Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.76% at 5994.57. Friday lower by -0.50% at 6040.53. The overnight high was hit at 6069 at 6:00 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5987 at 12:05 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 82 points. The current price is lower at 7:00 a.m by -0.15% at 6013.25 down -9 points.
Executive Summary: The S&P 500 fell by -1% or more on three days in January. So we clustered with multiple -1% losses during last month. Key will be if February can break the clustering pattern. Monday the S&P 500 had its first down day of more than -1% at the open but finished with a loss of less than -1%. A wild overnight session with a range of 82 points.
Articles of Note:
*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted sources like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.
Key Events of Note Today:
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- Factory Orders and API Petroleum Report are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and 4:00 p.m. EDT.
- 4 Week Bill Auction at 11:30 p.m. EDT.
Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart in The Morning Note? Simply send an email to us at [email protected] and we will more than likely show it.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: NJR +0.23, WWD +0.17, CLX +0.15, FN +0.12, BRBR +0.10, KD +0.10, MTG +0.05, CBT +0.04, PLTR +0.03, NXPI +0.02, CSWC +0.01, DOC +0.01, KFRC +0.01 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: EG -4.12, JJSF -0.26, of note.
- IPOs For The Week: FBGL, TTAM
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- GHRS announces proposed public offering of $150 mln of ordinary shares.
- SEI: Form S-3ASR .. 16,229,566 Shares of Class A Common Stock
- DFLI: Form S-3.. 1,412,158 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Outstanding
Warrants
- Notes Priced:
- CLF – Upsizing and Pricing of $850 Million of Senior Unsecured Guaranteed Notes due 2031
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- TBBB files for 17.5 mln Class A common share offering by selling shareholders.
- SEI files for 16,229,566 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholders.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- ANRO files $300 mln mixed shelf securities offering.
- CTCX: Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf
- KITT: Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf
- PIPE:
- Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
Biggest Movers Up & Down Last Week:
- Movers Up: PLTR +22.2%, USLM +4.1%, BRBR +3.2%, NXPI +3.1%, MTG +2.7%, ACM +2.5%, KFRC +2.2% of note.
- Movers Down: SYNA -7.7%, JJSF -5%, WWD -3.9%, CLX -3%, FN -2.9%, KD -2.5% of note.
News After The Close:
- China retaliates against the U.S. with tariffs against the U.S.
- President Trump will speak with Chinese President Xi within “the next couple of days.” Reuters
- President Trump delays Canada tariffs by 30 days following call with Prime Minister Trudeau.
- CIFR announces January 2025 operational update; mines 219 Bitcoin.
- AVAV secures $288 million delivery order on $990 million contract with U.S. Army.
- LMT awarded $551 mln U.S. Navy contract.
- PBR announces Q4 production and sales update; achieves all its production targets in 2024
- 10K or Qs Delays – none of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- SYNA announces that Michael Hurlston steps down as President and CEO; CFO Ken Rizvi appointed interim CEO.
- LITE appoints Michael Hurlston as President and CEO, succeeding Alan Lowe, who is retiring.
- BKV CFO John T. Jimenez to retire on May 15; David Tameron named successor.
- AMG Chairman Reuben Jeffery III to retire, effective immediately; Dwight Churchill named Chairman.
Buybacks:
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: MET SXT BANR DKL WTTR SRCE SPH BY
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: SLB BRO ATR IDA LPG UVSP
- WWD increases quarterly cash dividend 12% to $0.28/share.
- USLM increases dividend.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:15 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 -, NASDAQ – , Dow Jones – and Russell 2000 – . Europe is higher ex the FTSE with Asia higher except for Australia. Bonds are at 4.588% from 4.515% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent lower with Natural Gas lowher as well. Gold and Silver lower with Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $99,461 from $95,466 lower by $-2,170 down -2.14%. Additional Comments: The S&P 500 has now broken 6000 and now 5900 has become support.
- Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Energy were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials and Financials were lower.
- One Month Winners: All except for Technology of note.
- Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
- Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Utilities and Industrials of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy, Healthcare, Communication Services, Materials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Tuesday After the Close:
- Wednesday Before The Open: (Above $10 Billion Market Cap)
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: IT +2.20, MPC +0.75, REGN +0.72, CNC +0.31, EL +0.30, AMCR +0.28, RACE +0.19, PFE +0.16, MRK +0.11, WTW +0.10, J +0.07, PYPL +0.07, PNR +0.06, BALL +0.04, EPD +0.04, KKR +0.04, ARMK +0.03, ENR +0.02, PEP +0.02, WEC +0.01 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: SPOT -0.23, INMD -0.11, UBS -0.06, GPK -0.04, CNH -0.03 of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support, bounced, made new lows and now is FALLING AGAIN.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: PLTR +19.8%, TEM +7.1%, KFRC +4.2%, CNC +3.7%, AUDC +3.6%, RYAM +3.1%, AXTA +2.9%, BRBR +2.8%, LITE +2.7% of note.
- Gap Down: BCTX -19.8%, UBS -5.6%, SYNA -5%, VOD -4%, FN -3.8%, TBBB -3.1%, ANRO -3.1%, UFI -3%, LWAY -3%, JJSF -2.1% of note.
Insider Action: PBF and ASH see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. KALV see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Lead Story on Bloomberg: China Hits Back Against Trump Tariffs. (Bloomberg)
- Market Wrap: Stocks Futures click lower on trade war worries. (Bloomberg)
- Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: . (CNBC)
- President Trump says Elon Musk will be prevented from dismantling government without his approval, but their relationship remains strong. WSJ
- Estee Lauder (EL) to cut 7,000 jobs. (Bloomberg)
- Pfizer (PFE) beat estimates. (Reuters)
- Merck (MRK) is lower as it reduced guidance and cut shipments of Gardasil to China. (CNBC)
- Pepsi (PEP) is lower. (WSJ)
- Bloomberg Bug Take: The Tarrif Wars are on. (Podcast)
Economic:
- December Factory Orders are expected to grow by -0.30% from -0.40% when released at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
- Weekly API Petroleum Report is due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
- President Trump’s Daily Schedule.
- At 2:00 p.m. President Trump signs Executive Orders.
- At 4:00 p.m. President Trump meets with Israeli President Netanyahu then holds a press conference with him at 5:10 p.m. EDT.
- At 5:40 p.m. President Trump has dinner with Netanyahu.
- Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
- Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
- Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Phillip Jefferson speaks at 7:30 p.m. EDT.
M&A Activity and News:
Moving Average Table: Drops from 70% to 37%.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
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- Sellside Conferences:
- Oppenheimer Healthcare Winter CEO & Investor Summit
- Sellside Conferences:
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- Shareholder Meetings: BEN, DLB, EMR, RNAZ, ROK
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: IBM, TXN.
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: MRUS: Biologics License Application for
Zenocutuzumab - Industry Meetings or Events:
- Dynatrace Perform
- LD Micro Summit
- Sky Harbour First Half of 2025 Investor Conference
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
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- Upgrades: NWSA FCCO TMCI NVS MA GRAB BPRN APTV
- Downgrades: CLMT
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