CAPIS Morning Note – 5/10/24: Stock Higher But Lots of Fedspeak Today.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday higher by 0.51% at 5214.08 from Wednesday lower by -0.001% at 5187.67. The overnight high was hit at 5,260.75 at 5:20 0.m. while the overnight low was hit at 5238.75 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The range overnight is 22 points as of 7:00 a.m. EDT.  Currently, the S&P 500…

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Thursday higher by 0.51% at 5214.08 from Wednesday lower by -0.001% at 5187.67. The overnight high was hit at 5,260.75 at 5:20 0.m. while the overnight low was hit at 5238.75 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The range overnight is 22 points as of 7:00 a.m. EDT.  Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +17.50 points at 7:00 a.m. EDT.

Executive SummaryLots of Fedspeak today to ruin a nice start to the day. Expect overkill on inflation comments.
  • The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is out at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
Earnings Out After The Close
  • Beats: MTD +1.25, GH +0.41, PODD +0.33, HRB +0.32, YELP +0.14, ARRY +0.10, SSP +0.09, DBX +0.08, CHUY +0.06, G+0.05, AKAM +0.03, SOUN +0.02  of note.
  • Flat:  of note.
  • Misses:  U -0.82, ARWR -0.55, EVBG -0.21, MERC -0.14, GDOT -0.11, BW -0.10, BE -0.05, SG -0.05, DIOD -0.03, AAOI -0.02, ZIP -0.01 of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: .
  • New SPACs launched/News:
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • RWAY priced secondary by selling shareholders at $11.50 on 3,75 million.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BTCY: Filed Form S-3. 1,419,047 shares of Common Stock.
    • DNA: Filed Form S-3  18,857,026 shares of commons stock.
    • IIN: Filed up to 4,416,916 Ordinary shares.
    • PACB:Filed 10,551,721 shares of common stock.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • : Pricing of Public Offering of Notes.:
      • BTCY: Filed Form S-3. 1,419,047 shares of Common Stock.
      • DNA: Filed Form S-3  18,857,026 shares of commons stock.
      • IIN: Filed up to 4,416,916 Ordinary shares.
      • PACB:Filed 10,551,721 shares of common stock.
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares:
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
      • ERAS: Files 21.074,651 shares  by Selling Shareholders.
      • ASPI files 1.225,000 shares of common stock by selling shareholder.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CRL: Filed Form S-3. $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • RNA: Filed a Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • PRIM: Filed a Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • ACHR:Filed a $95 million Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • AGNC: Filed a Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • CNSP:  Filed a $75 million Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • CRL: Filed a Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • CRMD: Filed a $150 million Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • LRMR: Filed a $300 million Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • NEON: Filed a $70.91 million Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • PRIM: Filed a Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • RNA: Filed a Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • SBH: Filed a Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • SVRA: Filed a $400 million Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Tender Offer:
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • DOGZ filed a $5 million private placement.
  • Rights Offering:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • Movers of Note: 
    • NTRA +16.2%, SG +14.6%, CDNA +13.4%, GH +12.3%, SOUN +12.2%
    • PGNY -29.8%, AAOI -16.6%, FROG -15.6%, NVTS -12.6%, FIGS -10.7%, SVV -10.3%
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours:  (CNBC)
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up for a 7th day in a row. (Reuters)
    • Feds may crack down on credit card rewards program. (MarketWatch)
    • GameStop (GME) shares rose to their highest level since December.
    • Federal Reserve released summary of the exploratory pilot Climate Scenario Analysis (CSA) exercise that it conducted with six of the nation’s largest banks. (Press Release)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • .
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
  • Stock Splits or News:
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • .

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +17.50, Dow Jones +107, NASDAQ +74, Russell  +11.47.  (as of 8:15 a.m. EDT).  Asia and Europe are higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 13.70 from 14Gold, Silver and Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.463% from 4.506% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the YenBitcoin is at $62,900 from $61,079  by +0.89% this morning.
Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Real Estate, Materials, Utilities and Energy of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Technology of note.
  • One Month Winners: Consumer Defensive, Communication Services, and Utilities of note.
  • Three Month Winners: All but Real Estate led by Energy,  Materials and Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Industrials and Financials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Financials,  Industrials, and Consumer Cyclicals of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Energy,  Technology, Financials, Industrials, and Technology, Consumer Defensive of note.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose Wednesday, extending its longest winning streak of the year.  The blue-chip index gained 0.4%, or 172 points, logging a sixth straight day of gains. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.2%. The S&P 500 fell by just three-hundredths of a point, its smallest move since 2018. All three indexes remain higher to start May after dropping in April.   The slight decline for the benchmark S&P 500 broke a four-day winning streak. Stocks had edged higher in recent days, helped by a batch of solid corporate earnings reports and hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: 

  • Monday Before the Open: 

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  CLMT +0.31, ANIP +0.21, ENB +0.10, DOCN +0.05, SLVM +0.05, ROAD +0.02 of note.
  • Flat:  of note.
  • Misses: SPHR -1.14, AMCX -0.50, NVAX -0.20, DNOW -0.02, AQN -0.02 of note.
  • Still to Report:  of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance:  ROAD NVAX of note.
  • Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+4% or down more than -4%):

  • Gap Up: NVAX +75.8%, NTRA +16.5%, SG +15.7%, ARRY +15.1%, SOUN +14.3%, IAS +11.9%, FNKO +11.9%, GH +11.4%, CDNA +10.8%, ADMA +10.8%, ACIC +9.9%, AMPS +9.9%, ERAS +9.7%, IOVA +8.4%, MTUS +7.2%, CLSK +6.1%, RBA +5.6%, BE +5.5%, IAG +5.5%, GEN +5.2%, EVH +4.8%, AU +4.7%, ORN +4.6%, CRH +4.5%, ODV +4.3%, SABR +4.3%, HCAT +3.9%, AMPL +3.5%, BLNK +3.5%, RNA +3.3%, COLD +3.3%, TSM +3.3%, ONTO +3.2%, EVCM +3.2%, PACB +2.9%, G +2.9%, ACLX +2.8%, SSP +2.8%, PDSB +2.6%, RVNC +2.6%, HRB +2.5%, MUSA +2.4%, AFYA +2.4%, RXRX +2.2%of note.
  • Gap Down: MGNX -69.1%, PGNY -33.8%, AAOI -16.6%, FROG -12.1%, INDI -10.7%, AKAM -10.5%, NVTS -10.4%, AMN -7.4%, YELP -7.1%, ZIP -6.5%, NOTV -6.3%, RWAY -6.2%, COLL -5.3%, WEST -3.9%, ARLO -3.4%, RICK -3.1%, PODD -3.1%, RXT -3.1%, SVRA -2.8%, EXFY -2.8%, ALRM -2.6%, MERC -2.5%, VCTR -2.4%, FIGS -2.1%, GDOT -2%of note.

Insider Action:  No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.   TRUP  and AMH see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens On Friday. (CNBC)
  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks Making the Biggest Moves:   (CNBC)
  • Bank of England closer to a rate cut. (BBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Biden Plan to Hit China With More Tariffs Is Mostly Symbolic. (Bloomberg)
  • Novavax (NVAX) shares spike 120% on Sanofi Covid Deal. (CNBC)
  • Moderna (MRNA) says that FDA delays RSV vaccine approval to end of May. (CNBC)
  • Stock rally pushes on with Fed speaker in focus today: Market Wrap. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Big Take Podcast: Space Junk spawns a billion dollar industry. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update: Score at 100%, Day 4.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • President Biden receives the Daily Briefing at 12:50 p.m. EDT.
    • President Biden holds campaign events in the San Francisco area at 4:15 p.m. EDT, 6:00 p.m. EDT and then heads to Seattle.
    • President Biden holds a campaign event at 10:00 p.m. EDT in Seattle.

Economic:  

  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim) is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 76.5 from 77.10
  •  Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at 9:00 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Dallas President Lorrie Logan speaks at 10:00 a.m. EDT as well.
  • Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks at 12:45 p.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr speaks at 1:30 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity and News:

  • .

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: AA AKAM MAR MAS MORN WDC WY
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: MRNA
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation:
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:
    • American Society of Cell & Gene Therapy Meeting
    • Bitcoin Asia
    • D.A. Davidson Financial Institutions Conference
    • Government Fleet Expo & Conference
    • Jamaica Mining Conference
    • Retina World Congress
    • Sidoti Micro Cap Virtual Conference
    • Spinal Cord Injury Investor Symposium

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades: