Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 0.01% at 5956.06. Tuesday lower by -0.47% at 5965.25. The overnight high was hit at 6009.50 at 6:45 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5960.75 at 8:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 50 points. The current price is higher at 7:00 a.m. by 0.61% at 6007.25 higher by +36.50 points.
Executive Summary: Last week we noted there could be a retest of 6100 and then 6000 on the S&P 500. That is what happened on Friday. Monday we broke below 6000. So since December the S&P 500 has traded in a range of 6000 to 6100 and now that moves to 6100 to 5900. Futures are higher and just over 6000.
Articles of Note: “Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates Remain Elevated for Auto and Credit Cards.” by NY Fed.
*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted sources like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.
Daily Chart: Nvidia (NVDA) is a Type 3 Shorts Correct. If shorts cover, then it could be a potential bottom. Post earnings the stock is up 2.40% this morning.
Key Events of Note Today:
- Q1 GDP, Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales are out today along with weekly Natural Gas Inventories and Weekly Jobless Claims.
- 4-Week Bill Auction at 11:30 a.m. EDT
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: SDRL +1.83, ROOT +1.75, MARA +1.37, MIRM +1.26, UHS +0.78, ACAD +0.64, SBGI +0.61, CDNA +0.59, VAC +0.34 of note. (>+0.30)
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: IONQ -0.68, CORZ -0.51, PARA -0.24, BYND -0.20, APA -0.17 of note. (>-0.15)
- IPOs For The Week: APUS, BMGL, EPSM, FATN, MCRP, RYET,
WGRX - New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- IONQ may offer and sell shares of its common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $500 mln.
- KWE: FORM F-3 – Up to 8,075,758 Common Shares.
- Notes Priced:
- BSX completion of €1.5 billion offering of senior notes.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- KDP announces that a subsidiary of JAB Holding Company will sell an aggregate of 73,000,000 shares of KDP common stock through a proposed registered public offering.
- EXLS files for 1,551,970 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholder.
- DINO files for 16,057,699 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholder.
- STBX: Form F-3.. 3,210,000 Class A Ordinary Shares Offered by Selling Shareholders
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- MNKD files mixed shelf securities offering.
- IONQ files mixed shelf securities offering.
- ZVIA files $50 mln mixed shelf securities offering.
- DINO files mixed shelf securities offering.
- Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
Biggest Movers Up & Down Yesterday:
- Movers Up: ROOT +16.5%, NTNX +15.3%, AMBA +10.5%, SNOW +9.8%, LZ +9%, RSI +8.7%, ESTA +8.6%, MARA +7.6%, GRBK +7.3% of note.
- Movers Down: IBTA -37.5%, TNDM -16.9%, TDOC -15.4%, AAOI -10%, SG -9.7%, EBAY -8.9%, HNST -7.4%, MGNI -6.2%, AI -6.1%, KTOS -4.8% of note.
News After The Close:
- Core Scientific (CORZ) announces an expansion of its relationship with CoreWeave, an AI Hyperscaler; new agreement brings an additional $1.2 billion in contracted revenue across Core Scientific’s Denton TX location.
- Nvidia (NVDA) beats on earnings and revenues, guides higher.
- Snowflake (SNOW) beats on earnings and revenues, guides higher.
- GD awarded $655 mln U.S. Navy contract.
- Moderna (MRNA) lower by -4% after the Trump administration contemplates pulling bird flu vaccine funding.
- 10K or Qs Filings/Delays – SMCI (Filed), GOGO (Delayed) of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- IONQ announces that the company’s Board of Directors has appointed Niccolo de Masi as President and Chief Executive Officer.
- Dr. Ram Ramanan, with more than three decades in product innovation leadership at companies including Bloom Energy, to become Chief Technology Officer at ERII..
Buybacks:
- JOE increases the stock repurchase authority to $100 million.
- XEL increases quarterly dividend to $0.57/share from $0.5475/share.
- ALL authorizes a $1.5 bln share repurchase program of outstanding common stock.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: MAR DAL LH TRU VIV TAP KNSL LPX CGNX CATY PBF MNR
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow:
- AMSF increases quarterly dividend 5.4% to $0.39/share from $0.37/share.
- ALL increases quarterly common stock dividend 8.7% to $1.00/share from $0.92/share.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:10 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +37, NASDAQ +172, Dow Jones +117 and Russell 2000 +13.43. Europe is lower ex the FTSE with Asia higher ex China. Bonds are at 4.292% from 4.283% yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold and Silver are lower with Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $86,266 from $87,692 higher by $2,500 by 2.98%.
- Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Utilities, Materials and Consumer Cyclicals of note.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Defensive, Healthcare, Real Estate, Energy and Financials of note.
- One Month Winners: Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
- Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
- Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Technology, Utilities and Industrials of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
- Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Materials, Financials, Healthcare and Utiltities of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Thursday After the Close:
- Friday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: TD +0.64, ACIW+0.50, RY +0.37, GOLF +0.33, SJM+0.24 of note. (>+0.20)
- Flat: of note.
- Misses: BECN -0.32, WMD -0.18, XRAY -0.17, WRBY -0.09 of note. (>-0.09)
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: the A/D fell to major support making new lows, before a rebound and is now back to struggling.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: ROOT +20.8%, CORZ +17.7%, NTNX +15.2%, SNOW +13%, MARA +12.7%, LTBR +12.2%, AMBA +11.4%, MQ +11.1%, CPRX +11%, LZ +8.6%, MNKD +7.1%, GRBK +6.5%, LFST +6.1%, BLTE +5.9%, ARDT +5.6%, CERT +5.4%, EVTC +5.1%, ATEC +5%, URBN +4.9%, ZVIA +4.8%, TWI +4.8%, WHD +4.6%, SPCE +4.4%, HEI +4.3%, PSTL +4.1%, INVH +3.9%, BLND +3.8%, MIRM +3.7%, ORA +3.7%, SDGR +3.7%, KROS +3.7%, ADTN +3.7%, JOBY +3.7%, SBGI +3.7%, TALO +3.6%, ONC +3.5%, PRG +3.3%, SNPS +3.2%, RSI +3.1%, VTOL +2.9%, KW +2.8%, UHS +2.7%, ZLAB +2.7%, GTN +2.6%, JOE +2.5%, NMFC +2.4%, MGNI +2.3%, VSEC +2.3% of note.
- Gap Down: IBTA -33.6%, TNDM -16.9%, TDOC -15.7%, EFXT -12.4%, ERII -11%, SG -9.9%, FWRD -9.1%, HAFN -9.1%, PSTG -8.7%, GEO -8.5%, AI -8%, EBAY -7.8%, AAOI -6.5%, DQ -5.8%, BAK -5.6%, XRAY -4.9%, BYND -4.5%, TKO -4.1%, PBR -4.1%, ECPG -4%, GDRX -3.9%, OVV -3.7%, MRNA -3.5%, CRM -3.4%, RACE -3.3%, MFH -3.3%, HNST -3.2%, RVMD -3.1%, HLN -3.1%, SMCI -3%, IONQ -3%, KDP -2.6%, KTOS -2.6%, MDXG -2.5%, PRVA -2.3%, FSK -2.1%, BWLP -2.1%, BBSI -2% of note.
Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Market Wrap: Stock Futures rise on Nvidia. (Bloomberg)
- Bloomberg: U.S. Inflation is heating up again. (Bloomberg)
- Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: NVDA SNOW CRM EBAY. (CNBC)
- Trump threatens EU with 25% tariffs. (CNBC)
- 5 Things To Know Before the Market Opens. (CNBC)
- Bloomberg: Odd Lots – Navigating Geopolitical shocks. (Podcast)
Economic:
- Weekly Jobless Claims are released at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
- Q1 GDP (second estimate) is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to remain at 2.30%.
- January Durable Orders are expected to come in at 1.80% from -2.20 when released at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
- January Pending Home Sales are expected to come in at -0.8% from -5.50% when released at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
- Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are released at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
- President Trump’s Daily Schedule.
- President Trump receives Intelligence Briefing at 11:15 p.m. EDT.
- President Trump meets with the Prime Minister of the U.K. from 12:15 p.m. EDT to 3:00 p.m. EDT.
- Six Fed Speakers today from 7:30 a.m. EDT to 3:05 p.m. EDT include Barkin, Schmid, Barr, Bowman, Hammack and Harker.
M&A Activity and News:
- .
Moving Average Table: Move from 13% to 3%. Fixed Income and International show strength.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
-
- Sellside Conferences:
- Bank of America Animal Health Conference
- Bank of America Agriculture and Materials Conference
- Cantor Private Company Software Conference
- Citigroup Medtech and Life Sciences Access Day
- DA Davidson 1st Private Company Conference
- Guggenheim Healthy Altitudes Summit
- J.P. Morgan Global Emerging Markets Conference
- Scotia Bank Howard Weil Energy Conference
- Scotiabank Global Energy Conference
- Susquehanna Tech Conference
- TD Cowen Glowing Ahead: Beauty & Wellness Summit
- Wolfe Research Real Estate Conference
- Sellside Conferences:
-
- Shareholder Meetings: ALC, CLFD, LEE, NX, TTEK
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: ALC, GFL, MIGI, PRMB, RCAT
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- ACTRIMS Forum
- Bitcoin Investor Week
- RampUp User Conference
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
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- Upgrades: MGPI RRGB STRL SPOK FCX
- Downgrades:
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