Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
- The S&P 500 finished Wednesday lower by -1.16% at 6721.43 from Tuesday lower by -0.24% at 6800.26.
- S&P 500 hit its 35th All-Time Closing High of 2025 on 12/11.
- Futures are higher this morning by +30 (+0.44%) at 6808 on the SP 500 around 6:25 a.m. EST.
- Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 14.28% from 15.62% on Wednesday’s close.
Executive Summary:
- Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield lower at 4.131% from 4.174%.
- The S&P 500 sees support now at 6700 as it failed at 6800.
- President Trump spoke to nation at 9:00 p.m. EST which outlined his first year in the White House.
- Micron (MU) knocked it out of the park with beats on earnings and revenues with raised guidance. Will it stop the AI bleed? Table courtesy of TheTradexchange.com
Key Events of Note Today:
- Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
- Weekly – Jobless Claims and Natural Gas Inventories
- Monthly – CPI, Philadelphia Fed Index and Leading Indicators are due out this morning.
- 5-Year TIPS Auction at 1:00 p.m. EST.
- No Fed Speakers of Note today.
- President Trump schedule:
- President Trump has a busy day with Intelligence Briefing, signing of Executive Order, Christmas Reception, signing of National Defense Authorization and a second Christmas reception.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: MU +0.82, MLKN +0.02 of note.
- Misses: EPAC -0.01 and WS -0.01 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
- IPOs For The Week: CDNL JMG LMRI WLTH of note.
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- ASNS – Pricing of $5 Million Public Offering.
- IVF: Form S-1.. Up to 7,372,122 Shares of Common Stock.
- NUKK: Form S-1.. 13,090,500 Shares of Common Stock.
- NUKK: Form S-1.. Up to 48,000,000 Shares of Common Stock.
- PSIG: FORM F-1 – Up to 15,996,648 Ordinary Shares.
- VMAR – Pricing of Public Offering.
- Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
- Convertibles Filed or Priced: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Private Placements: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders: None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- NXPL: Form S-3.. Up to $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
News After The Close:
- Micron (MU) blew out numbers.
- Live Nation (LYV) unchanged in after hours as prosecutors advised the Department of Justice not to file charges against the company and CEO Michael Rapino regarding Covid-era collusion allegations.
- NOC awarded $334 mln modification to Navy contract.
- No delays 10-Q.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- DAL President Glen Hauenstein to retire, effective February 28; names Joe Esposito as Chief Commercial Officer
- SG announces that co-Founder and Chief Brand Officer, Nathaniel Ru, will retire from his role on January 1, 2026; Zipporah Allen, who joined as Chief Commercial Officer in September, has assumed Ru’s responsibilities
Buybacks:
- BEN announces the repurchase, from time to time, up to an additional 20.8 million shares of its common stock
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today of note: CRM HBAN SNV RNST ASO KLIC of note.
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow day of note: HPE OMC IFF DOC HLNE TPB of note.
- BEN increases quarterly cash dividend 1% to $0.33/share from $0.32/share BEN
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:45 a.m. EST)
- Futures S&P 500 +28, NASDAQ 100 +194, Dow Jones +78, Russell 2000 +7 Europe is higher and Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.131% from 4.178% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are mixed with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $87,239 from $87,029 yesterday morning higher by +1.44% which is at $+1242
Sector Action:
- Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: All others were lower.
- One Month Winners: Healthcare Services, Utilities, Technology, Industrials, Materials and Consumer Defensive of note.
- Three-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Materials, Utilities and Healthcare of note.
- Six-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials and Consumer Cyclicals of note.
- Twelve-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Financials, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Materials, Technology, Financials, Utilities and Industrials of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Today After the Close:
- Tomorrow Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: ACN +0.20, BIRK +0.15, FDS +0.15, KMX +0.12 of note.
- Misses: DRI-0.02 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Still to Report: CTAS of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: This Morning – None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: This Morning – BIRK DRI of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- GapUp: DJT +28.7%, VFF +12%, MU +11.5%, MLKN +7.1%, LULU +6.4%, HQI +6.1%, WDC +4.3%, STX +4.2%, UXIN +4.2%, WS +3.6%, ACN +3.4%, IONQ +2.8%, COIN +2.7%, ABVX +2.1%, JOBY +2% of note.
- GapDown: INSM -20.1%, BIRK -10.6%, EPAC -7.8%, NMG -6.2%, AIR -3.7% of note.
Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list. No new outliers of note.
Insider Action: VSTS sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Bloomberg Lead Story: Bank of England Cuts Rates to 3.75%. (Bloomberg)
- WSJ Lead Story: Warner Brothers Demands Larry Ellison Personal Guarantee. (WSJ)
- NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Heating Costs to rise 9.2% this winter. (NYT)
- Markets Wrap: Tech Stocks fuel rebound as Micron up 12%. (Bloomberg)
Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.
Economic & Geopolitical:
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: None
- President Trump’s schedule for today:
- President Trump attends an Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EST.
- Signs Executive Order at 1:30 p.m. EST.
- Participates in a Christmas Reception at 4:15 p.m. EST.
- Signs the National Defense Authorization Act at 6:00 p.m. EST.
- Attends a second Christmas Reception at 8:15 p.m. EST.
- Economic Data Out –
- Weekly
- Jobless Claims are out at 8:30 a.m. EST.
- Natural Gas Inventories at 10:30 a.m. EST
- Monthly
- November CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 0.30%.
- December Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and estimates are for 2.90.
- November Leading Indicators are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and estimates are for -0.10%.
- Weekly
M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.
Moving Average Table: 40% of Equities Positive and 60% of Bonds Positive.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- Goldman Sachs Third Annual “Year-Ahead” Catalyst
- Raymond James Security Investor Conference
- Top Analyst, Investor: ABSI, BMY, CPA, ROIV, VVV, WSO, WY
- Shareholder Meetings: CELZ, DMA, FDS, ICU, MLSS, RVPH, VRAR
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Meetings: None of note.
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
- Upgrades: CYTK GEV MU SHW of note.
- Downgrades: EPD KW LEN (3) O PYPL SMA UDR XPRO of note.