CAPIS Morning Note – 12/2/24: Stocks Mixed To Start December, President Biden Pardons His Son. Busy Week Of Economic Data.

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday lower by -0.38% from Tuesday higher by 0.57% at 6021.63. Friday saw the S&P 500 higher by 0.56%. The overnight high was hit at 6054.50 at 6:00 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 6036 at 1:35 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday lower by -0.38% from Tuesday higher by 0.57% at 6021.63. Friday saw the S&P 500 higher by 0.56%. The overnight high was hit at 6054.50 at 6:00 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 6036 at 1:35 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 19 points. The current price is 6040.25 at 5:55 a.m. The S&P 500 is lower by -11.25 at -0.19% this morning.

Executive Summary: November was a strong month for stocks as the S&P 500 rose 5.73% and the Russell 2000 rose 10.84%. More ahead for December.

Article of Note: “November Was A Month To Remember For Stocks”. (CNBC)

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic releases of note are ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending are out this morning.
  • 3 & 6 Month Auction at 11:30 a.m. EDT.

Daily Chart Request:  Want to see an Erlanger Chart? Simply email us at [email protected]

Next up is Stellantis (STLA). The stock is weak technically with a rank of 10%. Short Intensity is low at 15% with the Short Ratio at 2.89.  This morning the stock is at $12.26 and is lower on its CEO resigning over the weekend. The work nailed it. What to Do: We would sell as a Long Squeeze. To Short or Not To Short: We are not okay with being short or shorting this name that has worked as a short dropping from $29.24 making it a nice gainer on the short side.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
Capital Raises:
  • IPOs For The Week: 
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • LYEL: Form S-3.. 37,499,981 Shares of Common Stock.
    • AIOT: Form S-1.. 24,285,714 Shares of Common Stock
  • Notes Priced:
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
    • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • MNPR shares offered by selling shareholder.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • MCB filed a mixed shelf offering.
  • PIPE: 
    • FLNT filed a direct and concurrent private offering.
    • MARA filed a private offering of zero-coupon convertible bonds similar to what Microstrategy (MSTR) did last week. Both are Bit Coin Miners.
  • Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
    • CORZ filed a convertible offering.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down Last Week:

  • Movers Up: ARWR (26.03 +40.4%),  IRTC (86.99 +17.57%), URBN (48.7 +24.92%), SNBR (14.98 +19.9%), DAN (10.05 +17.62%), SEDG (15.76 +32.62%), SMTC (64.03 +25.81%), LX (5.06 +49.26%) of note. 
  • Movers Down: GRFS (6.98 -19.77%), SSL (5.01 -9.08%), MLI (80.88 -7.99%), KSS (14.99 -11.98%),  HTHT (32.21 -10.04%), TEN (18.19 -9.3%), DELL (127.22 -11.78%), NTNX (65.31 -10.75%), ADSK (291.87 -9.15%), FRO (16.18 -17.26%), BTU (23.79 -13.21%) and  SBS (15.26 -9.73%) of note.

News After The Close:

  • Commerce Department announces tariffs on select solar cells from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. (Press Release)
  • President Biden pardoned his son over the weekend.
  • Barron’s + on XOM CVX FANG EOG OXY DIS.
  • 10-K “Delays – None of note.

Buybacks or Repurchases

  • HAFN authorizes the management to initiate a share buyback program of up to $100 million, from December 2, 2024, to January 27, 2025, subject to market conditions.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • FATE CEO Scott Wolchko to retire; names Bob Valamehr, Ph.D. MBA as new CEO, effective Jan 1.
  • CRVL Chairman of the Board V. Gordon Clemons retires, effective Nov 26; CEO Michael Combs also becomes new Chairman. 

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: MCD GS LMT NKE MCK NOC ITUB O CTVA YUM TPL MTB MLM HIG TW K LYB RF PFG SSNC BALL EXPD AGR HLI JKHY JNPR
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: LIN VRT KEY BSY SWKS UHS CBSH ALV DLB EBC TFSL JWN VSH CABO EPC

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 -1.75, NASDAQ +17.50, Dow Jones -37 and Russell 2000 +9.77. Europe is higher. Asia is higher. Bonds are at 4.205% from 4.262% for the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the YenBitcoin is at $95,669 from $93,558 Wednesday morning lower by -$1,449 with futures -1.49% this morning.

 

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release)
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Materials and Energy of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate of note.
  • One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Financials, Industrials, Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Financials, Communication Services, Industrials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Technology of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Financials, Real Estate, Utilities, Consumer Cyclical and Technology of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Financials, Technology, Industrials, Utilities and Communication Services note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Financials, Utilities, Communication Services and Industrials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close:

  • Tuesday Before The Open: None of note

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report:

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance:  of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line has been improving for the last two weeks.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: MRUS +7.2%, API +5.4%, XPEV +4.3%, AITR +3.2%, ZK +3%. 
  • Gap Down: MLCO -9.3%, STLA -8.6%, CORZ -5.5%, LI -3.7%, HAFN -3%, BWLP -3%, IREN -2%.

Insider Action: BH sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. FGF sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Lead Story on Bloomberg: Biden Pardons Son Hunter in Reversal With Weeks Left In Term. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: GPS STLA TSLA. (CNBC)
  • Market Wrap: Dollar gains on Franc drop due to budget woes. (Bloomberg)
  • President-Elect Trump threatened 100% tariffs on exports from BRICS countries if they move away from US dollar as world reserve currency. (Truth Social)
  • President-Elect Trump will appoint Kashyap Patel to serve as the next Director of the FBI and Chad Chronister for Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Agency.
  • U.S. tightens curbs on China’s access to AI Memory and Chips tools. (Bloomberg)
  • NIO reports November deliveries increased 28.9% yr/yr.
  • XPEV reports November deliveries increased 54% yr/yr.
  • LI reports November deliveries increased 18.8% yr/yr. 
  • Macau Gaming Authority reported November gross revs +14.9 yr/yr to HKD 18.44 bln versus +435% in November of 2023.
  • Stellantis (STLA) CEO resigns; reaffirms guidance.
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take – A Roadmap Through The Drama and Realities of Trump’s Trade War. (Podcast)

Economic:

  • November ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 47.60% from 46.50%.
  • At the same time, October Construction Spending is expected to remain at 0.10%.

Geopolitical: 

  • Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks at 3:15 p.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams speaks at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
  • President Biden arrived in Cape Verde at 4:30 a.m. EDT and will then arrives in Angola at 12:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for an impromptu appearances.

M&A Activity and News:

  • None of note.

Moving Averages On Major Equity Indexes: Remains 100%. Bonds have improved this past week.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

    • Sellside Conferences:
      • BTIG Ophthalmology Day
      • Craig-Hallum’s Online Gaming Conference
      • Goldman Sachs Energy Clean Tech & Utilities Conference
      • Jefferies Renewables & Clean Technology Conference
      • JMP Securities Hematology and Oncology Summit
      • Needham Growth Conference
      • UBS Global Technology & AI Conference
    • Fireside Chat: None of note.
    • Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: APGE, JANX, RLYB
    • Shareholder Meetings: FLYX, INBP, PIRS, UMAC 
    • Update: None of note.
    • R&D Day: None of note.
    • FDA Presentation: 
      • JANX: Data Presentation for JANX007
      • RLYB: Data Presentation for RLYB116
    • Company Event: None of note.
    • Industry Meetings or Events:
      • LA Auto Show

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades:  LVMUY PYCR 

Downgrades:  NU PPRUY NVRO GKOS