CAPIS Morning Note – 11/22/22: Futures Green As FTX Hearings On The Horizon

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 3949.94 (down -0.39%).  The overnight high of 3969.25 was hit at 4:44 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 3947.75 at 3:40 a.m. EST, a range of 21 points high to low in a short period of time.  At 7:23 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 3949.94 (down -0.39%).  The overnight high of 3969.25 was hit at 4:44 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 3947.75 at 3:40 a.m. EST, a range of 21 points high to low in a short period of time.  At 7:23 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was up +10.

Thanksgiving Week Slow Market and News Supplemental:

Where else can you get this type of line in a research weekly talking about the ETF Turkey (TUR) during Thanksgiving week: “Since the moving averages are positive on all time frames, this could really start to cook!”   Here is the latest weekly update from Fred Meissner, CMT and looking into positive markets into year end.  (The FRED Report November 21, 2022)

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: DELL +0.69, MMS +0.56, GDS +0.42, ZM +0.23, A +0.14, ENTA +0.08.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: URBN (0.02).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • CIIG Capital Partners II, Inc.  (CIIG): Zaap Electric Vehicles Limited enters SPAC merger agreement with CIIG; plans to trade under ticker “ZAPP”, expected to close first half of 2023.
    • Forest Road Acquisition Corp. II (FRXB): HyperloopTT enters SPAC deal with FRXB, $289 million in common stock issued to HyperloopTT at close; plans to trade under ticker “HYPE”, deal to close in first half of 2023.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BDSX: Closing of Upsized Public Offering and Full Exercise of Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
    • ICU: Filed Form S-1.. 9,829,000 Shares of Common Stock 6,438,000 Warrants to Purchase Common Stock.
    • MULN: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 220,828,539 Shares of Common Stock.
    • PFGC: Files common stock offering.
    • SCPH: Proposed Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock. (SVB and Cowen bookmanagers)
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • BRBR: Secondary Equity Offering of 4,597,339 Shares of Common Stock Held by Post. (JPM Bookmanager)
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • INM: Announces Closing of $6 Million Private Placement Priced at a Premium to Market.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • FANG: Filed Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • ATTO: confirmed that on November 18, 2022, MCI Capital, LC commenced a tender offer to purchase up to 1,525,000 of the Company’s ordinary shares at a price of $5.00 per share in cash.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • BTOG: Filed Form F-3.. Up to 101,200,000 Ordinary Shares Underlying Senior Secured Convertible Note Up to 39,758,932 Ordinary Shares Underlying Warrants.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: MMS +15%, ZTO +5%, A +4%.
    • Trading Down: GMDA -16%, SCPH -11%, ZM -5%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: ZM, DELL, URBN, A (CNBC).
    • Iger announces first big moves in new tenure as Disney (DIS) CEO: Restructuring and departure of Chapek right hand Kareem Daniel. (CNBC)
    • Zoom (ZM) shares drop on light forecast as company faces ‘heightened deal scrutiny’. (CNBC)
    • Tesla (TSLA) stock at two-year low, other EV-maker shares plunge as concerns simmer about China, oil futures. (MarketWatch)
    • Crypto Firm Genesis Warns Of Bankruptcy Without New Funding.
    • US Presses China to Ease Up on Taiwan as Defence Officials Meet. (Bloomberg)
    • FTX Management Tracks Down $1.24Bln In Cash Holdings. (Financial Times)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): Terry Burman to step down as Chairperson of the Board.
    • Camping World (CWH) COO Tamara Ward to retire, effective December 31; Matthew Wagner, Exec VP, to be promoted to COO role on January 1, 2023.
    • Pop Culture Group Co., Ltd (CPOP) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • F45 Training Holdings (FXLV) CFO Chris Payne, as well as a member of the Board, stepped down effective November 15 to address immediate personal and family matters.
    • Horizon Global (HZN) Announces Appointment of John C. Kennedy as Interim President and Chief Executive Officer.
    • Integrated Rail and Resources Acquisition Corp. (IRRX) Announces Changes to Board and Senior Management.
    • KVH Industries, Inc. (KVHI) Receives Expected Deficiency Notice from Nasdaq Related to Delayed Filing of Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
    • PacWest Bancorp (PACW) appoints current President Paul W. Taylor to CEO.
    • Puhui Wealth Investment Management Co., Ltd. (PHCF) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Deficiency Notification.
    • ReneSola (SOL) announced that Himanshu H. Shah, Founder and CIO of Shah Capital was appointed as Chairman of the Board of Directors.
    • Symbotic (SYM) names Rick Cohen as CEO.
    • Tattooed Chef (TTCF) Receives Notice of Non-Compliance from Nasdaq.
    • Unisys (UIS) Receives Notice of Late Filing from the NYSE.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Actelis Networks, Inc. (ASNS) Authorizes up to $1 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • CVS: Form 8K — On November 17, 2022, the Board of Directors of the Company approved the 2022 Repurchase Program pursuant to which the Company is authorized to repurchase up to $10 billion of shares of the Company’s common stock.
    • GOTU Announces a Share Repurchase Program.
    • ZTO Express (ZTO) approves upsizing the aggregate value of its repurchase program to $1.5 billion and extending the effective time by one year.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • EBON trading r/s price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Fulton Fincl (FULT) declares special dividend of $0.06 per share.
    • Hingham (HIFS) Declares Regular and Special Dividend.
    • iStar (STAR) declares special common stock dividend payable in shares of Safehold common stock.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +11, Dow Jones +82,  NASDAQ +25, and Russell 2000 +6. (as of 8:04 a.m. EST). Asian markets were mixed with the Hang Seng down 1.3% and the Nikkei up 0.6%.  European Markets had mostly a positive note to them.  Spain’s IBEX was up 1.0%.  France was down just a smidge at -0.2%.  VIX Futures are at 22.41 up 0.05 points or 0.22% . Gold and Silver up. WTI Crude Oil up +1.5% and Brent Oil Futures up with Natural Gas down -2.36%. $ is mixed. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.801% down a touch from yesterday. Bitcoin is at $15,791.76 essentially flat morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Defensive, Utilities, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Energy, Technology, Communication Services of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Industrials, Basic Materials, Financial of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy, Basic Materials, Financials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Industrials, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

Stocks closed Monday in the red, starting the Thanksgiving week on a downbeat note. The S&P 500 was down 0.4%. The Dow Industrials dropped 0.1%, or about 45 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1%. The two-year Treasury yield finished at 4.544%, from 4.510% to finish last week. The 10-year yield was 3.825%, from 3.817%. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.2% to finish Monday at $87.45 a barrel. WTI, its U.S. counterpart, settled 0.4% lower. Front-month gold for November delivery fell 0.8% to finish the day at $1,737.40 per troy ounce, a fourth-consecutive daily retreat. Silver finished off 0.6%, while copper dropped 1.7%, falling for a sixth straight session. (WSJ)

 Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: VMW, ADSK, HPQ, JWN, GES of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: DE, KC of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BIDU +1.21, VIPS +0.80, CSIQ +0.74, DY +0.49, BBY +0.36, DKS +0.34, AMWD +0.32, WMG +0.16, ADI +0.14, ANF +0.13, CAL +0.03, DLTR +0.02, MDT +0.02, SGHC +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: BURL (0.09).
  • Still to Report: AEO, ROAD, JACK.


  • Positive Guidance: IPAR, MMS, ADI, DLTR, ANF of note.
  • Negative Guidance: ZM, DELL, VIPS, CSIQ, DY, MDT of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: VIPS +5%, ZTO +4%, STAR +4%, A +4%, FULT +4%.
  • Gap Down: GMDA -18%, SCPH -13%, ZM -9%, API -6%.

Insider Action: WW, RYAN sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  TMCI, NICK, BRT sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens Tuesday. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: FTX Latest: Filing Shows $1.24 Billion Cash; Hearing to Begin. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story:  Beyond Meat (BYND) Plant’s Dirty Conditions Revealed in Photos, Documents. (Bloomberg)
  • What to Expect as FTX Debuts Biggest Crypto Chapter 11 in Court. (WSJ)
  • China Pauses Some Purchases of Russian Oil Ahead of Price Cap. (Bloomberg)
  • China Sees Surge in Covid Cases Amid LockDowns (FT)
  • Crypto Lender Genesis Asks Binance and Apollo for Cash. BTC, BITO, MSTR, COIN, HOOD, RIOT, APO (WSJ)
  • Best Buy (BBY) sticks to holiday-quarter outlook as electronics demand holds up. (CNBC)
  • Billionaire Investor Carl Icahn Is Betting Against GameStop (GME) Shares. (Bloomberg)
    • Side note on Erlanger Research – GME right now is not too heavily shorted, but certainly one to keep an eye on.  Short Intensity Grades demonstrate that historically the shorts do get squeezed.  Also, for a shorter term swings, the Erlanger Options rank in this stock is pretty telling for the ebbs and flows (i.e. Put activity getting to high causing a stall in down movement or pop in price.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score comes down a touch to 62%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:15 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, COVID-19 Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha, and Chief Medical Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, 11:30 a.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady depart the White House en route Joint Base Andrews, 5:50 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady depart Joint Base Andrews en route Nantucket, Massachusetts, 6:20 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady arrive in Nantucket, Massachusetts, 7:30 p.m. EST


  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EST
  • Richmond Feed Mfg Index 10:00 a.m. EST
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester 11:00 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Kansas City President Esther George 2:15 p.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard 2:45 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • AgroFresh Solutions (AGFS) confirms that the Company entered into a definitive merger agreement with investment funds affiliated with Paine Schwartz Partners pursuant to which such funds will acquire all of the outstanding common stock of the Company for $3.00 per share in cash.
  • CVR Energy (CVI) Announces Exploration of Potential Spin-Off of its Nitrogen Fertilizer Business.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Kepler Cheuvreux Virtual Life Science Days (11/21/22-11/22/22)
        • TD Securities Technology Conference (11/21/22-11/22/22)
  • Company Meetings: ATNX
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: GATO, GROY, TME
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: