CAPIS Morning Note – 7/18/24: Stocks Bouncing Back Modestly, Taiwan Semi Beats and ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday lower by -1.39% from Tuesday higher by 0.64% at 5667.20. The overnight high was hit at 5,664 at 2:50 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5633.50 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 31 points. The current price is 5647 at 7:05 a.m. EDT higher by […]

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday lower by -1.39% from Tuesday higher by 0.64% at 5667.20. The overnight high was hit at 5,664 at 2:50 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5633.50 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 31 points. The current price is 5647 at 7:05 a.m. EDT higher by +8 points.

Executive Summary: Yesterday was the first loss of more than -1% since April 30th. We are now a little more than half way through the month and either yesterday’s loss is a one off event or it morphs into more losses greater than -1%. We call this clustering. Last year the S&P 500 and other indexes began to correct in July and then bottomed in October. We note however that the Russell 2000 which for some of the day was in the green finished in the red as well losing -1.06%. Be watchful here.

Earnings are picking up speed.

Earnings Out After The Close:

Beats: DFS +2.98, SLG +0.46, SNV +0.21, UAL +0.21, ALK +0.17, AA +0.08, EFX +0.08, LBRT +0.04, HOMB +0.03, FR +0.02, REXR +0.02, CNS -0.01 of note.
Flat: OZK and KMI of note.
Misses: WTFC -0.10, CCI -0.05, STLD -0.01, FNB -0.01 of note.
Yet to Report:

Capital Raises:

IPOs For The Week:
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
IPOs Filed/Priced:
Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- AWH: Form S-3 .. 2,497,054 Shares of Common Stock
- ET: Form S-3 .. 50,827,536 Common Units
- SILO: Form S-1 Filed – Up to 1,043,739 Shares of Upon Exercise of Certain Common Stock Purchase
  Warrants
- VEV VMC – Closing of the US$2.5 Million Registered Direct Offering
Notes Priced:
Direct Offering:
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares:
Selling Shareholders of note:
- GAME: Form S-1 Filed 37,305,950 Shares of Common Stock by Selling Stockholders
- STBX: Form F-3.. 81,500,000 Class A Ordinary Shares Offered by Selling Shareholders
- ET for 50,827,536 common units by selling unitholders
Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- ISPR: $120,000,000 Mixed Shelf
- MYND: Form F-3.. $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf
PIPE:
Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
- FET $60 Million Senior Secured Notes Redemption
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:

Movers Up: CHUY +47.50%, FR +5%, DFS +4.7%, EFX +3%, SLG +1.8%
Movers Down: LESL -17.6%, BYND -16.2%, WTFC -5%, KMI -2.8%, EFX -1.6%, UAL -1.3%

News After The Close :

- - LESL guides JunQ EPS and revs below consensus; co lowers FY24 EPS and revenue guidance. This comes after POOL lowered guidance as several weeks ago.
  - Darden (DRI) to buy Chuy’s Holding (CHUY) for $37.50 a share in an all cash transaction.
  - BYND lower after hours on report that co engages bondholders for restructuring talks according to CNBC, citing WSJ. (WSJ)
  - Hyatt Hotels (H) close to a deal to buy Standard International. (Bloomberg)

Buybacks or Repurchases: Buybacks should be slow as most companies are in a blackout period as earnings season kicks into gear.

None of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

WOOF appoints Joel D. Anderson to serve as Chief Executive Officer, effective July 29
VLGEA announces the passing of Chairman William P. Sumas; appoints CEO Robert Sumas as interim Chairman

Dividends Announcements or News:

Stocks Ex Div Today: GHC ARMK
Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: PG CL GEHC WSM PNR SM WDFC PDCO CMRE CBRL
JBSS declares $1.25/share special dividend and a regular annual dividend of $0.85/share
UNP announces a 3% increase in quarterly cash dividend to $1.34/share
CBU increases quarterly cash dividend 2.2% to $0.46/share from $0.45/share
RF increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.25/share from $0.24/share

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 +5, NASDAQ 100 +64, Dow Jones -71, Russell 2000 -0.37. Asia is lower and Europe is higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.65 from 14.55 yesterday while Bonds at 4.184% from 4.18% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold and Silver are higher with Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $64,653 from $64,719 lower by -0.02% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release): The was definitely some rotation this week given the move into Small Cap.

Daily Positive Sectors: Industrials, Materials, Consumer Cyclicals and Financials of note.
Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services of note.
One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical and Financials of note.
Three Month Winners: Technology, Utilities, Communication Services, Real Estate, Healthcare, Financials and Consumer Defensive of note.
Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials and Industrials of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Healthcare, Industrials, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
Year to Date Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Utilities and Healthcare of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Thursday After the Close:

Friday Before The Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

Beats: DPZ +0.35, DHI +0.35, VIRT +0.23, MTB +0.22, SNA +0.15, CBSH +0.13, OFG +0.12, TSM +0.07, BKU +0.07, TXT +0.06, HXL +0.04, WNS +0.02 and MMC +0.01 of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: TFIN -0.21, IIIN -0.09, TCBI -0.06, KEY -0.05 of note.
Still to Report: of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

Positive Guidance: None of note.
Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Yesterday;s drop did not really hurt the A/D lines progress.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+4% or down more than -4%):

Gap Up: CHUY +46.9%, RARE +4.4%, OPK +4.2%, SLG +3.1%, DCO +2.4%, STLD +2.3%, FR +2% of note.

Gap Down: LESL -22.5%, BYND -12.7%, DPZ -9.2%, NOK -5.1%, ALK -2.5%, KMI -2.4%, SWIM -2.3%, GEHC -2.2%, OZK -2.2%, VALN -2% of note.

Insider Action: Non stocks see Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stocks see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
Stocks making the biggest moves pre-market: DPZ UAL GPS DFS (CNBC)
Bloomberg Lead Story: Biden Faces Intensified Calls to Step Aside Now That Has Covid. (Bloomberg)
Markets Wrap: US Chip stocks set to bounce on TSM beat. (Bloomberg)
ECB left rates unchanged.
Barron’s – Positive on Utility stocks AES and AEE. (Barron’s)
Vice Presidential Nominee JD Vance speech reviewed. (CNBC)
President Biden is down and out with Covid.
Bloomberg: The Big Take: Connor Teskey to take over Brookfield. (Podcast)

Economic:

July Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 2.90 from 1.30.
Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
June Leading Indicators is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to -0.3% from -0.5%.
Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:

President Biden appears to be in lockdown in Delaware with a mild case of Covid. All events are cancelled today.

Federal Reserve Speakers

Federal Reserve Dallas President Lorrie Logan speaks at 1:45 p.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks at 6:05 p.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at 7:45 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity and News:

Darden (DRI) to buy Chuy’s Holding (CHUY) for $37.50 a share in an all cash transaction.

Moving Averages On Major Indexes: Moves from 97% to 77% of the moving averages being positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Sellside Conferences:
- Wolfe Research Materials of theFuture Conference
Fireside Chat: None of note.
Top Shareholder Meetings: APLS, CDTX, EBF, OCUL, SKIL, XFIN
Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ALGS, ESTC, MEGI, WWR
Update: None of note.
R&D Day: None of note.
FDA Presentation:
Company Event:
Industry Meetings or Events:
- Republican National Convention
- Emerging Growth Conference
- International Cough Symposium
- Tokyo Toranomon Global Square Conference
- NACUFS National Showcase
- NCMS Technology Showcase

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.