CAPIS Morning Note – 6/27/24: Let’s Get Ready To Rumble

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.16% at 5477.90 from Tuesday higher by +0.39% at 5469.30. The overnight high was hit at 5,542 at 4:05 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5515.75 at 8:50 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 27 points. The current price is 5534 at 6:05 a.m. EDT […]

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.16% at 5477.90 from Tuesday higher by +0.39% at 5469.30. The overnight high was hit at 5,542 at 4:05 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5515.75 at 8:50 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 27 points. The current price is 5534 at 6:05 a.m. EDT lower by -9.00.

Executive Summary: All eyes are on the Presidential Debate tonight.
  • 5-Year Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Durables Orders and Q1 GDP (revised) are out this morning along with Jobless Claims.
  • Tomorrow is a big day as the latest PCE Core is due out and will alert us to inflation levels.
  • President Biden and Former President Trump debate tonight in format with each have one hand tied behind their back.
  • Short Sellers continue to add to positions. More on this tomorrow morning.
Earnings Out After The Close
  • Beats: WS +0.30, AVAV +0.21, MU +0.14, MLKN +0.13, FUL +0.09, CNXC +0.06, LEVI +0.05, BB +0.02, JEF +0.01 of note.
  • Flat:  None of note.
  • Misses:  None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: ACTU, GLE, LB, MJID, NVA, OSTX, QMMM
    TBN, WBTN, WOK.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:.
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • ADUS announces proposed offering of 1.5 mln shares of its common stock.
    • RXRX intends to offer and sell $200 million of shares of its Class A common stock in an underwritten public offering.
    • WALD files for 29,533,282 shares of common stock (relates to warrants) 
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • .
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares:
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • WALD files for 131,442,733 shares of common stock by selling shareholders
    • GROY files for 2,906,977 shares of common stock by selling shareholder
    • CTGO files for stock offering by selling shareholders
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • PIPE:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • .
  • Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • Biggest Gainers and Losers After The Close Of Note:
    • IIIV +26.3%, VRNA +22.4%, ATEX +16.50%,  BB +8.1%, TSVT +5.8%, FUL +4.8%, CNXC +4.3%, WS +3.9%, FC +2.8%. 
    • LEVI -11.3%, MU -7.1%, RXRX -7.9%, AVAV -6.9%, ADUS -5.50%. 
  • All Banks passed the Stress Test, 31 Banks were reviewed. There were different levels of passage. (Federal Reserve Release)
  • BA inching higher after resuming widebody deliveries to China. (Reuters)
  • CDC recommends adults 60 and older may receive single dose of RSV vaccine. (CDC Release)
  • LMT awarded $534 mln U.S. Navy contract modification.

Buybacks or Repurchases:

  • None of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • RKT appoints Heather Lovier as COO; succeeds Bill Emerson who is staying on as President. 
  • MKC promotes Marcos Gabriel to Executive Vice President and CFO, effective December 1; succeeds Mike Smith who is retiring on February 28, 2025 
  • CTRI announces that Bill Fehrman will step down as President and CEO to take the CEO role at American Electric Power (AEP); Paul Caudill appointed interim CEO.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today:
  • JEF increased its dividend by 16.7%.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 -10.50, NASDAQ 100 -49.25, Dow Jones -85, Russell 2000 -3.42. Asia is lower while Europe is lower this morning ex Germany. VIX Futures are at 13.95 from 14.10  yesterday while Bonds at 4.327% from 4.283% yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. Gold is higher with Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the YenBitcoin is at $61,169 from $61,392 higher by 0.50% this morning.

 

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  
  • Daily Positive Sectors:  Consumer Cyclical, Technology and Materials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Healthcare, Financials and Utilities of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Healthcare and Communication Services of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Defensive and Healthcare of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Industrials, Healthcare and Financials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Financials,  Industrials, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Financials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close:

  • Friday Before The Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  LNN +1.17, APOG +0.40, MKC +0.10, AYI +0.07, SMPL +0.02 of note.
  • Flat:   None of note.
  • Misses: WAG -0.05  of note.
  • Still to Report:  of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance:   None of note.
  • Negative Guidance:  WBA of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Remains awful for NASDAQ and weak for NYSE.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+4% or down more than -4%):

  • Gap Up: VIGL +43.4%, IIIV +20.5%, ATEX +15.7%, VRNA +8%, TSVT +6.9%, NVX +6.3%, BB +4.1%, WS +3.9%, GROY +2.9%, FC +2.9%, FUL +2.9%, RH +2.7%, VIV +2% of note.
  • Gap Down: IP -14.5%, LEVI -14.4%, RXRX -12.3%, ADUS -8.8%, AVAV -7.7%, MU -5.6%, STLA -4.3%, CTRI -3.9%, NG -3.2%, KTB -3%, AYI -2.1%  of note.

Insider Action:   None of note saw Insider buying with dumb short selling.  CTRN saw Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Now Before The Market Opens on Thursday morning. (CNBC)
  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks Making the Biggest Moves Pre-Market: . (CNBC)
  • Market Wrap: US Futures slip ahead of data as Micron drops. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: SpaceX Tender Offers Value Company at $210 Billion. (Bloomberg)
  • 538 Founder Nate Silver says Trump has a 65.7% of winning election. (USA Today)
  • Democrats feuding in Philly, Imperiling Biden’s Reelection. (Bloomberg)
  • Pandemic savings are gone and economy bracing for impact. (Bloomberg)
  • U.S. Office Vacancy Rate may hit 24% by 2026. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg: Odd Lots: The Entrepreneurs who opened U.S. -China Trade. (Podcast)
Geopolitical:
  • President Biden’s Daily Schedule:
    • There is a Daily Briefing scheduled for 10:00 a.m. EDT today.
    • President Biden is still at Camp David preparing for his debate with Donald Trump on Thursday.

Economic:

  • May Durable Orders are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to -1.2% from -0.7%. 
  • Q1 GDP is due out at the same time and is expected to remain at 1.3%.
  • Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
  • Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Speakers      

  • None of note. It’s a miracle. Quiet is nice.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

M&A Activity and News:

  • MNC Capital wishes to buy Vista Outdoor (VSTA) for $42 a share and is trading at $36.

Moving Averages On Major Indexes:  Moves from 80% to 67% of the moving averages now positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Morgan Stanley Life Sciences AI Conference
    • Oppenheimer Life Sciences Summit
    • Stifel European Healthcare Summit
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings:
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls:
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation:
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:
    • AI Product Conference
    • John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference.
    • Spinal Cord Injury Investor Symposium

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

           Upgrades: PBR

Downgrades: CTRI