CAPIS Morning Note – 12/31/24: Futures Higher After Two Days Of Selling. Santa Claus Rally Back On Track?

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 closed Monday lower by -1.07% to 5906.94 from Friday lower by -1.11% at 5970.84. The overnight high was hit at 5983.25 at 7:15 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5944 at 6:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 39 points. The current price is […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 closed Monday lower by -1.07% to 5906.94 from Friday lower by -1.11% at 5970.84. The overnight high was hit at 5983.25 at 7:15 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5944 at 6:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 39 points. The current price is lower at 7:15 a.m higher by +0.38% up by +20 at 5981.50.

Executive Summary: Last Tuesday started the Santa Claus Rally that lasts from the Tuesday before Christmas through the first two trading days of January. So far we are down -1.12% with three trading days left.

Article of Note: “Stocks are Skipping The Santa Claus Rally This Year. Why It’s Not A Good Sign.” by Joesph Adinolfi (MarketWatch)

Key Events of Note Today:

- S&P Case Shiller will be released this morning at 9:00 a.m. EDT and 10:00 a.m. EDT.

Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart in The Morning Note? Simply send an email to us at [email protected] and we will more than likely show it.

Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) is a now a Long Squeeze. The Tech Rank has fallen to 30%. Short Intensity is 10% with the Erlanger Short Ratio at 1.49. Be careful if you are in this name.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close

Beats: None of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

IPOs For The Week:
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note. Secondaries Filed or Priced:
Notes Priced:
Direct Offering: None of note.
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
PIPE:
Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:

Movers Up: VSTM +18.8%, ACAD +9.5%, CMPO +8.6%, SGML +7.7%, AIV +6.1%, FTAI +3.6% of note.
Movers Down: SGMO -56.8%, DAVE -6.8%, RR -5.5% of note.

News After The Close:

FTC refers case against DAVE to DOJ, which filed an amended complaint seeking civil penalties for deceiving consumers, charging undisclosed fees.
Parsons (PSN) selected by the Austin Transit Partnership as Delivery Partner for the $7 billion Austin Light Rail project.
SPNT to repurchase all common shares and warrants held by CM Bermuda Limited for an aggregate purchase price of $733 million.
North Dakota Public Service Commission approves $13.1 mln increase to electric service rates which OTTR will pass on to customers.
AIV to sell properties in Miami, FL for a gross price of $520 mln.
Index Changes:
- Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) will replace Independent Bank Group (IBTX) in the SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Friday, January 3, 2025. IBTX is being purchased by SouthState (SSB).
10-K Delays: RR.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

SHYF appoints Scott Ocholik as interim CFO, effective January 1.
ATEX names Tom Kuhn as Chairman of the Board, effective January 1; succeeds Morgan O’Brien, who is retiring.

Dividends Announcements or News:

Stocks Ex Div Today: MU ZBH MKC BEN CIB TIMB CIG NOG HASI INDB IVT CSR NHC JBGS SAFE SCS GSBC.
Stocks Ex Div Wednesday: None as markets closed

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:15 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +16, NASDAQ +56, Dow Jones +125 and Russell 2000 +12. Europe is higher ex Germany with Asia lower across the board. Bonds are at 4.52% from 4.585% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas lower. Natural Gas is up 16.17% today!! Gold is higher with Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $94,571 from $93,701 higher by $182 up +0.17%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):

Daily Positive Sectors: Energy was higher yesterday.
Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Materials, Healthcare and Technology were lower.
One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Financials, Industrials, Energy and Utilities of note.
Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Financials, Communication Services, Industrials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Technology of note.
Six Month Winners: Financials, Real Estate, Utilities, Consumer Cyclical and Technology of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Financials, Technology, Industrials, Utilities and Communication Services note.
Year to Date Winners: Technology, Financials, Utilities, Communication Services and Industrials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Tuesday After the Close: None of note.

Thursday Before The Open: None of note.

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

Beats: None of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: None of note.
Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

Positive Guidance: None of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support, bounced and is now falling again.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

Gap Up: VSTM +32.4%, ADCT +8.9%, ACAD +8.3%, EH +7%, FTAI +5.1%, HMST +4.1%, VRSN +2.9%, AIV +2%, BWLP +2% of note.
Gap Down: SGMO -50%, RR -14%, DAVE -6.1% of note.

Insider Action: NKE sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. None of note see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

Lead Story on Bloomberg: US Treasury Says It Was Hacked By Chinese Backed Hacker. Came out with an hour left in the day bu story continues to build. (Bloomberg)
Market Wrap: US Futures set to snap run of losses as the year ends. (Bloomberg)
5 Things To Know Before Market Opens. (CNBC)
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves MSTR VRSN SGMO. (CNBC)
NYSE to close next Thursday, January 9th. (CNBC)

Economic:

October S&P Case Shiller is due out at 9:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise by 4.2% from 4.6% in September.

Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)

President Biden and The First Lady return from St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands to Wilmington, Delaware to see in the new year.
No Fed Speakers today.

M&A Activity and News: None of note.

Moving Averages On Major Equity Indexes: Moves on Equities from 30% to 27%.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

- Sellside Conferences:
- Fireside Chat: None of note.

- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: None of note.
- Shareholder Meetings: ATCH, BNR, BSGM, GNLN, NXDT, RNG
- Update: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- Company Event: None of note.
- Industry Meetings or Events:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

- - Upgrades: YUM RL
  - Downgrades: