CAPIS Morning Note – 7/17/25: Crypto Bill Gets Through House, Stocks Flat

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 0.32% at 6263.70 from Tuesday lower by -0.40% at 6243.76. Futures are higher this morning by +3.75 (+0.06%) at 6307 on the S&P 500 around 6:15 a.m. EDT. Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 6.50% from 6.16% on yesterday’s […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: 

  • The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 0.32% at 6263.70 from Tuesday lower by -0.40% at 6243.76.
  • Futures are higher this morning by +3.75 (+0.06%) at 6307 on the S&P 500 around 6:15 a.m. EDT.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 6.50% from 6.16% on yesterday’s close.

Executive Summary:

  • Well folks, inflation is not an issue post PPI yesterday and then President Trump went EL LOCO not TACO calling for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s head. Then Trump denied it and stocks came back to life. What an interesting world we live in.

Breaking News: None of note.

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note today include Retail Sales, Philly Fed, Import/Export Prices, NAHB Housing Market Index  as well as Weekly Jobless Claims and Natural Gas Inventories.
  • Fed Speak of note today.  4 speakers of note.
  • President Trump receives his Intelligence Briefing and then later in the day signs Executive Orders.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats:  SLG +0.24, SNV +0.22, AIR +0.16, TFIN +0.09, AA +0.07, UAL +0.06, FR +0.03, HOMB +0.01, REXR +0.01 of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat: KMI of note.

Capital Raises: 

  • IPOs For The Week:  None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • AIRE Pricing of $2 Million Public Offering.
    • BRCC announces proposed public offering of Class a common stock.
    • GAME – Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • MP – Commencement of Proposed $500 Million Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • NB Commencement of Proposed Public Offering of Common Shares.
    • SQNS: FORM F-3 – 1,171,987,620 Ordinary Shares represented by 117,198,762 American Depositary Shares – 222,458,520 Ordinary Shares represented by 22,245,852 American Depositary Shares issuable upon the exercise of Pre-Funded Warrants.
    • STWD – Pricing of Common Stock Offering.
    • SXTP SXTPW – Closing of up to $10 Million Public Offering$5 million received upfront with up to an additional $5 million of potential aggregate gross proceeds upon the exercise in full of short-term warrants.
  • Notes Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Files: None of note.
  • Convertibles Filed: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • BFRI: Form S-1.. 13,602,176 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.

News After The Close:

  • Granite Construction (GVA) awarded a $17 million contract by the Utah Department of Transportation for a bridge replacement project in Riverdale, Utah.
  • Sarepta (SRPT) announces Strategic Restructuring and Pipeline Prioritization Plan to Maintain Long-term, Sustainable Growth and Provides Update on ELEVIDYS Label.
  • Transocean (RIG) issues a quarterly Fleet Status Report; aggregate incremental backlog associated with these fixtures is approximately $199 million.
  • Newsmax (NMAX) expands carriage partnership with FuboTV (FUBO), includes Newsmax in Spanish.
  • Chief Coke Taster President Donald Trump says Coke to use real sugar.
  • U.S. government tells automakers they’ll face no fines for economy rules for models dating back to 2022. (Reuters)
  • 10-K Delay: None of note.

Buybacks of Note:

  • BPOP and announces $500 million common stock repurchase program.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • DG CFO Kelly Dilts to step down.

Dividends Announcements or News

  • Stocks Ex Div Today of note: EOG of note.
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: None of note.
  • UNP increases quarterly cash dividend 3% to $1.38/share from $1.34/share.
  • SJM  increases quarterly cash dividend to $1.10/share from $1.08/share.
  • RF increases quarterly cash dividend 6% to $0.265/share from $0.25/share.
  • CBU increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.47/share from $0.46/share.
  • BPOP increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.75/share from $0.70/share.

Stocks Moving Up & Down After The Close:

  • Gap Up:  SRPT +35.4%,  MCRI +15.6%, SPFI +5.3%, AIR +3.7%, REXR +2.2%, ADTN +2.2%,  BPOP +2% of note.
  • Gap Down: RARE (29.51 -26.07%), INGR -7.3%, BRCC -6%, ADM -5.7%, SQNS -5.1% , STWD -3.3%,  of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:45 a.m. EDT)

  • Futures S&P 500 -2.50, NASDAQ 100+10, Dow Jones -61 . Europe is higher while Asia is higher ex China. Bond yields are at 4.459% from 4.475%  on the 10-Year on Friday. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $118,263 from $118,911 lower by $926 (-0.76%) from yesterday.

Sector Action:
  • Daily Positive Sectors: All were higher ex Energy.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy was lower.
  • One Month Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Energy, Industrials and Financials of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Utilities of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Financials, Utilities, Industrials, Materials and Communication Services of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Communication, Services Materials, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: 

  • Friday Before The Open:  

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  TCBI+0.34, SNA +0.09, PEP +0.09, IIIN +0.09, TSM +0.08, MMC +0.05, CFG +0.04, FITB +0.01 of note. 
  • Misses:  ELV -0.07 of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line has rolled over.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp:  SRPT +34.8%, MCRI +15.1%, GEF +5%, BZAI +4.7%, EVTL +4.4%, AIR +4.2%, TSM +3.8%, SPFI +3%, TCBI +2.7%, SLG +2.5%, PEP +2.1%  of note.
  • GapDown: BRCC -12.9%, MP -7.3%, ELV -6.1%, ADM -5.5%, INGR -5.4%, SQNS -4.7%, STWD -4%, UAL -2.8%, TFIN -2%, of note.

Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Volume.

Insider Action: REPX sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling.  No names see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Bloomberg Lead Story: U.S. Eyes Tariff Rate of 10% to 15% for more than 150 Countries. (Bloomberg)
  • Markets Wrap: Stock Futures rise as Dollar rises on Powell drama played out. (Bloomberg).
  • Bitcoin hangs at $118,000.
  • President Trump will weigh in shortly on NIL and NFT for college athletes in an Executive Order. Today?
  • GE Aerospace (GE) raises full year guidance. (Bloomberg)
  • Crypto Bills in the House move forward on second try. (CNBC)
  • Taiwan Semi (TSM) fueled by AI chip growth. (CNBC)

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers today:
    • Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler speaks at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Federal Reserve San Francisco President Daly speaks at 12:45 a.m. EDT.
    • Federal Reserve Governor Cook speaks at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks at 6:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Releases:
    • Retail Sales for June are due out at 8:30 A.M. with a high trading impact and a prior reading of -0.9% with an estimate of 0.2%.
    • Philadelphia Fed Index for July is due out at 8:30 A.M. with a low trading impact and a prior reading of -4.0% against an estimate of -0.20%.
    •  The NAHB Housing Market Index for July is due out at 10:00 A.M. with a low trading impact and a prior reading of 32 against an estimate of 32.
    • Weekly Jobless Claims  and Natural Gas Inventories out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s Daily Schedule.
    • President Trump attends the Intelligence Briefing at 10:30 a.m. EDT. Then signs Executive Orders at 4:00 p.m. EDT. Press Briefing at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity: None of note.

Moving Average Table: Equities move from 70% to 80%. Bonds are in trouble.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: None of note.
  • Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: None of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: FOUR MDLZ SHOO TOST EVTL REAL of note.

Downgrades: ABG SAH SBUX SHAK of note.