CAPIS Morning Note – 7/15/24: Trump Survives Assassination Attempt, Stocks Higher

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.55% at 5615.35 from Thursday lower by -0.88% at 5584.54. The overnight high was hit at 5,690.25 at 5:40 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5665.50 at 6:15 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 25 points. The current price is 5689.75 at 7:10 a.m. EDT […]

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.55% at 5615.35 from Thursday lower by -0.88% at 5584.54. The overnight high was hit at 5,690.25 at 5:40 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5665.50 at 6:15 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 25 points. The current price is 5689.75 at 7:10 a.m. EDT higher by +25 points.

Executive Summary: Former President Trump seems to be recovering very well from the attempt on his life. I read on Twitter that he played 18 holes yesterday, which I love as golfer, and when he sunk a 20 footer he was reported to have said, “What is the difference between me and the shooter? I don’t miss.” This was nice to see that he still has his sense of humor. To point, I am a Republican never voted for Trump and I am very glad that he survived, as the damage to the country would have been great. The market sees stocks higher this morning.
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks before the Washington Economic Club at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
Earnings Out After The Close
  • Beats:  None of note.
  • Flat:  None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Yet to Report:

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week:
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • BNED: Form S-3.. 19,084,821 Shares of Common Stock
    • CNSP: Form S-1..2,359,000 Shares of Common Stock Issuable upon Exercise of Outstanding Warrants
    • ELYM: Form S-3.. 36,798,329 SHARES
    • LYT: Form F-1.. 3,573,700 Common Shares
    • MDIA: Form S-3.. 46,832,646 Shares of Class A Common Stock
    • TANH: Form F-1.. Up to 61,313,874 Common Shares
  • Notes Priced:
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares:
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • BNED files for 19,084,821 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
    • SDA files for 20,832,142 shares of common stock by selling shareholder.
    • ELYM files for 36,798,329 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • LAKE  files $100 mln mixed shelf securities offering.
    • SHIP files for $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering.
    • GNK files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • OBT: Form S-3.. $100.0 million Mixed Shelf
    • PRSO: Form S-3.. $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf
    • SXTP: Form S-3.. $15,000,000 Mixed Shelf
  • PIPE:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
  • Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down Last Week:

  • Movers Up: QURE (8.80 +129.17%), LNTH (123.08 +56.01%), SLDB (7.97 +35.69%), EBS (10.72 +35.18%), RIGL (9.95 +27.89%),  RUN (17.15 +40.42%),  MEI (13.98 +46.03%), SOI (12.02 +29.95%), HE (10.5 +29.95%).
  • Movers Down: HQY (76.5 -7.35%), AA (39 -8.12%), CENX (18.83 -6.6%), FTAI (98.16 -7.15%), HELE (64.49 -26.77%), EAT (63.84 -9.79%), FUN (52.7 -8.55%), CMG (57.55 -8.29%), RRGB (6.18 -6.36%), HUBS (469.2 -20.1%), NTNX (54.37 -9.53%), ABR (12.86 -12.79%), MBI (5.06 -7.33%),  LPG (40.13 -8.13%), EURN (16.31 -6.48%).

News After The Close :

    • META to roll back restrictions on Donald Trump’s Instagram and Facebook accounts. (Axios)
    • Hedge Funds are the most short they have ever been on corn. (Bloomberg)
    • Correlations between credit and equities are breaking down. (Bloomberg)
    • LMT awarded a $300.9 mln modification to a previously awarded US Navy contract and awarded another $180.5 mln modification to a previously awarded US Navy contract.
    • OSK awarded a maximum $143.2 mln DLA contract for wheel and tire assemblies 
    • Barrons’s + on NVDA, TTE, MBGYY, AVGO, META, SLB, RNR, CPB, CPNG, WST, GOOG, GOOGL, DHR, CRM, SBK and NED. Mixed on SNOW, NUE, X, CLF .

Buybacks or Repurchases:

  • None of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • VEEV Chief Marketing Officer Stacey Epstein informed co of her decision to resign for personal reasons effective as of July 19.
  • PCT Controller and Principal Accounting Officer Melissa Trednick to resign effective September 30.
  • AAL Chief Commercial Officer Vasu Raja resigns.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: ABBV ABT FCX PNC MAA HRL OC.
  • Stocks Ex Div Monday: ESO ALG
  • SJM increases its quarterly dividend by 1.9% to $1.08/share; 3.8% annual yield.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500+25 NASDAQ 100 +99, Dow Jones +238, Russell 2000 +25. Asia is higher ex Japan and Europe is lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 13.92 from 14.06  yesterday while Bonds at 4.226% from 4.221% Friday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold is higher with Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the YenBitcoin is at $62,355 from $57,711 higher by +3.98% this morning.

 

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  The was definitely some rotation this week given the move into Small Cap.
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials, Real Estate and Healthcare of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical and Financials Energy of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Utilities, Communication Services, Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical Healthcare, Financials and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials and Industrials Consumer Cyclicals of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Energy, Healthcare, Industrials, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Defensive, Energy Utilities and Healthcare of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close:  None of note.
  • Tuesday Before The Open:  BAC MS STT PNC UNH of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BLK +0.40, GS +0.27 of note.
  • Flat:   None of note.
  • Misses:  None of note.
  • Still to Report:   of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance:   None of note.
  • Negative Guidance:   None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:  Huge improvement for NASDAQ and the NYSE.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+4% or down more than -4%):

  • Gap Up: DJT +51.1%, PTVE +4.9%, BNTC +4.1%, SHIP +3.3%, VFS +3.1%, GRAL +2.6%, SMCI +2.4% of note.
  • Gap Down: SEDG -6.1%, CLF -5.9%, SEM -5.7%, BNED -4.7% of note.

Insider Action:  None of note see Insider buying with dumb short selling.   TTSH and CTRN of note see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Stocks making the biggest moves pre-market: AAPL SMCI DJT GS CLF AN TSLA (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Bold and Bloodied Trump Seizes The Moment After Being Shot. (Bloomberg)
  • Barron’s – Tech stocks now out of favor, will they bounce back?  (Barron’s)
  • President Trump was shot Saturday night and is in recovery mode.
  • Trump Media (DJT) soars 55%. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: See above the lead story. (Podcast)

Economic:

  • July NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to stay at -6.0
  • Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and as well as NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices, NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Philadelphia Fed Index and Leading Indicators.

Geopolitical:

  • The President and the Vice President receive updated briefing from Homeland Security and law enforcement officials at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
  • A Press Briefing is held at 2:30 p.m. EDT with Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.
  • President Biden heads to Las Vegas at 4:50 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Speakers      

  • Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks before the Washington Economic Club at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks at 4:30 p.m. EDT.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

M&A Activity and News:

Moving Averages On Major Indexes:  Moves from 90% to 94% of the moving averages are now positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • JonesHealthcare Seaside Summit
    •  UBS Targeted Protein Degradation (TPD) Day
    • H.C. Wainwright Kidney Conference
    • Leerink Partners Therapeutic Forum
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: APWC, CUTR, DXR, STSS
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: LXEO, RVMD
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation:
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Republican National Convention

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.