CAPIS Morning Note – 12/18/24: FOMC Announcement at 2:00 p.m. EDT and Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by -0.39% at 6050.61. Monday higher by 0.38% at 6074.08. The overnight high was hit at 6145.75 at 5:15 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 6113.50 at 6:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 32 points. The current price is higher […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by -0.39% at 6050.61. Monday higher by 0.38% at 6074.08. The overnight high was hit at 6145.75 at 5:15 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 6113.50 at 6:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 32 points. The current price is higher at 6:50 a.m by 0.28% up +17.00.

Key Events of Note Today:

    • Key economic releases include
    • FOMC Announcement and Press Conference at 2:00 p.m. EDT and 2:30 p.m. EDT.
    • 20-Year Bond Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Articles of Note: “The Federal Reserve Should Wait Before Cutting Again”. (Bloomberg Editorial Board)

Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart? Simply email us at [email protected].

General Mills (GIS) beat estimates by $0.18 but lowered guidance for FY 25. How does it rank in the work? Note that short sellers have caught this drop. Historically, Shorts get it right 45% of the time so they need to be respected. Now the Short Intensity is at 95%. The technical rank is weak at 20% today as the stock is trading at $62.50 lower by $3.18 which is -4.82%. We have this ranked as a Type 3 Shorts Correct.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: WOR +0.08, HEI +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
Capital Raises:
  • IPOs For The Week: ALEH, FTRK, HIT, MIMI, MTRS, NTCL, PHH, YSXT
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • NOTV launches proposed public offering of common shares.
    • PESI launches announces proposed public offering of common stock.
    • BNRG: Form F-3.. Up to 1,000,000 Ordinary Shares
    • LAES pricing of $25.0 Million Registered Direct Offering
  • Notes Priced:
    • CLSK announces closing of offering of $650 million 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2030.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • PIPE:.
  • Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down Yesterday:

  • Movers Up: CRVS +16.2%, WOR +14.2%, COMM +11.9%, ENS +4.9%, SDRL +2.9% of note. 
  • Movers Down:  NOTV -11.2%,  PESI -6.4%, PPIH -6.3%, HEI -6.2%,  of note.

News After The Close:

    • 10-K Delays –  of note.
    • LPL Financial (LPLA) reports monthly activity for November 2024; Total advisory and brokerage assets increased 5.1% month/month to $1.76 trillion.
    • Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) files patent infringement complaint against Accelight Technologies, Inc.
    • Amazon’s (AMZN) Teamsters in Southern California authorize strike. (Press Release)
    • Transocean (RIG) announces $111 mln ultra-deepwater drillship contract with Reliance Industries Limited in India.
    • Seadrill (SDRL) awarded a contract in Brazil by Petrobras (PBR) which will contribute approximately $493 mln to its order backlog.
    • Nvidia (NVDA) unveils most affordable Gen AI supercomputer the Jetson Orin Nano Super.
    • Cigna Group (CI): Express Scripts unit awarded $670 mln U.S. Defense Health Agency contract 

Buybacks

  • MA approves new $12.0 bln share repurchase program.
  • FULT also announces $125 million repurchase program.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • ST appoints Stephan von Schuckmann as its new CEO, effective January 1; succeeds Martha Sullivan, who stepped into the CEO role on an interim basis.
  • NMIH appoints Mohammad Yousaf to the newly created position of Chief of Operations and Technology, effective January 1.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: CRM TEF HBAN ES LAMR SUZ CPT BRFS ASO TR RNST UPBD CSGS
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: CINF UWMC SNV VAC KLIC ELME SWBI NRIM OFLX
  • MA increases quarterly cash dividend by 15% to $0.76/share.
  • Fulton Fincl (FULT) increases quarterly cash dividend ~6% to $0.18/share from $0.17/share. 

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +18, NASDAQ +55, Dow Jones +147  and Russell 2000  . Europe is higher with Asia is lower. Bonds are at 4.41% from 4.43% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas lower as well. Gold and Silver are lower with Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $104,966 from $107,103 lower by $1640 -1.55%.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release)
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare were higher yesterday.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Industrials, Financials, Communication Services and Real Estate of note.
  • One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Financials, Industrials, Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Financials, Communication Services, Industrials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Technology of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Financials, Real Estate, Utilities, Consumer Cyclical and Technology of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Financials, Technology, Industrials, Utilities and Communication Services note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Financials, Utilities, Communication Services and Industrials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close:   

  • Thursday Before The Open: 

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: GIS +0.18, ABM +0.03, BIRK +0.03 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: none of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ENS of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance:  of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: SPX A/D is back to September levels, not great.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up:
  • Gap Down

Insider ActionDOW CNC see Insider buying with dumb short selling. TTSH sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Lead Story on Bloomberg:  Fed Set To Deliver Third Straight Rate Cut. (Bloomberg)
  • Market Wrap: Stocks rebound in countdown to Fed. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves Pre-Market: GIS, NVDA and JBL. (CNBC)
  • Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications fell -0.70% this morning.
  • Trump taunts Trudeau says Canada should be a U.S. state. (Bloomberg)
  • Nissan’s top shareholder Renault open to a Honda merger. (Bloomberg)
  • Merck (MRK) to develop weight loss drug in $2 billion deal with Chinese Drug Maker. (CNBC)

Economic:

  • November Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 1,347,000 from 1,311,000. 
  • Weekly Crude Oil Inventories out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)

  • President Biden will receive the Daily Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
  • FOMC Announcement at 2:00 p.m. EDT and presser at 2:30 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity and News: None of note.

Moving Averages On Major Equity Indexes: Moves back to 60% from 70%. Other asset classes struggling.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

    • Sellside Conferences:
      • Goldman Sachs Energy Clean Tech & Utilities Conference
      • Needham Growth Conference
    • Fireside Chat: None of note.
    • Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: TGCB
    • Shareholder Meetings: AZO, BTTR, INM, KITT, NBY, PULM, SDOT
    • Update: None of note.
    • R&D Day: None of note.
    • FDA Presentation:
    • Company Event: None of note.
    • Industry Meetings or Events:
      • Axios Artificial Intelligence (AI) Summit
      • NYC Summit Investor Conference

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

    • Upgrades:  WLK WK PKG OLLI MSCI EXPE CFG 
    • Downgrades:  BYON MYPS GETY