Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Tuesday lower by -1.22% at 5778.15. Monday lower by -1.76% at 5849.72. The overnight high was hit at 5844.25 at 4:45 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5797.25 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 47 points. The current price is higher at 7:00 a.m. by +0.32% at 5807.75 higher by +19.25 points.
Executive Summary: Well it just got uglier. The S&P 500 broke below 5800. The range moves from 300 to 400 points on the S&P 500 for the year, 5700 to 6100. Futures are higher but only modestly despite lots of negative Tariff news although President Trump’s speech to Congress was a positive.
Breaking: ADP Payrolls rose only 77,000 versus estimates of 145,000. Commerce Secretary expect afternoon announcement to lower tariffs.
Key Events of Note Today:
- Weekly Mortgage Demand jumped 20% as interest rates have fallen to the lowest level since last year.
- Several economic releases out today including the Fed Beige Book at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: FLUT +0.98, CRWD +0.17, CTOS +0.08, CRDO +0.08, BOX +0.01 of note.
- Misses: AVAV -0.27, EOLS -0.12, SQM -0.07, ROST -0.01 of note.
- IPOs For The Week: APUS, BMGL, EPSM, FATN, MCRP, RYET,
WGRX - New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- ED agrees to issue 6,300,000 of its common shares.
- Notes Priced:
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- MULN files for 10,000,000 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholders.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- JPM files $150 bln mixed shelf securities offering.
- LOT files $1.4 bln mixed shelf securities offering
- Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
Biggest Movers Up & Down Yesterday:
- Movers Up: SWIM +18.3%, CTOS +7.7%, ATRO +7.7%, TXO +6.4%, EOLS +3.1% of note.
- Movers Down: AVAV -17.5%, CRWD -9.6%, BOX -6.7%, AJG -3.1% of note.
News After The Close:
- CIFR announces February 2025 operational update; mines 180 Bitcoin.
- Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick notes that the Trump administration could announce tariff relief on Mexican and Canadian goods as soon as tomorrow. (Bloomberg)
- NDAQ reports February volume statistics; U.S. equity options volume of 306 mln contracts compared to 302 mln contracts in January.
- Albertson’s (ACI) to join S&P 400.
- GOOGL higher after urging the DOJ to reverse course on breaking up the company.
- 10K or Qs Filings/Delays – (Filed), NFE SOUN FLG LOB FIP MRVI TBBK(Delayed) of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- COKE approves a 10-for-1 split of the Company’s Common Stock and Class B Common Stock.
- FTV appoints Mark Okerstrom as CFO, effective March 24.
- SAGE CMO Dr. Laura Gault to step down, effective March 21; Mike Quirk, Chief Scientific Officer, will assume key responsibilities on an interim basis.
- CGAU appoints David Hendriks as COO, effective April 15; current COO Paul Chawrun to leave on March 31.
- AOSL Executive Chairman Dr. Mike F. Chang resigned, effective immediately.
Buybacks
- INGM approves a share repurchase plan for up to $75.0 mln of common stock.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: LRCX CI ODFL IR FOXA FOX HAL EQH AVY ONB SLM PJT WSC HWC AGO AVT PVH NPO CNK CAKE VAC
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow:
- WH increases quarterly cash dividend 8% to $0.41/share from $0.38/share.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:05 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +4, NASDAQ +59, Dow Jones -12 and Russell 2000 +4.37 . Europe is higher with Asia higher ex Australia. Bonds are at 4.223% from 4.14% yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $90,344 from $83,603 higher by $+2539 by +2.89%.
- Daily Positive Sectors: Technology was higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Financials, Industrials, Consumer Defensive, Consumer Cyclicals and Utilities were lower.
- One Month Winners: Real Estate, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Healthcare of note.
- Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Financials and Healthcare of note.
- Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Financials, Utilities, Communication Services, Technology and Consumer Defensive of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Financials, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive, Materials and Real Estate of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Wednesday After the Close:
- Thursday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Flat: of note
- Beats: FL+0.14, REVG +0.13, RSKD +0.06, ANF +0.03, CPB +0.02, SSYS +0.01 of note.
- Misses: DIN -0.48, THO -0.09 of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: CRDO CTOS of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: FL CPB ROST AVAV of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: the A/D fell to major support making new lows, before a rebound and just made a new low.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: ATRO +15.2%, MULN +10.2%, SWIM +9.9%, MRNA +8.3%, EOSE +6.6%, CMBT +5.7%, CIFR +5.1%, ACI +4.4%, SOUN +3.8%, LOB +3.2%, EC +3.2%, TXO +3%, SGRY +2.5%, FLG +2.3%, CTOS +2%,of note.
- Gap Down: AVAV -20.1%, EOLS -10%, BOX -7.8%, CRWD -7.6%, GOGL -6.6%, THO -6.6%, TBBK -4.8%, LOT -3.2%, SAGE -3%, of note.
Insider Action: VERX ODFL AUPH NOG see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. STRL seeS Insider Buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Market Wrap: Stock Futures rise as Traders expect Tariff relief. (Bloomberg)
- Bloomberg: Trump Hails Tariffs As U.S. Economy Barrels Into Trade Wars. (Bloomberg)
- Foot Locker (FL) weighed down by discounts and weak demand. (Bloomberg)
- Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: NVDA BOX DLTR F. (CNBC)
- ANF posts weak guidance. (CNBC)
- 5 Things To Know Before the Market Opens. (CNBC)
Economic:
- January Factory Orders are expected to rise to 1.30% from -0.90% at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
- At the same time, February ISM Services are expected to rise to 53% from 52.80%.
- ADP Payroll is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 145,000 from 183,000..
- Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
- President Trump’s Daily Schedule.
- Press Briefing at 1:00 p.m. EDT by White House Press Secretary.
- No Fed speakers today.
M&A Activity and News:
- AJG to acquire Woodruff Sawyer for $1.2 bln.
Moving Average Table: Remain at 13%.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
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- Sellside Conferences:
- Citi Global Property CEO Conference
- Cowen Health Care Conference
- Evercore Housing and Building Products Symposium
- Jefferies Renewables & Clean Energy Conference
- KeyBanc Emerging Technology Summit
- Morgan Stanley Energy & Power Conference
- Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference
- Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference
- RBC Global Financial Institutions Conference
- Scotiabank TMT Conference
- Stifel Consumer Executive Ski Summit
- T.D. Cowen HealthCare Conference
- Sellside Conferences:
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- Shareholder Meetings: AMTM, FICO, HP, KLIC, OM
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: ALXO, LOGI, MSTR, NVST, WAT
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- Daniel Energy THRIVE Energy Conference
- NABE Economic Policy Conference
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
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- Upgrades: TKO RDNT UNM RCL PBR GOLD GEV CB ANET AIG
- Downgrades:
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