CAPIS Morning Note – 12/02/22: Job Friday. Estimate is 200,000. Higher Stocks Sell, Lower They Rally.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 4076,57 (lower by -0.09%) from Wednesday at 4080.11 (higher by 3.09%).  The overnight high of 4084.50 was hit at 5:15 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 4066.50 at 8:50 p.m. EST, a range of ~18 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 4076,57 (lower by -0.09%) from Wednesday at 4080.11 (higher by 3.09%).  The overnight high of 4084.50 was hit at 5:15 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 4066.50 at 8:50 p.m. EST, a range of ~18 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was down -8.50.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: ULTA +1.21, ZUMZ +0.19, SMAR +0.14, AOUT +0.11, PD +0.08, PATH +0.06, ASAN +0.06, VEEV +0.06, AMBA +0.04, ZS +0.03.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: CHPT (0.07), MRVL (0.02).

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in awhile you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.


Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Altimeter Growth Corp. 2 (AGCB) Announces Liquidation.
    • Jupiter Wellness Acquisition Corp. (JWAC) to Extend Period to Consummate Initial Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • PYCR: Announces Upsize and Pricing of Offering of Common Stock by Selling Stockholders — Priced @$28.60.
    • SHLS: Prices offering of 26 million shares of common stock at $22.25 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • NKLA: Filed Form 424B3.. Up to 43,229,689 Shares.
    • RDHL: Proposed Public Offering. (Aegis bookmanager).
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • CLVT: Filed Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf .. 281,668,166 Ordinary Share Offered by Certain Selling Shareholders.
    • FENC: Filed Form S-3 .. 3,914,850 Common Shares offering by selling shareholders.
    • PYCR: Offering of Common Stock by Selling Stockholders.. 5 Million shares. (GS Underwriter)
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CI: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Security Shelf.
    • OBT: Filed Form S-3 .. $100 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • DUOT: Filed Form S-1.. 902,002 Shares of Common Stock 433,000 Shares of Common Stock issuable upon Conversion of Series D Convertible Preferred Stock.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: IOT +22%, PATH +8%, SMAR +8%, PD +4%.
    • Trading Down: ASAN -12%, YMAB -11%, ZS -10%, MRVL -7%, AOUT -5%, VEEV -4%, ZUMZ -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: ASAN, ZS, MRVL, PD (CNBC)
    • Marvell (MRVL) stock falls after disappointing earnings and outlook, as CEO cites ‘inventory reductions’ by some customers. (MarketWatch)
    • Disney (DIS) Proposal to Restructure, on McKinsey’s Advice, Triggered Uproar From Creative Executives. (WSJ)
    • DWAC: Ye is no longer buying Parler. (Axios)
    • Veeva (VEEV) stock drops in the extended session after weaker-than-forecast quarterly guidance. (MarketWatch)
    • Asana (ASAN) stock sinks after weaker-than-expected sales forecasts. (MarketWatch)
    • AMC Networks (AMCX) expects $350 million to $475 million in restructuring charges related to layoffs, other cost cuts. (MarketWatch)
    • VIX Closes Below 20 For The First Time Since August 2022.
    • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr:
      • “I imagine we’re going to be considering this. And I think that’s smart; it’ll give us space to begin to modulate a bit and then think about, again, what that rate is, how high it needs to be, how long we need to keep it at that rate in order to get the job done.”
      • “Now we’re at a point, since I believe we’re in restrictive territory, that we can get to a sufficiently restrictive rate at a slower pace,”
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) awarded $431 million U.S. Army contract.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Community Health Systems, Inc. (CYH) Announces Wayne T. Smith to Retire as Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors.
    • Huazhu Group (HTHT) announces that Ms. Hui Chen will step down as the chief financial officer.
    • Insteel Industries (IIIN) announces that Senior Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer Mark Carano has resigned.
    • KKR: Announces New Managing Directors.
    • Maravai LifeSciences (MRVI) Announces Updated CEO Leadership Transition Plans.
    • NRx (NRXP) Receives Nasdaq Notice of Listing Compliance.
    • Opendoor (OPEN) Appoints CFO Carrie Wheeler to CEO; Co-Founder and CEO Eric Wu Transitions to New Role as President, Marketplace.
    • Triumph Bancorp (TBK) completes rebranding effort, changes name to Triumph Financial; stock to begin trading on NASDAQ under new ticker symbol “TFIN“.
    • Verisk (VRSK) CEO Lee Shavel to Assume Role as President, as Mark Anquillare Steps Down.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • FTI Consulting, Inc. (FCN) Announces $400.0 Million Stock Repurchase Authorization.
    • Owens Corning (OC) Authorization for Repurchase of Up to 10 Million Additional Shares. (See Dividends)
    • Raymond James Financial (RJF) Increases Common Stock Repurchase Authorization. (See Dividends)
    • Triumph Group (TGI) announces pro-rata distribution of warrants to purchase common stock.
    • Unum Group (UNM) authorizes $200 million share repurchase program.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Eastman Chemical (EMN) increases its quarterly dividend to $0.79 per share, a 4% increase.
    • Owens Corning (OC) Announces Approximately 50% Dividend Increase.
    • Raymond James Financial (RJF) Declares Quarterly Dividends on Common and Preferred Stock – increase of 24% to $0.42 per share. (MarketWatch)
    • Marriott Vacations (VAC) increases its quarterly dividend to $0.72 per share, a 16% increase

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -1, Dow Jones -21,  NASDAQ -8,  and Russell 2000 -0.3. (as of 7:55 a.m. EST).  Asia lower.  Europe is lower ex Germany.  VIX Futures are at 21.80 from 22.17. Gold lower, Silver higher and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent higher with Natural Gas lower. $ is flat. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.521% from 3.59%. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $17,034 from $17,129 higher by +0.57%.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Healthcare, Basic Materials, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Financial, Utilities, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Industrials, Basic Materials, Financial of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy, Financials, and Healthcare of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

The U.S. indexes finished Thursday mixed, with the Dow retreating, after data showed that household spending rose sharply in October as the pace of underlying inflation eased. Read today’s full markets roundup here.  Oil prices were higher after The Wall Street Journal reported that the European Union is moving toward a price cap of $60 a barrel on Russian crude. (WSJ)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: GCO +0.08.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: CBRL.


  • Positive Guidance: ULTA, ZS, SMAR, PD, IOT of note.
  • Negative Guidance: AMBA, MRVL, ZUMZ, VEEV, PATH, GCO of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: IOT +21%, PATH +11%, SMAR +8%, AOUT +8%, CARG +7%, SPB +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: ASAN -18%, YMAB -15%, THTX -13%, ZS -9%, MRVL -7%, PYCR -5%, VEEV -5%, SHLS -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  GOCO sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: MRVL, HZNP DASH, ZS, PD, RIGL, OPEN, ASAN, OC  (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Goldman Traders Bring In Bumper Revenues, But Will See a Lower Bonus. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Musk’s Neuralink Hopes lead for second day. (Bloomberg)
  • Wrong Covid Tests in China raise concerns Covid will never end. (CNBC)
  • Rail strike averted as Senate passes labor bill. (Bloomberg)
  • Silicon Valley is hot on nuclear energy. (CNBC)
  • Tesla (TSLA) delivers the first semitrailer to Pepsi. (WSJ)
  • Uber (UBER) may not eliminate jobs. (Bloomberg)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score stays at 91% as markets remain in check after yesterdays monster move.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route Joint Base Andrews, 12:25 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route Boston, Massachusetts, 12:55 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives in Boston, Massachusetts, 2:15 p.m. EST
    • The President greets His Royal Highness The Prince of Wales, 2:50 p.m. EST
    • The President participates in an International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers phone bank, 4:10 p.m. EST
    • The President participates in a reception for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, 5:45 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Boston, Massachusetts en route Joint Base Andrews, 6:55 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives at Joint Base Andrews, 8:20 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route Camp David, 8:30 p.m. EST


  • November Nonfarm Payrolls is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and expected to come in at 200,000 from 261,000 and the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 3.7%.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 9:15 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans 10:15 a.m. EST AND 2:00 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • BorgWarner (BWA) announced that it has acquired Drivetek AG.
  • Intuit (INTU) to Acquire Financial Health Startup SeedFi.
  • Marsh McLennan (MMC) acquires McDonald Zaring Insurance.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
  • Company Meetings: ALLR, ECOR, GATE
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ALL, NAT
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: