Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -0.43% at 6117.52. Wednesday higher by +0.24% at 6139.75. The overnight high was hit at 6139.75 at 6:40 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 6127.25 at 3:15 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 13 points. The current price is lower at 7:10 a.m by -0.02% at 6135 down by -1.50 points.
Executive Summary: The S&P 500 is now 25 points higher than its prior high on January 23rd. A move to 6200 would be impressive. Otherwise, there could be a retest of 6100 and then 6000. Be patient here.
Articles of Note: “Only The Supreme Court Can Stop An Unprecedented Power Grab” by Noah Feldman.
*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted sources like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.
Daily Chart: Lam Research (LRCX) is a new Type 1 Short Squeeze. It is a good-looking chart and the shorts look to be squeezed.
Key Events of Note Today:
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- There are several economic releases of note today.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: BKNG +5.47, MELI +4.71, LYV +1.70, ACCO +0.61, FIX +0.36, NEM +0.32, IRTC +0.29, AMN +0.26, FND+0.19, PODD +0.15, AKAM +0.14, BJRI+0.13, IOND +0.13, FNF +0.12, DBX +0.11, FIVN +0.09, TXRH +0.09,TVTX +0.09 of note. (>+0.09)
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: FYBR -0.30, CELH -0.22, XYZ -0.17, GH -0.15, OLED -0.10, PRTA -0.06, EVH -0.05, EXPI -0.03, RIVN -0.02, GKOS -0.02, BCC -0.01 of note.
- IPOs For The Week: BTAI, GSAT, KORU, NEXN, NIVF, RIME, SCCO,
TCBP - New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- ANEB: Form S-3.. 15,151,514 Shares of Common Stock
- Notes Priced:
- OCSL – Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation Prices Public Offering of $300,000,000 6.340%
Notes due 2030.
- OCSL – Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation Prices Public Offering of $300,000,000 6.340%
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- IPGP files for 2,150,000 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholders.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- PIPE:
- Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:
- Movers Up: CELH +27.9%, GDYN +17.9%, GRAL +13%, MELI +11.4%, BJRI +10.5%, FND +9.5%, of note.
- Movers Down: GKOS -12.9%, CARG -11.5%, GLOB -11%, TVTX -10.9%, WEAV -10.7%, ACCO -9.7%, SVV -8%, AKAM -7.7% of note.
News After The Close:
- RMAX sees U.S. and Canada combined agent count decreased 5.0% to 75,411 agents.
- Hedge Funds have begun to file 13 Fs.
- 10K or Qs Delays – none of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- VNOM announces its leadership transition plan, representing the culmination of a thorough succession planning process and ensuring a seamless leadership transition that will position the Company for continued long term outperformance.
- FANG announces that Travis Stice will step down as CEO effective as of the Company’s 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders; current President Kaes Van’t Hof will assume CEO role.
- RNG has appointed Kira Makagon, current Chief Innovation Officer and CMO, as President and Chief Operating Officer, effective today.
- ROST announces that Adam Orvos, will retire as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective September 30, 2025.
- CGNX promoted Matthew Moschner, formerly a Senior Vice President of the Company, to President and Chief Operating Officer effective immediately.
Buybacks:
- ALSN increases stock repurchase authorization by $1 bln.
- MTH renews its programmatic share repurchase of $15 million during each quarter of 2025.
- EXEL announces a newly authorized $500 million stock repurchase program.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: AZN RTX BP GSK HLT CMI TEL YUM WAB EFX PPG TPG CG RPRX MAS J PRI FBIN BBWI TIMB ACT WFRD OGS SMG FBP USLM WAFD PBI VSTS LUCK HCI PDM.
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow:
- DX increases monthly common stock dividend to $0.17/share from $0.15/share.
- OLED increases quarterly cash dividend 12.5% to $0.45/share from $0.40/share.
- TXRH increases its quarterly dividend by 11% to $0.68/sh from $0.61/share.
- ALSN increases quarterly cash dividend 8% to $0.27/share from $0.25/share.
- FIX increases quarterly dividend to $0.40/share from $0.35/share.
- MTH increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.43/share from $0.375/share.
- DHR increases quarterly cash dividend 18.5% to $0.32/share from $0.27/share.
- ESS increases quarterly dividend 4.9% to $2.57/share from $2.45/share.
- CNS increases quarterly cash dividend 5.1% to $0.62/share from $0.59/share.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:15 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +3, NASDAQ +72, Dow Jones -212 and Russell 2000 – . Europe is higher with Asia lower ex Japan. Bonds are at 4.48% from 4.521% yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $99,381 from $97,483 higher by $765 by +0.78%.
- Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Real Estate, Healthcare, Materials and Utilities of note.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Financials, Consumer Defensive, Communication Services and Industrials of note.
- One Month Winners: All except for Energy of note.
- Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
- Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Technology, Utilities and Industrials of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
- Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Materials, Financials, Healthcare and Utiltities of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Friday After the Close:
- Monday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: VIPS +0.64, TDS +0.24, BCPC +0.08, ATMU +0.05, OIS +0.03, SHO +0.02 of note.
- Flat: CWK GRAB AG of note.
- Misses: UNIT -1.01, ITCI -0.09, BRC -0.03 of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: UNIT of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support making new lows and now is off those lows.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: CELH +32%, TXNM +30.3%, GDYN +20.1%, SLRN +16.1%, FIVN +14.2%, FND +12.9%, INOD +12.3%, GRAL +12%, MELI +11.3%, EXPI +11.1%, LTRY +10.3%, VIPS +9.6%, FIX +8.9%, CDP +8.1%, EIG +5.9%, PONY +5%, MP +5%, MERC +4.9%, BJRI +4.9%, RYI +4.6%, LUCK +4.3%, GMED +4.2%, EXEL +3.8%, AZUL +3.7%, NVEE +3.3%, VSTM +3.1%, REZI +3%, BKNG +3%, VICR +3%, ALVO +2.9%, MGTX +2.6%, TEVA +2.5%, YOU +2.3%, SEI +2.3%, PAGS +2.3%, WSC +2.1%, FNF +2.1%, PHAR +2%, SPRY +2% of note.
- Gap Down: SVV -17.4%, JAKK -15.7%, WEAV -15.5%, AXTI -14%, ACCO -10.5%, AKAM -10.2%, GKOS -10.1%, DBX -9.9%, GLOB -8.8%, XYZ -8.7%, NU -8.4%, MDRX -8.1%, CARG -7%, RNG -6.7%, SEM -6.1%, IAG -6%, PRTA -5.6%, RYAN -5.5%, INDI -5.4%, DVAX -4.7%, RIVN -4.5%, TELO -3.6%, TVTX -3%, EVH -2.4%, SFM -2.4%, WKC -2% of note.
Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. AMCR RCEL sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Lead Story on Bloomberg: Wall Street Paying Attention to Trump’s Moves. (Bloomberg)
- Market Wrap: NASDAQ Futures gain. (Bloomberg)
- Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: UNH, RIVN, XYZ and CELH. (CNBC)
- 5 Things To Know Before the Market Opens. (CNBC)
- United Healthcare (UNH) being investigated over Medicare and Medicare Advantage payments from the government.
- SEC ends enforcement case against Coinbase (COIN). (CNBC)
- Bloomberg: Odd Lots- How banks became giant synthetic hedge funds. (Podcast)
Economic:
- January Existing Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 4.06 million from 4.24 million.
- February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected to remain at 67.80.
- Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
- President Trump’s Daily Schedule.
- President Trump speaks at 11:00 a.m. EDT to the Governor’s Working Session.
- President Trump and Vice President Vance lunch.
- President Trump participates in swearing in ceremony of Commerce Secretary Lutnick at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
- President Trump signs Executive Orders at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
- Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Phillip Jefferson to speak at 11:30 a.m. EDT.
M&A Activity and News:
- Celsius (CELH) to acquire Alani Nutrition for $1.8 billion including $150 million in tax assets for a net purchase price of $1.65 billion, comprising a mix of cash and stock.
Moving Average Table: Remains at 80%.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
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- Sellside Conferences:
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- Shareholder Meetings: HRZN, HZO, NVVE
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings:
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference
- NEO: The Conference for Neonatology
- SEMICON Korea
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
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- Upgrades: U TRNO FND
- Downgrades: CQP
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