CAPIS Morning Note – 2/19/25: Stocks Mixed As Tariff Talk Stalls Rally

• IPOs For The Week: BTAI, GSAT, KORU, NEXN, NIVF, RIME, SCCO,
  TCBP 
• New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
• IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note. 
• Secondaries Filed or Priced:
  • WAY announces proposed public offering of 18 mln common shares.
• Notes Priced:
• Direct Offering: None of note.
• Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
• Selling Shareholders of note:
  • PACK files for 18,716,456 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholder.
• Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • FLR files mixed shelf securities offering  
  • HTLD files $150 mln mixed shelf securities offering.
  • UPS files $10 bln mixed shelf securities offering.
• PIPE:
• Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
  •  Strategy (MSTR) announces proposed private offering of $2.0 billion of convertible senior notes

Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:

• Movers Up: ANDE +13.6%, COMP +7.8%, RBA +6.7%, LBTYA +6.7%, PEN +6.6%, CVI +5.7%, UIS +2.4% of note. 
• Movers Down:  BMBL -19.1%, CE -13.7%, FOUR -10.4%, MBC -9.8%, TX -8.6%, TRUE -8%, RNW -7.1%, FLS -6.5%, CYH -5.7%, WTTR -5.4%, CSGP -5.2%, IFF -5.1%, TOL -5%, UAN -5%, ANET -4.5%, CDNS -4.5%, CRK -3.6%, SON -3.6%, PRDO -2.8%, IOSP -2.6% of note.

News After The Close:

• Pershing Square (PSHZF) announces revised proposal to Howard Hughes Holdings; Pershing Square would acquire 10,000,000 newly issued common shares of HHH for $90/share. Bill Ackman is trying to create the next Berkshire Hathaway.
• BP mulling sale of lubricants business amid activist pressure. (Bloomberg)
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY) achieves its near-term debt repayment target of $4.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 and signed two agreements in the first quarter of 2025 to divest upstream assets to undisclosed buyers for a combined total of $1.2 billion.
• President Trump at press conference says that auto tariff rate will be “in the neighborhood” of 25%, but won’t start until April 2; also considering tariffs on pharma and chips.
•  Hedge Funds have begun to file 13 Fs.
• 10K or Qs Delays – none of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

• WOOF appoints Sabrina Simmons as CFO, effective February 17.
• CDTX  announces that Frank Karbe, MBA, has been appointed Chief Financial Officer, effective February 24, 2025.
• CSWC announces that Chief Financial Officer Michael Sarner has been appointed by the Board of Directors to succeed Bowen Diehl as President and Chief Executive Officer of Capital Southwest.
• STZ announced that Chief Growth & Strategy Officer E. Yuri Hermida will depart effective February 28, 2025 to pursue career interests outside the organization.
• HON appointed Mike Stepniak as CFO, effective yesterday, February 17.
• FND confirms start date of March 10, 2025 for Bradley S. Paulsen as the President of the Company. 

Buybacks:

• Stocks Ex Div Today: AFL ITUB MPC OWL ED WHGLY MKTX POWL BTU
• Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: 
• FDUS declares a base dividend of $0.43/share and a supplemental dividend of $0.11/share for the first quarter of 2025.  

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:15 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 -1.75, NASDAQ +17.75, Dow Jones -56 and Russell 2000 +2.72. Europe is lower with Asia lower as well. Bonds are at 4.57% from 4.513% yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $96,216 from $95,907 higher by $2179 by +2.32%.

• Daily Positive Sectors: All were higher led by Energy, Materrials, Utilities, Financials and Industrials.
• Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services and Consumer Cyclical of note.
• One Month Winners: All except for Energy of note.
• Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
• Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Technology, Utilities and Industrials of note.
• Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
• Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Materials, Financials, Healthcare and Utiltities of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Wednesday After the Close: None of note.

• Thursday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Gap Up: MFH +13.7%, ADEA +12.9%, ANDE +12.8%, FFIE +10.1%, COMP +9%, PEN +8.4%, RBA +8.1%, WIX +7.1%, ENLT +5.5%, LPX +5.4%, FVRR +5%, NEOG +4.8%, UNM +4%, CAN +3.4%, LBTYA +3.2%, CMCO +3%, CVI +3%, LGO +2.9%, VIST +2.7%, ANGI +2.6%, UIS +2.5%, RDW +2.4%, JHX +2.4%, VTMX +2.1%of note.
• Gap Down: SUPN -21.9%, THRM -17.5%, BMBL -16.9%, CE -13%, SPNT -12.6%, PHG -11.2%, FOUR -10.9%, TRUE -10.7%, MBC -8.2%, CLVT -7.9%, TOL -5.7%, ANET -5.7%, WAY -5.1%, SKE -4.8%, HHH -4.5%, CSGP -4%, PACK -3.9%, FLS -3.9%, CDNS -3.9%, SBLK -3.6%, CAAP -3.4%, AU -3.2%, TX -3.1%, SLDB -3%, CYH -3%, ESI -2.8%, MTDR -2.4%, WTTR -2.3%,of note.

Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Lead Story on Bloomberg: Trump Floats 25% Tariffs. (Bloomberg)
• Market Wrap: US Stock Futures stalls on Trump 25% tariff threats. (Bloomberg)
• Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: ETSY TOL . (CNBC)
• 5 Things To Know Before the Market Opens. (CNBC)
• Homebuilders raise alarms over tariffs. (CNBC)

M&A Activity and News:

• Shift4 Payments (FOUR) to acquire Global Blue (GB) for $7.50 per common share in cash, representing an 15% premium to Global Blue’s closing share price as of February 14, and a ~$2.5 billion enterprise value

Moving Average Table:  Rises to 90% from77%.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

• • • Upgrades: ABNB STM COF 
    • Downgrades: