CAPIS Morning Note – 7/23/24: Harris Secures Nomination, Stocks Mixed

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 1.08% at 5564.41 from Friday lowered by -0.71% at 5505. The overnight high was hit at 5,614 at 6:30 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5587.75 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 27 points. The current price is 5612.25 at 6:45 a.m. EDT…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 1.08% at 5564.41 from Friday lowered by -0.71% at 5505. The overnight high was hit at 5,614 at 6:30 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5587.75 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 27 points. The current price is 5612.25 at 6:45 a.m. EDT higher by +1.50 points.

Executive Summary:  A day later and it appears that Vice President Kamala Harris has wrapped up the Democratic nomination and that potential challengers like Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) have stepped down from challenging. Markets will like this as now it knows it is dealing with as opposed to the unknown. Today is a big earnings day in both the pre and after market.  After the close Google, Tesla and Visa report.
  • There is a 2-Year Note Treasury auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Earnings Out After The Close: 
  • Beats: BOKF +0.37, RLI +0.36, CCK +0.22, MEDP +0.21, NUE +0.19, ZION +0.19, KREF +0.14, CADE +0.12, CLF +0.12, WRB +0.12, SAP +0.06, BRO +0.05, CDNS +0.05, RBB +0.05, AGYS +0.04, CALX +0.03, ARE +0.02, HSTM +0.02, ELS +0.01,   of note.
  • Flat:  NXPI of note.
  • Misses: CATY -0.02, SSD -0.13, AGNC -1.67 of note.
  • Yet to Report:

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week:
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • AROC commences public offering of 11 mln shares of common stock.
  • Notes Priced:
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares:
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • BRBS files for 96,809,999 shares of common stock by selling shareholders; relates to warrants
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BWAY  files $100 mln mixed shelf securities offering 
  • PIPE:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
  • Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:

  • Movers Up: TUSK 27.70%, CCK +5.9%, SAP +4.9%, RLI +4.8%, ZION +4.6%, WRB +4.2%, TURN +4.2%, BOKF +3.9%, NBTB +3%, IPAR +2.3% (guidance), BRO +2%
  • Movers Down: MEDP -13.8%, NXPI -7.4%, SSD -6%, AGYS -3.4%, CALX -3.2%, CATY -2.8%, CDNS -2%

News After The Close :

  • Ethereum: Spot ETFs approved by the SEC. (CoinDesk)
  • NXPI misses on auto segment and shares fall. (Reuters)
  • Crowdstrike (CRWD) CEO George Kurtz called to testify before the House on last week’s outage. (Reuters)
  • Vice President Kamala Harris claims most of the delegates needed for the Democratic nomination. (AP)
  • Later in the night, Harris clinched the needed number of delegates. (NYT)

Buybacks or Repurchases: Buybacks should be slow as most companies are in a blackout period as earnings season kicks into gear.

  • FBP announces a new repurchase program of up to $250 million that could include repurchases of common stock or junior subordinated debentures

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • NEXT appoints Tarik Skeik as COO.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: DELL NOK GBX
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: LOW AM DNUT
  • NBTB increases quarterly cash dividend 6.3% to $0.34/share from $0.32/share
  • CBNK increases its quarterly dividend by 25% to $0.10/share 

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 +5, NASDAQ 100 -0.50, Dow Jones +36, Russell 2000 +12.45. Asia is higher ex the Nikkei while Europe is higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 15.65 from 15.55 Friday while Bonds are at 4.23% from 4.224% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. Gold is higher but Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $66,550 from $67,330 higher by +0.04% this morning.

 

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals and Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy of note.
  • One Month Winners: Real Estate, Financials, Energy, Utilities and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Real Estate, Financials,  Utilities and Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Utilities and Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Industrials, and Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Industrials, Utilities and Consumer Defensive  of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: 

  • Wednesday Before The Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  LMT +0.65, HCA +0.57, PHM +0.56, GM +0.35, SPOT +0.28, KMB +0.25, MCO +0.25, GE +0.21, SHW +0.21, AVY +0.16, DHR +0.15, CBU +0.14, CMCSA +0.09, MSCI +0.09, PNR +0.08, SASR +0.08, FBP +0.05, NWBI +0.05 of note.
  • Flat:    of note.
  • Misses: PII -0.87, HRI -0.31, UPS -0.20, GPC -0.15, WBS -0.o7, BANC -0.07, AOS -0.01 of note.
  • Still to Report:  None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance:   GM of note.
  • Negative Guidance:   GPC PII CALX  of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:  A/D lines improved on Monday.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+4% or down more than -4%):

  • Gap Up: TUSK +28.6%, IPAR +13.4%, SPOT +13.3%, CCK +8.3%, DHR +6.8%, SAP +6.3%, BRO +6.2%, RLI +4.8%, MSCI +4.7%, GM +4.5%, TERN +4.2%, ZION +4.1%, VLRS +4%, BOKF +3.9%, AIOT +3.5%, PHM +3.3%, GE +2.8%, CADE +2.1% of note.
  • Gap Down: PII -15.7%, MEDP -12.7%, CLRB -9.3%, AROC -7.9%, NXPI -7.9%, UPS -7.2%, SSD -7%, PAC -5%, CALX -4.4%, CATY -4.2%, WDS -4%, AGYS -3.4%, CPAC -3.2%, CSTM -2.8%, VSTO -2.2%, SMFG -2%of note.

Insider Action:    No stocks see Insider buying with dumb short selling.    sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Harris Has Enough Delegates to Clinch Nomination for President. (Bloomberg)
  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Markets Wrap: Stocks mixed as focus swings to tech results. (Bloomberg)
  • Wiz rejects Google’s $23 billion offer. (Bloomberg)
  • House Oversight Committee to look at Pharmacy Benefit Managers today.
  • Delta (DAL) cancels hundreds of flights today as it still is struggling to recover from Crowdstrike error. (CNBC)
  • Barron’s – UPS shares are tumbling on issues with the freight business. (Barron’s)
  • Coca Cola (KO) beats on estimates and shares rise. (MarketWatch)
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: The gaming platform where predators may lurk. (Podcast)
  • NY Times- The Daily: The Coronation of Kamala Harris. (Podcast)
  • Marketplace: Rising seas create flood risks. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: How to buy gold. (Podcast)

Economic:

  • June Existing Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and last month came in at 4.11 million and are expected to drop to 4.00 million. 
  • API Weekly Crude Inventories are due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:

  • President Biden leaves lockdown in Delaware a day later than expected and heads to the White House with arrival at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
  • The President does however receive the Daily Briefing today at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
  • President Biden meeting with Israel President Netanyahu at the White House yesterday was postponed to probably to Wednesday.

Federal Reserve Speakers      

  • Federal Reserve speakers are now in blackout mode as next week the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.                                                                                                                                                                                               

M&A Activity and News:

  • Dover (DOV) acquires Marshall Excelsior Company for $395 mln in cash.

Moving Averages On Major Indexes:  Moves from 60% to 63% of the moving averages being positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

    • Sellside Conferences:
    • Fireside Chat: None of note.
    • Top Shareholder Meetings: IREN, LUCD, TNON, VFC, VSTO
    • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: CRVO, IREN, JAGX, META
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation:
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings or Events:
    • AIDS Conference
    • Battery & Precious Metals Investor Conference
    • Farnborough Air Show
    • National Homeland Security Conference

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrade: RIO EVTL DNUT COIN
  • Downgrade: UAA IQ