Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
The S&P 500 finished Monday higher by 0.06% at 5528.75. Friday higher by 0.74% at 5525.21. Futures are lower this morning by -5 (-0.09%) at 5546 around 6:00 a.m. EDT. The range is now 600 points on the S&P 500 cash for the year, 5500 to 6100. Year to date the S&P 500 is down -6.00% from -6.06% Thursday’s close.
Executive Summary:
Stocks are beginning to trade with less volatility as the VIX is down to 25.15.
Key Events of Note Today:
- Case Shiller and Consumer Confidence out this morning with API Petroleum Data out after the close.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: UHS +0.49, CCK +0.43, CINF +0.38, FFIV +0.32, CVI +0.31, SSD +0.28, WWD +0.23, BYON +0.21, TER +0.13, CDNS +0.08, CR +0.08, WM +0.08, HLIT +0.06 and NUE +0.06 of note. (Greater than $0.05)
- Misses: UFPI -0.26, NE -0.17, PCH -0.14, NOV -0.06, UCTT -0.03, KFRC -0.02 and RMBS -0.01 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- IPOs For The Week: ALEH, EGG, OMSE, YB
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced: None of note.
- Notes Priced: None of note.
- Notes Files: None of note.
- Convertibles Filed: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Private Placements: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- TLSI files for 251,885 share common stock offering by selling shareholders
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- PLX files for $100 million mixed securities shelf offering.
News After The Close:
- First Watch Group (FWRG) acquires 16 franchise restaurants in North and South Carolina for $49 million.
- GD awarded a $727.8 mln US Army contract.
- Okta (OKTA) will replace Berry Global (BERY) in the S&P MidCap 400 effective prior to the opening of trading on Thursday, May 1.
- 10K or Qs Filings/Delays – (Filed), (Delayed) None of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- TDY appoints George Bobb as CEO, effective August 31.
- ARMN announces that Richard Orazietti will step down as CFO; Cameron Paterson will join Aris Mining as CFO in July 2025, ahead of Q2 2025.
Buybacks:
- None of note.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: STZ FUL BANR
- Stocks Ex Div Tuesday of note: None of note.
- EFSC increased its quarterly dividend to $0.30 from $0.29/share.
Stocks Moving Up & Down Yesterday:
- Gap Up: LEG +17.3%, BYON +14.1%, NE +9.3%, CCK +6.2%, WWD +4.1%, OKTA +4.1% of note.
- Gap Down: UCTT -7.9%, PDM -7.5%, NXPI -6.9%, SANM -5.9%, HLIT -4.9%, CVI -4.2%, UFPI -3.4%, UHS -3.2%, CNO -3%, KFRC -2.2%, EZPW -2% of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:40 a.m. EDT)
Futures S&P 500 -1, NASDAQ -19, Dow Jones +164. Europe is higher and Asia higher. Bonds are at 4.235% from 4.262% yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold lower with Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $95,146 from $95,091 higher by $304 at +0.32%.
- Daily Positive Sectors: Real Estate, Utilities, Energy and Financials of note.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Technology and Consumer Defensive of note.
- One Month Winners: Consumer Defensive of note.
- Three Month Winners: Consumer Defensive of note.
- Six Month Winners: Consumer Defensive and Financials of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Financials, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical and Technology of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Materials of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Tuesday After the Close:
- Wednesday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Flat: None of note
- Beats: AZN +1.37, THC +1.24, ASTE +0.42, ZBRA +0.40, HON +0.30, PFE +0.25, PYPL +0.17, RCL +0.16, AMT +0.14, AWI +0.13, UPS +0.11, EAT +0.10, GM +0.10, LH +0.10, SHW +0.10 and SFD +0.10 of note. (Greater than $+0.10)
- Misses: LGIH -0.46, REGN -0.40, EPD -0.07, ARCC -0.04, BP -.02 of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: DEA of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: HLIT PII SANM SPOT UCTT of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D crossed above its 30-day exponential moving average last week.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: VRNA +15.4%, LEG +15%, BYON +14.6%, ABEO +14%, NE +9.6%, ATOM +7.2%, PII +7%, CCK +6.2%, UPS +5.1%, HON +5.1%, LTM +4.7%, OKTA +4.6%, ORIC +4.3%, TWO +3.2%, DB +3.1%, CLVT +3.1%, TVTX +3%, TER +3%, CR +2.9%, ARCB +2.9%, WWD +2.8%, CDP +2.7%, SSD +2.6%, WFRD +2.5%, PTLO +2.2%, SEB +2%of note.
- Gap Down: TLSI -12.4%, UCTT -10.3%, NXPI -8.3%, SANM -5.2%, CNO -4.8%, FHTX -4.6%, FTK -4.2%, KFRC -4.1%, BP -3.9%, ARMN -3.7%, SBSI -3.5%, HLIT -3.2%, NRIX -2.4%, UHS -2.2%, HLT -2.2%of note.
Insider Action: FLWS of note sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None of note see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Bloomberg: Goldman’s David Solomon Says Markets Will “Settle Down” After Disorder. (Bloomberg)
- Market Wrap: Stock Futures erase gains as GM freezes buyback. (Bloomberg)
- China stated that if the U.S. wants resolution, it should stop making threats- dialogue with mutual respect.
- Canada elects Mark Carney as the new Prime Minister of Canada.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he is hopeful large reconciliation bill can pass by July 4. (Politico)
- Trump to modify the tariffs on foreign autos, prevents tariff stacking.
- Coke (KO) keeps 2025 forecast post earnings. (CNBC)
- Merck (MRK) aiming to spend $1 bln on new U.S. factory.
- General Motors (GM) withdraws guidance.
- UPS sees $3.5B in cost savings due to reconfiguration plan and to lay off 20,000 workers due to Amazon downsizing.
- Amazon (AMZN) to show cost of tariffs on each product. Will also launch satellites for Kuiper Internet Network.
- Bloomberg Odd Lots: Understanding the April Bond Yield Spike. (Podcast)
Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.
Economic & Geopolitical:
- Economic Releases:
- February S&P Case Schiller Home Price Index is due out at 9:00 a.m. EDT and expected to remain at 4.7%.
- April Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to drop to 88.3 from 92.90.
- Weekly API Petroleum Institute Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today.
- Fed Speakers are back in Blackout period until next FOMC meeting is concluded.
- President Trump’s Daily Schedule.
- President Trump heads to Michigan at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
- President Trump delivers remarks to the Michigan National Guard at 4:10 p.m. EDT.
M&A Activity and News:
- None of note.
Moving Average Table: Remains at 60% on Equity Indexes. TLT improved more on Monday.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- Morgan Stanley Brazil Healthcare Day
- Shareholder Meetings: CR, GPC
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: CGON, RLMD, SNTI, TARA
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- AACR
- ABEO: PDUFA Date for Pz-cel EB-101 (COL7A1)
- ACTU: Data Presentation on Elraglusib
- VCNX: Data Presentation for Pepinemab
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- Advanced Clean Transportation Expo
- American Urology Association
- Auto Shanghai
- NI Connect
- RSA Conference
- Trickle Research Microcap Conference
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
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- Upgrades: CHRD CR FANG DSP MGNI NEXN TTD MATX MSTR
- Downgrades: LU
