CAPIS Morning Note – 12/19/25: Stocks Higher as We Get More Economic Data

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday higher by 0.79% at 6774.76 from Wednesday lower by -1.16% at 6721.43. S&P 500 hit its 35th All-Time Closing High of 2025 on 12/11. Futures are higher this morning by +15 (+0.22%) at 6845.50 on the SP 500 around 6:20 a.m. EST. Year to […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Thursday higher by 0.79% at 6774.76 from Wednesday lower by -1.16% at 6721.43.
  • S&P 500 hit its 35th All-Time Closing High of 2025 on 12/11.
  • Futures are higher this morning by +15 (+0.22%) at 6845.50 on the SP 500 around 6:20 a.m. EST.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 15.07% from 14.28% on Wednesday’s close.

Executive Summary:

  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield lower at 4.151% from 4.131%.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6700 as it failed at 6800 two days ago.
  • Nike (NKE) beat on earnings and revenues but struggled in China and is down -10% this morning.
  • Federal Reserve NY President John Williams to be interviewed on CNBC at 8:30 a.m. EST.
  • Today is quadruple witching, prepare for the unexpected.

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly – Baker Hughes Rig Count
    • Monthly – PCE Core, Personal Income, Existing Home Sales and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment are due out this morning.
  • 5-Year TIPS Auction at 1:00 p.m. EST.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Williams interview (see above)
  • President Trump schedule:
    • President Trump has a busy day with announcement, Christmas Reception and a speech from North Carolina.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: FDX +0.72, NKE +0.16, KBH +0.13, HEI +0.11, AVO +0.08 and BB +0.04 of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: AIGO ALEH ANDG DTDT HWEP MDLN RIKU UTX of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • COCH: Form S-1.. Common Stock Offering.
    • CUE – Proposed Public Offering.
    • ETHZ: Form S-3.. 2,726,983 Shares of Common Stock.
    • SBEV: Form S-1.. 10,000,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • VRAX: Form F-3.. Up to 25,875,000 Ordinary Shares.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertibles Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CGTX: Form S-3.. $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • LINE files mixed securities shelf offering.

News After The Close:

  • Nike (NKE) blew out numbers but saw weak sales in China and guidance impacted by tariffs see margins fall.
  • FedEx (FDX) beat on earnings and revenues as well but moved higher.
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT) to take $480 million pension settlement charge in Q4 after transferring approximately $900 million of pension obligations to insurers.
  • RTX awarded a $168 million modification to Army contract.
  • LMT awarded a $373 million modification to Navy contract.
  • NOC awarded a $120 million Navy contract and a $142 million Air Force contract.
  • No delays 10-Q.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • AVO Founder & CEO Steve Barnard to transition to Executive Chairman; COO John Pawlowski to become CEO.
  • Owens & Minor (OMI) to change its name and ticker to Accendra Health (ACH).
  • CARS names Tobias Hartmann as new CEO, effective January 15.

Buybacks: None of note.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today of note: HPE OMC IFF DOC HLNE TPB of note.
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow day of note:  JCI VST CINF ESLT LAMR SUZ TTC MAIN POR WU CURB CSGS ARCO of note.
  • IVR increases quarterly dividend to $0.36 per share from $0.34 per share; will transition to monthly dividends beginning in January 2026.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:45 a.m. EST)

  • Futures S&P 500 +6, NASDAQ 100 +48, Dow Jones -13, Russell 2000 +2  Europe is mixed and Asia is higher. Bond yield is at 4.151% from 4.131% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold lower with Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $87,895 from $87,239 yesterday morning higher by +3.59% which is at $+3047.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services and Industrials were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Healthcare Services, Utilities, Technology, Industrials, Materials and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Materials, Utilities and Healthcare of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials and Consumer Cyclicals of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Financials, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Materials, Technology, Financials, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: None of note
  • Monday Before The Open: None of note

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: WGO +0.25, CAG+0.01 of note.
  • Misses: DRI-0.02 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: CCL LW PAYX of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: This Morning – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: This Morning – BIRK DRI of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp:  WYFI +22.4%, ALT +12.5%, LNKB +5.6%, CORZ +3.3%, NNE +3.2%, WULF +3.2%, AVO +2.1%of note.
  • GapDown: NKE -9.9%, BB -3.0%, KBH -2.8%, FDX -2.7%, CGTX -2.7% of note.

Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list. No new outliers of note.

Insider Action: CRM sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. S sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Trump Suspends Green Card Lottery After Brown and MIT Shooting. (Bloomberg)
  • WSJ Lead Story: BOJ Raised Rates. (WSJ)
  • NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Trump tries to stop immigrants from driving trucks. (NYT)
  • Markets Wrap: Stocks move higher as yields rise after BOJ Hike. (Bloomberg)

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: None
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • President Trump makes announcement at 1:00 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Christmas Reception at 5:45 p.m. EST.
    • Speaks from North Carolina at 9:00 p.m. EST.
  • Economic Data Out – 
    • Weekly
      • Baker Hughes Rig Count is out at 1:00 p.m. EST
    •  Monthly
      • November Personal Income are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and have been delayed..
      • November PCE Core is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and have been delayed.
      • November Existing Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and last month came in at 4.10 with no change expected.
      • December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to remain at 53.30.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table:  47% from 40% of Equities Positive and 76% from 60% of Bonds Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Goldman Sachs Third Annual “Year-Ahead” Catalyst
    • Raymond James Security Investor Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor: 
  • Shareholder Meetings: CERO, DGLY, FLGC, FOSL, RKDA, SLRX
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: None of note.
  • Downgrades: AGCO  of note.