Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 closed Monday lower by -0.61% at 6052.85 from Friday higher by 0.25% at 6090.27. The overnight high was hit at 6066.50 at 5:30 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 6057.50 at 4:40 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 9 points. The current price is 6064.75 at 6:00 a.m.
Executive Summary: CPI and PPI are up Wednesday and Thursday.
Articles That Matter:“Worried About Stocks? $1 Ttrillion in Buybacks Will Help.” by Nir Kaissar. (Bloomberg)
Key Events of Note Today:
- 3 -Year Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart? Simply email us at [email protected].
We had a request for Applied Blockchain (APLD). The stock is strong technically with a technical rank of 90%. Short Intensity is heavy at 85% with the Short Ratio at 5.75. This morning the stock is at $9.70% up 1.94% in the pre-market.
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- What to Do: We would buy this stock as a Short Squeeze, given the strong technical rank. If we owned the stock, then we hold the shares.
- To Short or Not To Short: We are not okay with being short or shorting this name as it is a short squeeze. We note that shorts have gotten it correct 100% of the time when the short selling is heavy. Shorts are 3 for 3 with an average gain of 30.50%. So far the shorts have made 2.90% in their fourth attempt. Given the strength of Bitcoin, this pattern may end. However, if Bitcoin begins to fall apart, then we would close the position. Below the chart is the history of the shorts in Applied Blockchain.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: CASY +0.56, MDB +0.48, MTN +0.38, TOL +0.29, AI +0.10, HQY +0.06, ZUO +0.04, BRZE +0.03, PHR +0.02 of note.
- Flat: YEXT of note.
- Misses: ORCL -0.01 of note.
- IPOs For The Week: ALEH, FTRK, HIT, MIMI, MTRS, NTCL, PHH,
YSXT - New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- TARA commences stock offering.
- SEI files for 6,500,000 shares of common stock offering.
- VICI Pricing of Public Offering of $750 Million of Senior Unsecured Notes.
- SMTC: Full Exercise of Greenshoe Option and Closing of Public Offering
- Notes Priced: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- LSAK files for 14,678,393 shares of common stock by selling shareholders
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- PIPE: MAIA Private Placement of Approximately $950,000.
- Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
- FLNC files for $300 mln convertible notes offering in a private offering.
- DDOG Pricing of Upsized Offering of $870 Million Convertible Senior Notes.
- GAIN Announces Notes Offering
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:
- Movers Up: NBTX +14.7%, AI +10%,BMEA +6.4%, MDB +6.1%, PHR +4.7%, MTN +3.8% of note.
- Movers Down: PL -11.9%, FLNC -10.6%, YEXT -9.6%, TARA -7.9%, ORCL -6.8%, HQY -6.4%, SEI -5.7%, BRZE -4.7%, TOL -2.9%, VOYA -2.2% of note.
News After The Close:
- 10-K Delays – None of note.
- Intuit (INTU) and Amazon (AMZN) announce multi-year strategic partnership; QuickBooks to become AMZN’s preferred partner for financial management.
- KMI releases 2025 financial expectations; projects EPS above consensus.
- Cohen & Steers (CNS) reports prelim AUM of $91.4 bln for November 2024, up $1.7 bln or 1.9% from October 2024.
- Invesco (IVZ) reports prelim November 2024 AUM of $1,856.5 bln, an increase of 4.8% versus previous month-end.
- Voya Financial (VOYA) expects loss ratio for January 2024 policy year to increase between 90% and 105%; result of claims experience through November 30, 2024 continuing to be adverse relative to expectations.
- Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) successfully launched a suborbital mission in November to test hypersonic technology for the Department of Defense.
- NOC awarded $801 mln U.S. Air Force contract.
- Oracle (ORCL) on earnings call: guides FebQ EPS and revs below consensus, FX having an impact. (CNBC)
Buybacks or Repurchases:
- HRTG authorizes a new repurchase plan of $10.0 mln.
- LLY approves new $15.0 bln share repurchase program.
- NTB approves $100 mln repurchase program.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- HSII announces appointment of Nirupam Sinha as Chief Financial Officer, effective January 6, 2025.
- Celanese (CE) appoints Scott Richardson, currently the company’s Chief Operating Officer, as new Chief Executive Officer; Lori Ryerkerk stepping down as Chairman, CEO and director of Celanese at the end of the year.
- Dover (DOV) CFO Brad Cerepak to retire on Jan 31, 2025; Chris Woenker named new CFO.
- Crane (CR) promotes Alejandro (Alex) Alcala to COO, effective immediately.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: TRV, ROST, PEG, OXY, PPL, TXRH, CX, VFC, XP, GBCI, UMBF, HOG, CNO, YOU NSP.
- Stocks Ex Div Wednesday: LRCX HPQ AEE LEA NJR SR FRO KSS DOLE GES
- ARE increases quarterly cash dividend to $1.32/share from $1.30/share.
- EPRT increases quarterly dividend to $0.295/sh from $0.29/sh
- LLY announces 15% increase in quarterly dividend to $1.50/share
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:13 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +6.90, NASDAQ +50.43, Dow Jones -19 and Russell 2000 +4.46. Europe is lower with Germany higher. Asia is lower with Japan higher. Bonds are at 4,232% from 4.18% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. Gold is higher with Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, flat against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $97,259 from $98,293 yesterday higher by $643 at 0.69%.
- Daily Positive Sectors: Materials, Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical, Energy and Healthcare of note.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities, Financials, Communication Services and Industrials of note.
- One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Financials, Industrials, Energy and Utilities of note.
- Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Financials, Communication Services, Industrials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Technology of note.
- Six Month Winners: Financials, Real Estate, Utilities, Consumer Cyclical and Technology of note.
- Twelve Month WinnerMOmONTs: Financials, Technology, Industrials, Utilities and Communication Services note.
- Year to Date Winners: Technology, Financials, Utilities, Communication Services and Industrials of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Tuesday After the Close:
- Wednesday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: GIII +0.31, UNFI +0.18, OLLI +0.01 of note.
- Flat: none of note.
- Misses: AZO -1.01, FERG -0.17, DBI -0.08 of note.
- Still to Report: none of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: MDB, of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: DBI, OLLI, GIII and ORCL of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: As SPX moves up through December, AD line has started to pull back. Worth watching.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: CRDF +25.8%, NBTX +19.7%, AI +9%, NRIX +6.5%, ODC +5.5%, AUTL +4.7%, PHR +4.5%, MTN +3.8%, PTGX +3.7%, ALK +3.4%, BORR +3.3%, FATE +2.9%, LEGN +2.3%, BKD +2.2%, RIOT +2.1%
- Gap Down: DBI -16.6%, YEXT -13.3%, MGX -13.2%, FLNC -8.7%, ORCL -8%, BRZE -6.7%, FERG -6.4%, PL -6.2%, HQY -6.2%, BGNE -5.4%, BMEA -5%, MDB -4.6%, TOL -3.8%, SEI -3.1%, AJG -2.7%, TARA -2.5%, VVI -2.4%, ZETA -2.2%, DDOG -2%.
Insider Action: SCVL sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. TTSH sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Lead Story on Bloomberg: Brazil’s Lula in Intensive Care After Brain Surgery. (Bloomberg)
- Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: Check back as not out yet. (CNBC)
- Market Wrap: Stocks pause after China bump before CPI and PPI next two days. (Bloomberg)
- Insurance CEO Shooting Suspect Charged With Murder in NYC. (Bloomberg)
- Bloomberg: The Big Take – The Middle East After Assad. (Podcast)
- Bloomberg: Odd Lots – How Magnetar is financing the AI boom. (Podcast)
Economic:
- November NFIB Small Business Optimism is due out at 6:00 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 93.70.
- Weekly API Petroleum Inventories are due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
- Federal Reserve Speakers are in a blackout until the last FOMC meeting of the year which is next Tuesday & Wednesday 17th and 18th.
- President Biden receives the Daily Briefing at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
- President Biden delivers remarks at the Brookings Institute at 12:15 p.m. EDT.
- President Biden hosts the Christmas for All Dinner in Celebration of Unity, America and Special Olympics at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
M&A Activity and News:
- None of note.
Moving Averages On Major Equity Indexes: Moves down from 85% to 80%.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
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- Sellside Conferences:
- Bank of America Home Care Conference
- BTIG Software Forum
- Capital One Securities Energy Conference
- Goldman Sachs s Financial Services Conference
- Jefferies Real Estate Conference
- Mizuho Power, Energy & Infrastructure Conference
- Needham Growth Conference
- Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference
- Raymond James TMT and Consumer Conference
- Scotiabank Global Technology Conference
- TD Cowen Human Capital Management Summit
- UBS Global Media & Communications Conference
- Wells Fargo Midstream, Energy & Utilities
- Wolfe Research Reshoring Conference
- Sellside Conferences:
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- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: ALK, BVN, GEV, GHC, HLF, IMMX, IQV, LGND, OKUR, OLMA, SJM, TMDX, TCRX,
TRMB, TRML, VHC - Shareholder Meetings: ABTS, BMY, CALC, DRUG, EONR, INCY, JNJ, LASE, MRK, MSFT, PANW, STG
- Update: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- SABCS Meeting December 10-13
- Company Event: None of note.
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- AACR Special Conference
- American Epilepsy Society Annual Meeting
- American Society of Hematology
- CNBC Financial Advisor Summit
- iAccess Alpha Virtual Best Ideas Winter Conference
- Nasdaq Investor Conference
Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
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- Upgrades: TRV
- Downgrades: BIOA EBAY CNC CCI AAOI
