CAPIS Morning Note – 3/7/25: Jobs Friday. Can Futures Hold Into The Open?

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday -1.78% at 5738.52. Wednesday finished higher by 1.12% at 5842.63. Futures are higher this morning by +20 on the S&P 500 at 5:55 a.m. EDT. Executive Summary: Back and forth we go. The S&P 500 broke back below 5800. The range moves from 300 to […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning TradingThe S&P 500 finished Thursday -1.78% at 5738.52.  Wednesday finished higher by 1.12% at 5842.63.  Futures are higher this morning by +20 on the S&P 500 at 5:55 a.m. EDT.

Executive Summary:  Back and forth we go. The S&P 500 broke back below 5800. The range moves from 300 to 400 points on the S&P 500 for the year, 5700 to 6100. Futures are higher overnight into Jobs Friday. This is an abbreviated updated due to travel. We will be back to full production on Monday.

Breaking:  

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Monthly Jobs Data is out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
  • Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: GAP +0.16, DOMO +0.11, AVGO +0.16, FNKO +0.08, LOCO +0.07, IOT +0.04, COO +0.01,  of note.
  • Misses:  BBAI -0.31, ASUR -0.29, COST -0.07, SWBI -0.01, HPE -0.01, GWRE -0.01 of note.
Capital Raises:
  • IPOs For The Week: APUS, FATN, KMTS. OMGE, SAGT,
    WGRX
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note. 
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
  • Notes Priced:
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • SLDB files for 975,496 shares and 364,990 shares of common stock by separate selling shareholders.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • XERS  files $250 million mixed shelf.
    • SERV files $300 million mixed shelf offering.
    • NUVB files mixed shelf securities offering.
  • Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
    •  

Biggest Movers Up & Down Yesterday:

  • Movers Up:  +16.3% AVGO, GAP +15.4%, WBA +5.6%, of note.
  • Movers Down:  LUNR -28.9%, HPE -17.8%, BBAI -12.80%, COST -1.2% of note.

News After The Close:

  • Hewlett Packard Enterprises (HPE) misses by -0.01 and guides Q2 EPS and revenues below consensus.
  • Costsco (COST) misses estimates but not revenues.
  • Broadcom (AVGO) beats on revenues and guides Q2 revenues higher.
  • GAP beats earnings by $0.16.
  • Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) seals $10 billion take private deal with Sycamore. (WSJ)
  • Intuitive Machines (LUNR) falls 25% after confirming Athena lander is not in correct attitude on the moon’s surface. (CNN)
  • FTC sues to block GTCR’s purchase of Surmodics (SRDX).
  • Canada to delay second phase of retaliatory tariffs against U.S. to 4/2. (Bloomberg)
  • 10K or Qs Filings/Delays –  (Filed), TRMB (Delayed) of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • LVS Chairman and CEO Robert Goldstein to transition to senior advisor next March and COO Patrick Dumont to replace him.

Buybacks

  • BRBR approves $300 million share reuprchase.. 

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today:
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: 
  • GAP increases dividend by 10%.
  • TNL increases quarterly dividend to $0.56 from $0.50, up 12%.
  • IDT raises quarterly by 20%.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +10, NASDAQ +55, Dow Jones +37 . Europe is lower with Asia lower ex China. Bonds are at 4.253% from 4.28% yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold higher with Silver lower and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $89,079 from $90,258 higher by $+50 by +0.03%.7

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release)
  • Daily Positive Sectors: None were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: All were lower.
  • One Month Winners:  Real Estate, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Healthcare of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Financials and Healthcare of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Financials, Utilities, Communication Services, Technology and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Financials, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive, Materials and Real Estate of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note
  • Monday Before The Open: FNV BNTX

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Flat:  of note
  • Beats: None of note.
  • MissesGCO -0.05, AQN -0.03 of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance:  None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: the A/D  fell to major support making new lows, before a rebound and just made a new low.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up:  of note.
  • Gap Down:  of note.

Insider Action:  see Insider Buying with dumb short selling.  see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Market Wrap: . (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg: . (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: . (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Market Opens. (CNBC)

Economic:

  •  February Nonfarm Payroll is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 159,000 from 143,000. 
  •  The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.00%.
  •  Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

    Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)

  • President Trump’s Daily Schedule.
    • President Trump signs Executive Orders at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
    • President Trump addresses the Bitcoin Meeting at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
    • President Trump heads to Mar-A-Largo for the weekend.
  • Not updating Fed speakers today.

M&A Activity and News:

  • .

Moving Average Table:  Moves from 17% to 9%.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

    • Sellside Conferences:
      • Barclays Select Series: Industrial Energy & Infrastructure
      • JP Morgan UK Banks Forum
      • Morgan Stanley Energy & Power Conference
      • Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference
      • Stifel Consumer Executive Ski Summit
      • UBS Nuclear Conference
    • Shareholder Meetings: 
    • Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: 
    • Update: None of note.
    • Fireside Chat
    • R&D Day: None of note.
    • FDA Presentation:
    • Industry Meetings or Events:
      • Daniel Energy THRIVE Energy Conference
      • Centurion One Growth Conference
      • NABE Economic Policy Conference
      • Women in Data Science Conference

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

      • Upgrades:
      • Downgrades: