -9.3%, NIO -2.5% of note.

Insider Action:   PEO TLYS ACHR see Insider buying with dumb short selling.  CTRN sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens on Friday morning. (CNBC)
  • What You Need to Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks Making the Biggest Moves Pre-Market:  M NVO TSLA. (CNBC)
  • Market Wrap: Global stocks are at record highs before U.S. Jobs Data. (Bloomberg)
  • Japan’s stock market keeps hitting new highs. Is this sustainable? (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Biden Heads Into a Make Or Break Weekend. (Bloomberg)
  • Labour Party wins British election as Tory Party is out. (Bloomberg)
  • Starmer becomes the British Prime Minister. (Bloomberg)
  • U.S. Jobs data to show slowdown say pundits. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: Will Kamala Harris replace President Biden. (Podcast)

Economic:

  • June Nonfarm Payrolls is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 185,00 from 272.000. The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay at 4.00%.
  • Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count is up at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:

  • President Biden heads to Madison, Wisconsin for campaign event at 2:15 p.m. EDT and leaves at 5:25 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Speakers      

  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams spoke early this morning at 5:40 a.m. EDT.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

M&A Activity and News:

  • KKR agrees to purchase Varsity Brands from Bain Capital for roughly $4.75 bln. (Reuters)

Moving Averages On Major Indexes:  Moves from 83% to 86% of the moving averages now positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: ARQT, NEON, OLK, OMH
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls:
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation:
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades:

Downgrades: SAVE ULCC

           Initiated: