CAPIS Morning Note – 12/31/25: Bad Santa Delivers Coal To Wall Street

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Tuesday lower by -0.14% at 6896.24 from Monday lower by -0.35% at 6905.74 and Friday lower by -0.03% at 6929.94. S&P 500 hit its 37th All-Time Closing High of 2025 on 12/24. Futures are lower this morning by -15 (-0.22%) at 6929 on the SP […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Tuesday lower by -0.14% at 6896.24 from Monday lower by -0.35% at 6905.74 and Friday lower by -0.03% at 6929.94.
  • S&P 500 hit its 37th All-Time Closing High of 2025 on 12/24.
  • Futures are lower this morning by -15 (-0.22%) at 6929 on the SP 500 around 6:30 a.m. EST.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 17.27% from 17.41% on Friday’s close.

Executive Summary:

  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield unchanged at 4.112%.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6800 as it moved back below 6900 with yesterday’s action.
  • Markets will have a shortened trading week. Bias is upward as the Santa Claus Rally kicked in last Wednesday through Monday, January 5th, lower by -0.20% so far.
  • FOMC Minutes were out at 2:00 p.m. EST yesterday and showed that Fed members could have stayed unchanged as inflation paranoia remains.

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly –  MBA Mortgage Applications, Jobless Claims, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Inventories are due out.
    • Monthly – None of note.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: None of note.
  • President Trump schedule:
    • Attends a New Year’s Eve Party at 7:30 p.m. EST.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • FCEL files for $200 million common stock offering.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertibles Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Private Placements:
    • ARBE completes a $15.7 million private placement follow-on offering of its Series A convertible bonds.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • MESO files for 500,000 ADS offering by selling shareholders.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ARCT files for $500 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • CMPX files for $400 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • SBCF files mixed securities shelf offering.

News After The Close:

  • PG&E (PCG) to lower electric prices on Jan 1, fourth decrease in two years. 
  • Nike (NKE) CEO bought 16388 shares at $61.10 worth ~$1 million.
  • Hyatt (H) disclosed full year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA outlook for Playa is decreased by $10 million. Excluding Playa, full year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA for Hyatt Hotels Corporation is expected to be at the low end of the $1,090-1,110 million outlook range due primarily to weaker distribution segment performance from cancellations in Jamaica.
  • LMT awarded a $297 million modification to Navy contract and awarded a $142 million modification to Missile Defense Agency contract.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • VWAV discloses resignation of CEO Noam Kenig; appoints Douglas Davis as interim CEO. 

Buybacks: None of note.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today of note:

  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow day of note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)

  • Futures S&P 500 -10, NASDAQ 100 -50, Dow Jones -43, Russell 2000 -4  Europe is lower ex Germany while Asia is lower ex China. Bond yield is at 4.112% on the 10-Year for a third day. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $88,879 from $87,811 higher by 1.04% which is at $+925.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Communication Services, Materials and Real Estate were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclicals, Industrials and Technology were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Healthcare Services, Utilities, Technology, Industrials, Materials and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Materials, Utilities and Healthcare of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials and Consumer Cyclicals of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Financials, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Materials, Technology, Financials, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: None of note
  • Tomorrow Before The Open: None of note

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: This Morning – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: This Morning – None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp: None of note.
  • GapDown: None of note.

Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list. No new outliers of note.

Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling.  None sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Xi Declares China Hit 5% Growth in 2025. (Bloomberg)
  • WSJ Lead Story: Bankers are gearing up for another strong M&A year in 2026. (WSJ)
  • NY Times Business Section Lead Story:  As Youth Sports Professionalize, Kids Are Burning Out Fast. (NYT)
  • Markets Wrap: Stocks slip as Bull Run’s third year nears close. (Bloomberg)

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: None
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Attends a New Year’s Eve Party at 7:30 p.m. EST.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • MBA Mortgage Applications due out at 7:00 a.m. EST.
      • Weekly Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 a.m. EST.
      • Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.
      • Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 12:00 p.m. EST.
    •  Monthly
      • None of note.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table:  70% from 74% of Equities Positive and 76% of Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
  • Top Analyst, Investor: None of note. 
  • Shareholder Meetings: ARTL NCL RNG 
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation:
    • NRXP: Dta Update for HTX100
    • OTLK: PDUFA Decision for ONS-5010 / LYTENAVA
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: None of note.
  • Downgrades: None of note.