CAPIS Morning Note – 11/30/22: Stocks Look Forward to A Speech From Chairman Powell at 1:30 p.m. EST

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3957.63 (lower by -0.16%) from Monday at 3963.94 (lower by -1.54%).  The overnight high of 3977.75 was hit at 4:30 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 3956.50 at 7:00 p.m. EST, a range of ~21 points high to low.  At 7:20 a.m. EST, the S&P 500…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3957.63 (lower by -0.16%) from Monday at 3963.94 (lower by -1.54%).  The overnight high of 3977.75 was hit at 4:30 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 3956.50 at 7:00 p.m. EST, a range of ~21 points high to low.  At 7:20 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was up +9.75.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: INTU +0.46, CMP +0.25, NTAP +0.15, WDAY +0.15, CRWD +0.08.
  • Flat: HPE.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in awhile you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Carbon Revolution, a Leading Global Manufacturer of Carbon Fiber Wheels to the Automotive Industry, to List in U.S. via Business Combination with Twin Ridge Capital Acquisition Corp (TRCA).
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • ASPN: Announces Pricing of Upsized Public Offering of $240 Million of Common Stock for 25,263,158 shares of its common stock at $9.50 per share.
    • ASTS: Announces pricing of upsized $75,000,000 public offering of Class A common stockhas agreed to sell 13,636,364 shares of Class A Common Stock at a price to the public of $5.50 per share.
    • GHSI: Announces Pricing of Aggregate $4.75 Million Institutional Private Placement of Series C and Series D Redeemable Preferred Stock.
    • WISA: Pricing of $7.6 Million Public Offering.. 50,400,000 units and 3,600,000 pre-funded units at an effective public offering price of $0.14 per unit.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • FANG: Prices Offering of Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ASPN: Proposed Public Offering of $200 Million of Common Stock.. Cowen and BCS Bookmanagers.
    • ASTS: Filed Form 424B5.. $65,000,000 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
    • ALTO: Filed Form S-3.. 1,282,051 shares of Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • ALTO: Files for 1,282,051 common stock offering by selling stockholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • WBX: Private Placement of Class A Ordinary Shares.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BFI: Filed Form S-3.. $100,000,000.00 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • SHIP: Launches Tender Offer to Purchase its Outstanding Class E Warrants.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • VERI: Announces Repurchase of $60.0 Million of 1.75% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2026.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: HZNP +31%, VRDN +21%, W +11%, WDAY +8%.
    • Trading Down: XFOR -20%, CRWD -18%, NTAP -11%, ASTS -10%, NOTV -5%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: WDAY, CRWD, HPE, NTAP, HZNP, ASTS (CNBC)
    • TurboTax maker Intuit (INTU) lowers revenue guidance for the year. (MarketWatch)
    • Horizon Pharma (HZNP) confirms preliminary discussions regarding potential offer to buyout the company from Amgen (AMGN), Janssen Global Services (JNJ) or Sanofi (SNY)
    • NetApp (NTAP) stock falls more than 10% after fiscal 2023 guidance disappoints. (MarketWatch)
    • AMZN Amazon’s Cloud Unit Expects to Keep Hiring in 2023 “Business Is Still Growing Rapidly,” Executive Says Amazon Will Keep Building Data Centers, Marketing Chief Says.
    • Boeing (BA) awarded $398 million U.S. Air Force modification contract.
    • Raytheon Technologies (RTX) awarded a not-to-exceed $512 mln modification to a previously awarded U.S. Navy contract.
    • General Electric (GE) Aviation awarded $157.18 million Navy contract.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • AGLE appoints Jeffrey Goldberg as CEO.
    • Berry Petroleum (BRY) provides management succession plan; Fernando Araujo to become CEO.
    • China Index Holdings (CIH) Receives Approval to Transfer to Nasdaq Capital Market.
    • Enbridge (ENB) announces Pamela L. Carter as Chair of the Board.
    • Eve (EVEX) Receives Expected Notice from NYSE Related to Delayed Filing of Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
    • Freeline (FRLN) Receives Approval to Transfer to Nasdaq Capital Market.
    • FFIE Executive Robert Kruse Resigns From Company.
    • Floor & Decor (FND) promotes Bryan Langley to CFO.
    • Foot Locker (FL) names Elliott Rodgers COO. (MarketWatch)
    • PBF Energy and PBF Logistics (PBF) Announce the Departure of Chief Financial Officer.
    • Puhui Wealth Investment Management Co., Ltd. (PHCF) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Hearings Panel’s Determination Notification.
    • Synopsys (SNPS) appoints Shelagh Glaser as CFO.
    • Solid Power (SLDP) Announces CEO Transition.
    • TISI: Keith Tucker Appointed as Chief Executive Officer at Team, Inc.
    • Treasure Global (TGL) Receives Nasdaq Notice on Late Filing of Its Form 10-Q.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Enbridge (ENB) Announced intent to renew the Company’s normal course issuer bid program for 2023, allowing for the repurchase of up to $1.5 billion of its outstanding common shares.
    • Prenetics Group Ltd. (PRE) announces $20 mln stock repurchase program over 2 year duration.
    • Semantix (STIX) Announces Stock Repurchase Plan.
    • Sterling (STER) announces $100 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Workday (WDAY) Announces Share Repurchase Program of $500 million.
  • Stock Splits or News: 
    • FUV trading r/s price.
    • Tuesday Morning Corporation (TUEM) Announces Reverse Stock Split. (MarketWatch)
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • CBL Properties (CBL) Declares Special Common Stock Dividend of $2.20 Per Common Share, Payable All in Cash.
    • Enbridge (ENB) Declared 28th consecutive annual common share dividend increase, raising it by 3.2% to $0.8875 per quarter.
    • McCormick (MKC) Announces Increase in Quarterly Dividend. (MarketWatch)
    • PEP Goes ex div tomorrow for $1.15.
    • Royal Bank of Canada (RY) declared a quarterly dividend of $1.32 per share reflecting an increase of $0.04 or 3%.
    • TAP Goes ex div tomorrow for $0.38.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +5, Dow Jones +12,  NASDAQ +37,  and Russell 2000 +2. (as of 8:00 a.m. EST).  Asia higher ex Japan.  Europe is higher.  VIX Futures are at 23.20 from 23.12. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent higher with Natural Gas higher as well. $ is flat. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.725% from 3.659%. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $16,872 from $16,479 higher by +2.51%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Real Estate, Energy, Basic Materials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Technology of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Industrials, Basic Materials, Financial of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy, Financials, and Healthcare of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

U.S. stocks ended mostly lower Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite booking a third straight day of losses as investors assessed downbeat data on U.S. Consumer Confidence and China’s step toward potentially easing its strict COVID policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.01% closed about flat, while the S&P 500 SPX, -0.16%  and the technology-heavy Nasdaq COMP, -0.59%, according to preliminary data from FactSet. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its U.S. Consumer Confidence index fell in November to a four-month low amid concerns over a slowing economy and high inflation. (MarketWatch)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: CRM, SNPS, SPLK, PSTG, OKTA, NTNX, ESTC, PVH, VSCO, NCNO, CRDO, SMTC, LZB, YEXT of note.
  • Thursday Before the Open: TD, BMO, DG, CM, KR, PDCO, GFF, GIII, DBI, SCWX, BIG of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: DOOO +1.28, TITN +0.67, BEKE +0.66, RY +0.08, DCI +0.05, LESL +0.04, HRL +0.01.
  • Flat: WOOF.
  • Misses: FRO (0.01).
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: HPE, DOOO, TITN, ENB of note.
  • Negative Guidance: NTAP, INTU, BEKE, HRL, LESL of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: HZNP +28%, VRDN +15%, XPEV +13%, W +10%, WDAY +10%, BEKE +8%, CBL +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: CRWD -19%, NTAP -12%, XFOR -12%, ASPN -12%, ASTS -6% of note.

Insider Action: SCPH, DDD sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  GOCO sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: HRL WOOF CRWD HZNP STT NTAP WDAY HPE (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Stocks Gain, Dollar Drops as Investors Await Powell. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Banks Stuck with $42 Billion Debt Seize Chance to Offload it. (Bloomberg)
  • China vows to crack down on “hostile forces” as police deter protests. (Bloomberg)
  • China health officials are warning the government to avoid lengthy lockdowns. (WSJ)
  • Protests continue in Guangzhou. (Reuters)
  • Euro-Zone Inflation finally begins to drop. (Bloomberg)
  • Mortgage rates drop for the third straight week but so does demand. (CNBC)
  • Alzheimer’s Drug Trial shown to slow cognitive decline for Lecanemab from Eisai and Biogen (BIIB). (CNBC)
  • Airbnb (ABNB) launches the first hosting platform for apartment tenants. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 45%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route the White House Tribal Nations Summit, 11:05 a.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks at the White House Tribal Nations Summit, 11:30 a.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House Tribal Nations Summit en route the White House, 12:15 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives at the White House, 12:20 p.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 2:00 p.m. EST
    • The First Family and The Second Family attend the National Christmas Tree Lighting; The President and the Secretary of the Interior deliver remarks, 5:30 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST
    • 30-YEAR Mortgage Rate Actual: 6.49% VS 6.67% previous
    • Mortgage Applications Actual -0.8% Previous 2.2%
    • Composite: -0.8%, Purchase: +3.8%, ReFi: -12.9%
  • November ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EST and expected to fall to 200,000 from 239,000.
  • Q3 GDP (second estimate) isdue out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 2.7% from 2.6%.
  • Int. Trade in Goods 8:30 a.m. EST
  • Wholesale Inventories 8:30 a.m. EST
  • November Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EST and expected to rise to 47.5 from 45.2.
  • October Pending Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to improve to -5.2% from -10.2%.
  • JOLTS 10:00 a.m. EST
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EST
  • Beige Book 2:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Research Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 8:50 a.m. EST
  • Federal Research Board of Governors Lisa D. Cook 12:35 p.m. EST
  • Federal Research Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 12:35 p.m. EST
  • Federal Research Chair Jerome Powell 1:30 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Corteva Agriscience (CTVA) Signs Agreement to Acquire Stoller Group, One of the Largest Independent Biologicals Companies in the Industry.
  • Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP) takeover value could be $135 per share. (WFC)
  • BBH Announces Termination of Investor Services Transaction with State Street (STT).
  • NextGen Healthcare (NXGN) has signed a definitive agreement to acquire TSI Healthcare.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Alliance Global Partners Biotech Conference 2022 (11/30/22-12/01/22)
    • Bank of America BofA Tech Hybrid Fieldtrip (virtual) 2022
    • Barclays Global Automotive and Mobility Tech Conference 2022 (11/30/22-12/01/22)
    • Canaccord Defensive Technology Conference 2022
    • Credit Suisse 10th Annual Industrials Conference 2022 (11/30/22-12/02/22)
    • H.C. Wainwright 1st Annual Investor Conference on Bacteriophage 2022
    • Morgan Stanley Energy & Clean Tech Symposium
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Bank of America Securities Leveraged Finance Conference 2022 (11/28/22-11/30/22)
        • Bank of America Global Research Materials & Infrastructure Conference 2022 (11/29/22-12/01/22)
        • Barclays Eat, Sleep, Play Conference 2022 (11/29/22-11/30/22)
        • Berenberg 1-1 Symposium at the German Equity Forum 2022 (11/28/22-11/30/22)
        • Citi Chemicals for the Non-Chemist Conference 2022
        • Credit Suisse 26th Annual Technology TMT Conference 2022 (11/28/22-12/01/22)
        • Evercore ISI HealthCONx Conference (11/29/22-12/01/22)
        • Piper Sandler 34th Annual Healthcare Conference 2022 (11/29/22-12/01/22)
        • Redburn CEO Conference (11/29/22-11/30/22)
        • RSB Annual Conference 2022 (11/28/22-12/01/22)
        • Scotiabank Mining Conference (11/29/22-11/30/22)
        • UBS Global Real Estate CEO/CFO Conference 2022 (11/29/22-12/01/22)
        • UBS Global Emerging Markets (GEMS) One-on-One Conference 2022 (11/28/22-11/30/22)
        • Wells Fargo 6th Annual TMT Summit 2022 (11/29/22-12/01/22)
  • Company Meetings: CPB, ELOX, HUIZ
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: BFRI, LESL, MAC
  • Update:
    • Sierra Metals (SMTS) Conference Call on the Appointment of Interim CEO.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: