CAPIS Morning Note – 12/20/24: Triple Witching Is Here!!

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.09% at 5867.08. Wednesday lower by -2.95% at 5872.16. The overnight high was hit at 5944.50 at 6:00 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5878.75 at 5;20 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 66 points for a second day in […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.09% at 5867.08. Wednesday lower by -2.95% at 5872.16. The overnight high was hit at 5944.50 at 6:00 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5878.75 at 5;20 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 66 points for a second day in a row The current price is lower at 6:55 a.m by -0.83% down -49.25.

Articles That Matter: “How To Avoid The Coming Federal Debt Avalanche” by Tom Cole. (WSJ Opinion)

Executive Summary: Yesterday was not a great day as a follow-on to the ugly action on Wednesday. The fact that the rebound faded and the various indexes finished in the red does not portend a great end to the week. Futures reflect that this morning. Today is the largest options expiration we have ever seen, EVER.

$6.6 trillion is set to expire today with notional value of $7.7 trillion. The biggest volatility will be on the open which is lovely,not. With futures off significantly, the open could be brutal. Today is also a triple witch expiration combined with a FOMC meeting just completed and a potential government shutdown heading into the weekend unless a Hail Mary Pass can be completed. Good luck today to everyone!!

Key Events of Note Today:

- There are 4 economic releases out from 8:30 a.m. through 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart in The Morning Note? Simply send an email to us at [email protected] and we will more than likely show it. There is no chart today due to extra coverage of the market volatility.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close

Beats: AVO +0.20, NKE +0.15, FDX +0.04, BB +0.03 of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: SCHL -0.48 of note.

Capital Raises:

IPOs For The Week: ALEH, FTRK, HIT, MIMI, MTRS, NTCL, PHH, YSXT
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- ACRS files for 35,555,555 shares of common stock offering.
Notes Priced:
Direct Offering: None of note.
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:
- HFFG files for 5,200,000 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholders.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- TRMD files mixed shelf securities offering.
- APTV mixed shelf securities offering.
PIPE:.
Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
- ORGO files for 130,000 shares of Series A Convertible Preferred stock offering by selling shareholders; also files for 34,285,653 Shares of Class A Common Stock Issuable Upon Conversion of Series A Convertible Preferred.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down Yesterday:

Movers Up: AVO +8.8%, FDX +8%, ITRI +5.6%, CCI +5%, ACRS +4.6% of note.
Movers Down: SCHL -11.4%, X -3.8%, OSUR -3.4% of note.

News After The Close:

- 10-K Delays – PPIH of note.
- FDX to pursue a full separation of FedEx Freight unit creating a new publicly traded company.
- U.S. Steel (X) lowers FY25 guidance.
- House GOP agreed to a deal, then it fell apart on the vote last night with 38 Republicans voting against the bill. Left with a potential government shutdown.
- Nike (NKE) continues to struggle with weak guidance. (CNBC)
- AIR reaches resolutions with DOJ and SEC regarding previously disclosed potential violations of the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.]
- TXT awarded $557 mln U.S. Navy contract.
- RTX awarded $401 mln U.S. Navy contract

Buybacks

SBCF may repurchase up to $100 million of its shares of common stock, representing approximately 4% of the Company’s outstanding common stock
VCTR new $200 million share repurchase program.
KR agreements for $5.0b accelerated share repurchase program

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

EXPE appoints Scott Schenkel as CFO, effective on or about February 7, 2025.
LNTH CMO Jeff Humphrey, MD, departing, effective January 3.
IVR appoints Mark Gregson as CFO, effective immediately; he had been serving as interim CFO since Oct 7.

Dividends Announcements or News:

Stocks Ex Div Today: GEV BTI CARR PCAR VST FERG HPE IFF PKG OMC MAIN KFY PLTK ROIC CNMB ALEX TPB GDEN HCKT GSM GOOD GLAD GMRE.
Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: AVGO JCI ABEV TTC WU SGHC LTC WKC ARCO IDT BFC RWT.
CURB declares $0.25 per share cash special dividend payable on January 16, 2025 to stockholders of record at the close of business on December 31.
VLTO increases quarterly cash dividend 22% to $0.11/share from $0.09/share.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 – , NASDAQ – , Dow Jones – and Russell 2000 – . Europe is lower with Asia lower as well. Bonds are at 4.53% from 4.41% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $102,299 from $104,966 higher by $1135 +1.10%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):

Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities, Financials and Technology were higher yesterday.
Daily Negative Sectors: All other sectors were lower led by Real Estate, Materials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive.
One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Financials, Industrials, Energy and Utilities of note.
Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Financials, Communication Services, Industrials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Technology of note.
Six Month Winners: Financials, Real Estate, Utilities, Consumer Cyclical and Technology of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Financials, Technology, Industrials, Utilities and Communication Services note.
Year to Date Winners: Technology, Financials, Utilities, Communication Services and Industrials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Friday After the Close: None of note.

Monday Before The Open: None of note.

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

Beats: of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: WGO -0.22 of note.
Still to Report: CTAS PAYX of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

Positive Guidance: None of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: NKE of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: SPX A/D is has fallen to major support. A bounce or a puke ahead?

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

Gap Up:
Gap Down:

Insider Action: CNC BH see Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stocks see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

Lead Story on Bloomberg: Trump Backed US Financing Plan’s Failures Showcase GOP Fissures. (Bloomberg)
Market Wrap: US Stocks to extend losses as Volatility spikes. (Bloomberg)
5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves Pre-Market: NVO SBUX FDX NKE MSTR. (CNBC)
Russian Central Bank holds rates at 21%. (CNBC)
House Speaker Johnson says there will be another vote this morning. Good luck on that Mr. Speaker!!
Novo Nordisk (NVO) falls 22% on new weight loss drug disappointments. (Bloomberg)

Economic:

November Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to come in at 0.4% from 0.6%.
November PCE Core is due out at the same time and is expected to drop to 0.2% from 0.3%.
The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 74.20 from 74.
Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)

President Biden will receive the Daily Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
There will be a Press Briefing at 12:15 p.m. EDT.
President Biden and the First Lady visit the Children’s National Hospital at 2:15 p.m. EDT.
Vice President Harris was half way to the airport for a trip to California and then turned around and headed back to The White House last night.
Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly is out talking markets and the economy this morning see Rags & Mags.

M&A Activity and News: None of note.

Moving Averages On Major Equity Indexes: Moves to 27% from 33%. No longer Sunday, Bloody Sunday now Friday, Bloody Friday that could look even worse by Sunday.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

- Sellside Conferences:
  - Goldman Sachs Energy Clean Tech & Utilities Conference
  - Needham Growth Conference

- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: LXRX
- Shareholder Meetings: ACHR, BIAF, FMST, MGOL, PRSO, SLRX, THO, UAVS, WAFU, WISA
- Update: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- Company Event: None of note.
- Industry Meetings or Events:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

- - Upgrades: WTW JCI INVZ FREY FDX DASH BRKL BB ATO
- Downgrades: ORCL PBF