CAPIS Morning Note – 3/14/25: Stocks Higher This Morning, But Will be Lower For The Week

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -1.39% at 5521.52. Wednesday higher by 0.49% at 5599.30. Yesterday was the fifth down -1% or more day of the month. Futures are higher this morning by +45 (+0.81%) on the S&P 500 at 7:00 a.m. EDT. Current level is 5573.25 on the […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning TradingThe S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -1.39% at 5521.52. Wednesday higher by 0.49% at 5599.30. Yesterday was the fifth down -1% or more day of the month. Futures are higher this morning by +45 (+0.81%) on the S&P 500 at 7:00 a.m. EDT. Current level is 5573.25 on the Futures of the S&P 500.

Executive Summary:  Back and forth we go. The S&P 500 is still below 5600. The range is 600 to 500 points on the S&P 500 for the year, 5500 to 6100. Futures are higher this morning and 5500 is now support. Moving above 5600 would be a big deal. Baby steps.

Breaking:  

Chart of the Day: Vodafone Group (VOD) just hit our Short Squeeze List. A pretty strong chart in a weak market.

 

Key Events of Note Today:

  • .

Notable Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: ULTA +1.33, RBRK +0.21, TTAN +0.09, SMTC +0.08, PD +0.06, BLNK +0.02, DOCU +0.01, WPM +0.01 of note.
  • Misses: XPOF -0.55, CCI -0.10, EVCM -0.06, ZUMZ -0.02 of note.
Capital Raises:
  • IPOs For The Week: APUS, FATN, KMTS. OMGE, SAGT,
    WGRX
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note. 
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • OTEX increases its NCIB by $150 mln to purchase for cancellation up to a maximum aggregate value of $450 mln of its common shares
    • ALZN: Form S-3.. 75,775,110 Shares of Common Stock
    • EVAX: FORM F-3 – $50,000,000 Ordinary Shares
    • SHPH Closing of $5.75 Million Underwritten Offering
  • Notes Priced:
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • VTLE files mixed shelf securities offering
    • ARBB: Form F-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf
  • Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
    • ITGR Upsize and Pricing of Convertible Notes Offering

Biggest Movers Up & Down Yesterday:

  • Movers Up: RDUS +108.6%, AAOI +81.4%, RBRK +14.9%, SMTC +11.8%, DOCU +7.6%,  TTAN +6.9%, ULTA +5.7%, PD +4%, CCI +3.8% of note.
  • Movers Down: XPOF -26.4%, ATYR -10.3%, EVCM -6.1%, ZUMZ -4.4%, VUZI -3.7% of note.

News After The Close:

  • Crown Castle (CCI) to sell its Fiber segment for $8.5 bln.
  • EQT Corp (EQT) to acquire Crown Castle’s (CCI) Small Cells Solutions business in a transaction valuing it at approximately $4.25 bln.
  • AAOI issues to AMZN a warrant to purchase up to an aggregate of 7,945,399 shares of common stock.
  • Apple (AAPL) planning an AirPod feature enabling live translation on in-person conversations into different languages. (Bloomberg).
  • BAESY awarded $357 mln U.S. Army contract modification.
  • LMT awarded $1.93 bln U.S. Air Force contract modification.
  • NOC awarded $267 mln U.S. Navy contract modification.
  • 10K or Qs Filings/Delays –  (Filed),   (Delayed) of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • WMB announces that executive vice president and chief operating officer, Michael Dunn, will retire on May 2, 2025. 
  • ORLY approves a 15-for-1 split of its common stock, to be effected in form of a one-time special stock dividend.  
  • MSA accepts resignation of CFO Lee B. McChesney, effective March 21; Elyse L. Brody appointed interim CFO.
  •  CRL CFO Daniel Mahoney to depart, effective April 11; Chad Holmes, Chief Corporate Development Officer and former CFO, will serve as interim CFO.

Buybacks

  • CCI announces $3.0 bln repurchase plan.
  • BV authorizes share repurchase program totaling $100.0 mln.
  • KEY authorizes up to $1.0 bln for share repurchases.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: META KO TMO GILD ADP CB WM MSI WMB CRH DLR NWG CCI NDAQ AME GRMN VRSK XEL EXR EBAY TKO GeN DVN
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: 
  • IVT increases its quarterly dividend by 5% to $0.2376/share.
  • TEL announces 9% increase in quarterly cash dividend to $0.71/share
  • WPC increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.890/share from prior amount of $0.880/share
  • WPM increases its dividend by 6.5% to $0.165/share

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:15 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +48, NASDAQ +229, Dow Jones +231, Russell 2000 +17.70. Europe is higher with Asia higher ex China. Bonds are at 4.324% from 4.337% yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold higher with Silver higher and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $83,358 from $82,697 higher by $3006 by +3.75%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release)
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Materials and Utilities were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology, Real Estate and Financials were lower.
  • One Month Winners:  Real Estate, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Healthcare of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Financials and Healthcare of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Financials, Utilities, Communication Services, Technology and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Financials, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive, Materials and Real Estate of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before The Open: None of note.

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Flat:  None of note
  • Beats:  LI +0.66, BKE +0.09 of note.
  • Misses: MRC -0.48, GOGO -0.25 of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: RBRK TTAN of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: LI DOCU EVCM ULTA XPOF of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: the A/D  fell to major support making new lows, before a rebound and continues to make new lows.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: RDUS +109.4%, AAOI +55.1%, CLLS +22.5%, RBRK +20.7%, SMTC +12.3%, DOCU +9.4%, CCI +8%, ULTA +7.2%, AFYA +7%, NRIX +6.1%, TTAN +5.9%, BLNK +5.5%, VTLE +4.6%, PD +4.5%, PPC +4.3%, RLX +4.3%, IPG +3.4%, ALCO +3.4%, ALAB +2.6%, WRD +2.5%, EGY +2.4%, PLTR +2.3%, BV +2% of note.
  • Gap Down: XPOF -33.3%, STRO -14.4%, LI -5.1%, IVT -3.7%, AVD -3.2%, ZUMZ -3%, EVCM -2.6%, CPA -2.5%, WMB -2.1% of note.

Insider Action:  BYON BBY see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Market Wrap: Futures rise after selloff, Gold breaks through $3000. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg:  Gold Breaks Through $3,000. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: CMG LI DOCU. (CNBC)
  • S&P 500 follows the NASDAQ into correction territory. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Odd Lots – Papal Bettting (Podcast)

Bolded Royal Blue means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic:

  • March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 64.5 from 64.70. 
  • Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)

  • President Trump’s Daily Schedule.
    • President Trump signs Executive Orders at 12:00 p.m. EDT.
    • President Trump delivers remarks at the Department of Justice at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
    • President Trump heads to Mar-a-Largo at 4:40 p.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Speakers are in blackout now until March 20th when the latest meeting has concluded.

M&A Activity and News:

  • Radius Recycling (RDUS) to be acquired by a subsidiary of Toyota Tsusho America for $30.00 per share.

Moving Average Table:  Remains at 0% today. Fourth day in a row at 0. Ouch!!

Meeting & Conferences of Note: (Not updated today, back tomorrow)

    • Sellside Conferences:
      • JP Morgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Management Conference
      • Mizuho US Consumer Industrials & TMT Summit
    • Shareholder Meetings: BLBD, HEI 
    • Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: CTH, OI, PPC 
    • Update: None of note.
    • Fireside Chat
    • R&D Day: None of note.
    • FDA Presentation:
    • Industry Meetings or Events:
      • FranklinCovey Impact Conference

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

      • Upgrades: GDOT PM RVLV PTON NUVL DHR CMG CCI 
      • Downgrades: STRO