Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
- The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 0.30% at 6849.72 from Tuesday higher by 0.25% at 6829.37.
- S&P 500 hit its 34th All-Time Closing High of 2025 on 10/29.
- Futures are higher this morning by +1.25 (+0.02%) at 6863.25 on the S&P 500 around 7:00 a.m. EST.
- Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 16.68% from 16.38% on Friday’s close.
Executive Summary:
- Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield lower at 4.081% from 4.075%.
- The S&P 500 sees support now at 6800 from 6700. 6900 by the close of the week? Theme for the week.
- Can Bitcoin find a bottom this week or does it have to wait until the FOMC is out next week? So far up 2.31% for the week after a heinous Monday, -5.92%.
- Why are retailers killing earnings estimates? No impact by Tariffs on earnings.
Key Events of Note Today:
- Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
- Monthly – October Trade Balance and September Factory Orders are due out.
- Weekly – Jobless Claims and Natural Gas Inventories due out.
- President Trump schedule:
- President Trump meets with the heads of Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
- President Trump lights the National Christmas Tree.
- Federal Reserve Speakers – In Blackout Period until December 10th.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: FIVE +0.43, CRM +0.39, PVH +0.29, HQY +0.10, NCNO +0.10, AI +0.08, GWRE +0.05, DSGX +0.04, SNOW +0.04, PATH +0.01 of note.
- Misses: None of note.
- Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
- IPOs For The Week: None of note.
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- BKV – Closing of Public Offering of Common Stock.
- MDU – Public Offering of $200 Million of Shares of Common Stock with a Forward Component.
- NCRA: Form S-3.. 300,000,000 Shares of Common Stock.
- SOC: FORM S-3 – 45,454,546 Shares of Common Stock.
- SYM – Primary and Secondary Offering of Class A Common Stock.
- ULS – Pricing of Secondary Public Offering of Class A Common Stock.
- Notes Filed Or Priced:
- BRSL – Successful Pricing of $750,000,000 of Senior Secured Notes Due 2033 and Notice of Redemption of All of Its 6.25% Senior Secured Notes Due 2027.
- ESS – Prices $350 Million of Senior Notes.
- FOUR – Pricing of €435 million Tack-On Offering of Senior Notes due 2033.
- Convertibles Filed or Priced:
- CHKP – Pricing of Upsized Private Offering of $1.75 Billion of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030.
- FSLY – Proposed Convertible Senior Notes Offering.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Private Placements: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders:
- SYM: FORM S-3ASR – Up to 48,915,312 Shares of Class A Common Stock Offered by the Selling Securityholders.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- AIFF: Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- ATON: Form F-3.. US$420,690,000 Mixed Shelf.
- VMAR: Form F-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
News After The Close:
- Salesforce (CRM) met estimates and is higher.
- Costco (COST) put up strong November Sales +6.4%.
- Five Below (FIVE) also knocked it out of the park.
- Blue Owl (OWL) saw several insider purchases.
- 10-Q Delays: None of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News: None of note.
Buybacks: None of note.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today of note: CI LB HD NE AGI FNV HRB MOS WDC LBRT NVDA QCOM of note.
- Stocks Ex Div tomorrow of note: None of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)
- Futures S&P 500 +6 NASDAQ 100 +7 Dow Jones +53 Russell 2000 -1 Europe is higher and Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.081% from 4.063% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $92,991 from $92,892 on Wednesday lower by -0.12% which is at $-115.
Sector Action:
- Daily Positive Sectors: All ex Utilities were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities were lower.
- One Month Winners: Healthcare Services, Utilities, Technology, Industrials, Materials and Consumer Defensive of note.
- Three-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Materials, Utilities and Healthcare of note.
- Six-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials and Consumer Cyclicals of note.
- Twelve-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Financials, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Materials, Technology, Financials, Utilities and Industrials of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Today After the Close:
- Friday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: SAIC +0.50, DODO +0.34, DG +0.33, BMO + 0.24, TD +0.17, CM +0.13, DCI +0.02, HRL +0.02 of note.
- Misses: BETA -9.41 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Still to Report: BFB HOV KR WLY of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: This Morning – DOOO DG of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: This Morning – SAIC of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- GapUp: TIGR +8.4%, AXGN +8.1%, PATH +8%, DOV +4.6%, GWRE +4.2%, FIVE +3.9%, DSGX +3.8%, DOOO +3.4%, APLS +3.3%, NCNO +3.3%, OWL +3.1%, DCI +2.7%, BETA +2.4%, NBP +2.1%, TIPT +2% of note.
- GapDown: CURV -13.7%, SYM -12%, SNOW -8.7%, MEI -4.3%, FSLY -3.7%, MDU -2.9%, PVH -1.8% of note.
Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list. No new outliers of note.
Insider Action: OWL ENR see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Bloomberg Lead Story: Alphabet (GOOGL) AI Chips Are A Potential $900 Billion “Secret Sauce”. (Bloomberg)
- Market Wrap: Stocks rise as traders gear up for year-end rally. (Bloomberg)
- China is issuing general licenses for rare earth exports to ease tensions with U.S. (FT)
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is being considered for a second job as head of the National Economic Council. (Bloomberg)
- Amazon (AMZN) considering ending relationship with USPS and building its own delivery network (FDX, UPS). (The Washington Post)
- Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang is not sure China would accept H200 artificial intelligence chips. (Bloomberg)
Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.
Economic & Geopolitical:
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
- In Blackout Period until December 10th.
- President Trump’s schedule for today:
-
- President Trump meets with the presidents of Rwanda and Congo at 11:00 p.m. EST. and then holds a meeting and signing ceremony.
- President Trump lights the National Christmas Tree at 6:00 p.m. EST.
-
- Economic Data Out
- October Trade Balance is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST. There was no September data.
- September Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST. There has been no data.
- Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST.
- Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are out at 10:30 a.m. EST
M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.
Moving Average Table: Commodities are struggling ex Gold and Silver.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- B. Riley Convergence Conference
- Citi Healthcare Conference
- Evercore Empowering Innovation: Software
- Evercore Healthcare Conference
- Evercore Software Summit
- GS Industrials & Materials Conf
- Jefferies Renewables & Clean Energy
- MJBiz Conference
- MS Business Services Leisure and Transport Conf
- Piper Healthcare Conference
- Stifel Deep Tech Forum
- UBS Technology and AI Conference
- UBS Industrials & Transportation Conf
- Top Analyst, Investor: CWK DNLI EW IMAX
- Shareholder Meetings: ELAB LRN PCTY VEEE
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Meetings:
- AWS re:Invent
- NYSE Financials Conference
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
- Upgrades: META of note.
- Downgrades: BFH CCS LEN of note.