Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
- The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.92% at 6672.41 from Friday lower by -0.05% at 6734.11.
- S&P 500 hit its 34th All-Time Closing High of 2025 on 10/29.
- Futures are lower this morning by -11.75 (-0.18%) at 6680.25 on the S&P 500 around 6:10 a.m. EST.
- Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 13.44% from 14.49% Friday’s close.
Executive Summary:
- Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield higher at 4.113% from 4.127%.
- The S&P 500 broke below 6700 yesterday with support now at 6600.
- All eyes on Nvidia (NVDA) and its earnings due out after the close on Wednesday.
- The Daily A/D Line is at its lowest level since April. Not good.
- AI and Bitcoin continue to sell-off.
Key Events of Note Today:
- Economic news of note today include NAHB Housing Index and the API Weekly Petroleum Institute.
- Federal Reserve Speakers – 2 of note: Barr and Barkin.
- President Trump hosts the Royal Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from late morning through dinner.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: TCOM +19.54, XP +0.04 of note.
- Misses: HP -0.24 and LFMD -0.08 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
- IPOs For The Week: None of note.
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- AII: Form S-1.. 3,000,000 Shares.
- AKTX: Form S-1.. 12,750,000,000 Ordinary Shares Represented by 6,375,000 American Depositary Shares.
- APM: Form F-1.. Up to 2,060,000 Class A Ordinary Shares Upon Exercise of Certain Warrants.
- APYX – Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.
- ARTL: Form S-1.. Resale of up to 899,972 Shares of Common Stock.
- BDRX: Form F-1.. Up to 3,377,110 Units, Each Unit Consisting of One American Depositary Share and One Series L Warrant to Purchase One American Depositary Share.
- FENC – Closing of Offering of Common Shares.
- FLY: Form S-1.. 11,111,116 Shares.
- GOCO: FORM S-3 – 4,766,219 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
- IVVD – Pricing of $125 Million Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.
- NUVL – Public Offering of Common Stock.
- STKH: Form F-3.. Up to 1,217,603 American Depositary Shares, each representing four thousand (4,000) Ordinary Shares.
- TE: Form S-3.. 1,600,000 Shares of Series B Preferred Stock 5,000,000 Shares of Series B-1 Preferred Stock 38,823,528 Shares of Common Stock.
- Notes Filed Or Priced:
- OSIS – Prices Upsized $500 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering.
- Convertibles Filed or Priced: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Private Placements: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders:
- NVTS: FORM S-1 – Up to 14,814,813 Shares of Class A Common Stock Offered by Selling Stockholders.
- RENT: Form S-1.. 28,532,444 Shares of Class A Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- MELI: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
- GPUS: Form S-3.. $1,000,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
News After The Close:
- Helmerich & Payne (HP) reactivations reflect strengthening market conditions we are experiencing across the Middle East and reinforce H&P’s role as a key drilling solutions provider in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
- GD awarded a $2.28 billion modification to Navy contract.
- RTX awarded a $698 million Army contract.
- 10-Q Delays: None of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- HLIO names Jeremy Evans as CFO effective immediately.
Buybacks:
- XP opens new share buyback program totaling R$1.0 billion.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today of note: CVX TRI PRU CTSH STE VRSN FTI SWKS DRS EDU LSTR BRSL VC HP IOSP NRP PRG of note.
- Stocks Ex Div tomorrow of note: None of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)
- Futures S&P 500 -33.25 NASDAQ 100 -152.50 Dow Jones -313 Europe is lower and Asia is lower. Bond yield is at 4.102% from 4.12% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $91,332 from $95,421 lower by -0.38% which is $-369.
Sector Action:
- Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Utilities and Healthcare were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: All others were lower led by Financials, Materials and Technology.
- One Month Winners: Healthcare Services, Utilities, Technology, Industrials, Materials and Consumer Defensive of note.
- Three-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Materials, Utilities and Healthcare of note.
- Six-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials and Consumer Cyclicals of note.
- Twelve-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Financials, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Materials, Technology, Financials, Utilities and Industrials of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Today After the Close:
- Wednesday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: PDD +4.49, BIDU +3.43, AS +0.08, MDT +0.05, ACM +0.02, OCSL +0.01, WB +0.01 of note.
- Misses: HD -0.10, ENR -0.07, BRBR -0.03 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: This Morning – None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: This Morning – AS, BRBR, ENR, HD of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- GapUp: GRRR +15.7%, AXTA +7.9%, AS +7.2%, JHX +7%, VNDA +5.9%, ESLT +5%, ACHR +3.1%, TCOM +2.8%, XP +2.3%, WB +2%, FUTU +2%of note.
- GapDown: LFMD -25.2%, IVVD -15.5%, BDRX -10.8%, OABI -9.9%, CEVA -6.1%, HP -6.1%, NUVL -4.5%, ZYME -3.1%, STKH -3%, HD -2.2%, FIGR -2.1%, CALX -2%of note.
Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list. No new outliers of note.
Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. KVHI LINE MRVI GTE MDRR ICHR SRZN GMCR see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history:
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Bloomberg Lead Story: Crypto Plunge Adds Angst As Market Extends Broad Retreat. (Bloomberg)
- Market Wrap: US Futures, Bitcoin trim losses after selloff. (Bloomberg)
- Japanese government bonds are falling ahead of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s fiscal package.
- United Nations Security Council approves President Trump’s Gaza peace plan.
- Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) proposed a new healthcare plan that has President Trump’s support.
- JP Morgan Vice Chairman Daniel Pinto says that the AI Bubble may be bursting. (CNBC)
- Google (GOOG, GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai says “no company is going to be immune” if the artificial intelligence bubble bursts.
- Bloomberg Odd Lots: Doubeline Capital Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Gundlach says private credit is a “powder keg” of garbage lending. (Podcast)
Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.
Economic & Geopolitical:
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
- Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr at 10:30 a.m. EST
- Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at 11:00 a.m. EST
- President Trump schedule for today:
- The President greets the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at 11:15 a.m. EDT.
- The President participates in a Bilateral Meeting with the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at 11:45 a.m. EDT.
- The President participates in a Bilateral Lunch with the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at 12:15 a.m. EDT.
- The President and The First Lady participate in a dinner with the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at 7:15 p.m. EDT.
- Economic Releases:
- October Import/Export Prices and Industrial Production are scheduled but due to the government shutdown will not be reported.
- November NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
- Weekly API Petroleum Institute Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.
Moving Average Table:
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- Baird Defense & Government Conference
- Citi’s FinTech Conference
- Craig-Hallum Alpha Select InvestorConference
- J.P. Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference
- Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference
- Jefferies Real Estate Conference
- RBC Capital Global TIMT Conference
- Stephens Investment Conference
- TD Cowen Annual Energy Conference
- Wells Fargo TMT Summit
- Top Analyst, Investor: ACM APPF APTV ARWR BVN FCX TAC UPWK VXRT
- Shareholder Meetings: CPB INTA MPC ORCL SNDK TLRY
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Meetings:
- ISG AI Impact Summit
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
- Upgrades: DECK, GOOGL, LGN, XPEV of note.
- Downgrades: HON, RCKT of note.