CAPIS Morning Note – 11/07/25: Stocks Look To Close Week Lower

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -1.12% at 6720.32 from Wednesday higher by 0.37% at 6796.29 and Tuesday lower by -1.17% at 6771.55. S&P 500 hit its 34th All-Time Closing High of 2025 last Tuesday. Futures are lower this morning by -25 (-0.37%) at 6722 on the S&P 500 […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: 

  • The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -1.12% at 6720.32 from Wednesday higher by 0.37% at 6796.29 and Tuesday lower by -1.17% at 6771.55.
  • S&P 500 hit its 34th All-Time Closing High of 2025 last Tuesday.
  • Futures are lower this morning by -25 (-0.37%) at 6722 on the S&P 500 around 6:15 a.m. EST.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 15.55% from 14.26% yesterday’s close.

Executive Summary:

  • Fed Speakers: Today sees 3 speak with 2 already have spoken, Stephan Miran @ 3pm EST.
  • Bond yield on the 10-Year is at 4.136% from  4.135%. Still above 4.00% and now pushing to a new monthly high.
  • Bad week for stocks continues this morning. Bounce next week? Since the peak on S&P 500 on 10/29 off -2.75%.
  • Can the Government Shutdown end by next week?

Key Events of Note Today:  

  • Economic news of note today include both the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Baker Hughes Rig Count. Monthly Jobs Report is due out today but will not be released.
  • Federal Reserve Speakers – One, see below. 8 left for the week.
  • President Trump has a bilateral lunch meeting with the Prime Minister of Hungary and then heads to Palm Beach at 3:30 p.m. EST.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: AGO +1.16, CIVI +0.66, EXPE +0.60, ICUI +0.60, MTD +0.49, PLMR +0.41, GMED +0.40, SNDK +0.34, GCT +0.27, TTD +0.25, EOG +0.25, AKAM +0.22, XPOF +0.22, JANX +0.22, FNF +0.21, NHI +0.19, AMN +0.19, LMAT +0.18, DKNG +0.17, NOG +0.16, MODG +0.16, ED +0.16, HRB +0.15, ALRM +0.15, AORT +0.14, NRDS +0.13, HUN +0.13, CE +0.12, AFRM +0.12, RBA +0.12, ACHR +0.10, INOD +0.10, BILL +0.10, NTLA +0.09, DBX +0.09, MNST +0.08, YELP +0.08, SOLV +0.07, MP +0.07, DOCS +0.07, PAR +0.07, TXG +0.07, PCRX +0.07, G +0.07, SOUN +0.06, LASR +0.06, OS +0.06, TRUP +0.06, FROG +0.06, STEP +0.05, FIVN +0.05, ONTO +0.05, RCKT +0.05, MAZE +0.05, GRND +0.04, DRH +0.04, MWA +0.04, VCTR +0.04, WPM +0.03, EVTC +0.03, SYNA +0.03, CERT +0.03, FIGS +0.03, NWSA +0.03, ZYME +0.03, TNDM +0.02, QXO +0.02, IREN +0.02, CON +0.02, AHR +0.02, CPT +0.02, OMDA +0.02, PTON +0.02, PGNY +0.02, CARG +0.02, DNLI +0.01, ARLO +0.01, QNST +0.01, WSC +0.01, GEN +0.01, LION +0.01, MCHP +0.01.
  • Misses: SMR (1.71), BHF (0.48), ASTH (0.46), FOXF (0.32), WYNN (0.29), OLED (0.29), CENX (0.26), NTRA (0.25), OUT (0.22), SG (0.15), USAR (0.15), CRNX (0.14), ABNB (0.10), XYZ (0.10), CPK (0.09), TTWO (0.09), LNT (0.07), BBDC (0.05), EVH (0.05), CC (0.05), EVCM (0.04), OPEN (0.04), DIOD (0.03), PBA (0.03), TXRH (0.03), ZD (0.03), RUN (0.02), EXPI (0.02), INDI (0.01), AVPT (0.01), KRMN (0.01)
  • Flat: AAOI, RXT, GSAT, VTEX, FLO, BL

Capital Raises: 

  • IPOs For The Week: BGIN, DTDT, ELCG, MKTR, MMTX, NPT, POAS
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • NDRA: Form S-3.. Up to 2,677,680 Shares of Common Stock.
    • SHC – Secondary Offering of Common Stock.
    • TWO: Form S-3ASR.. 765,236 Shares.
    • WXM – Closing of $3.44 Million Follow-on Public Offering.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
    • GAIN – Prices Offering of 6.875% Notes due 2028.
    • TRGP – Prices $1.75 Billion Offering of Senior Notes.
  • Convertibles Filed: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Private Placements:
    • THAR – Closes $545 Million Private Placement to Establish Canton Coin Treasury Strategy.
    • ACHR enters into securities purchase agreement with certain institutional investors; agrees to sell 81,250,000 shares at a price of $8.00 per share for $650 million gross proceeds.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ALT: Form S-3.. $400,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • CF: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
    • OKUR: Form S-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.

News After The Close: 

  • Joby Aviation (JOBY) has signed a letter of intent to sell electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft and services valued at up to $250 million to Alatau Advance Air Group.
  • Archer Aviation (ACHR) to acquire Los Angeles Airport as strategic air taxi network hub and AI test bed.
  • CBO hacked by a foreign actor. (The Washington Post)
  • Tesla (TSLA) shareholders approve CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package.
  • Tesla may discuss AI chip production with Intel (INTC).
  • Judge orders release of all SNAP funds by tomorrow.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News: 

  • SGHT announces the appointment of Alison Bauerlein as its Chief Operating Officer and James Rodberg as its Chief Financial Officer, effective November 5, 2025.
  • INDI promotes Naixi Wu to CFO, effective immediately.
  • BBDC announces that its Board of Directors has appointed Thomas Q. McDonnell as Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1, 2026.
  • NOC announces that its board of directors has elected John Greene corporate vice president and chief financial officer, effective Jan. 7, 2026.

Buybacks:

  • DKNG increases share repurchase program to $2 billion from $1 billion.
  • TMO has authorized the repurchase of $5 bln of shares of its common stock in the open market or in negotiated transactions. 

Dividends Announcements or News: 

  • Stocks Ex Div Today of note: PFE PH HWM AMX NSC F PAYX FE CMS JBHT SSB LAN PNFP MAIN BFH DAN HTH DEA of note.
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: None of note.
  • UVE declares a special cash dividend of $0.13 per share
  • CHRW increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.63 per share from $0.62 per share
  • HUN decreases quarterly cash dividend to $0.0875 per share from $0.25 per share
  • SNA  increases quarterly cash dividend 14% $2.44 per share from $2.14 per share 

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:15 a.m. EST)

  • Futures S&P 500 -16  NASDAQ 100 -81 Dow Jones -106  Europe is lower and Asia is lower. Bond yield is at 4.097% from 4.138% on the 10-Year, unchanged. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $99,745 from $102,845 lower by -1.20% which is $-1285.

 

Sector Action: 
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy and Healthcare were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: All others were lower, led by Consumer Cyclical, Technology and Industrials.
  • One Month Winners:  Healthcare Services, Utilities, Technology, Industrials, Materials and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Materials, Utilities and Healthcare of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials and Consumer Cyclicals of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Financials, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Materials, Technology, Financials, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: 

  • Monday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning: 

  • Beats: DK +6.96, CLMT +3.96, FLR +0.23, KKR +0.11, ENB +0.09, DUK +0.06, WEN+0.04, AQN +0.03
  • Misses: AMCX -0.11, CEG -0.07, CNH -0.05, TU -0.02, AIRS -0.02
  • Flat: BIP
  • Still to Report: AXL CNDT DV BEN KOP SHO TDS 

Company Earnings Guidance: 

  • Positive Guidance: This Morning – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: This Morning – None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%): 

  • GapUp:GMED +31.2%, ORGO +29.6%, FROG +29.6%, FIGS +19.3%, TNDM +17.9%, EXPE +15.8%, GCT +15.4%, PCT +15.2%, ABL +14.2%, ICUI +14.1%, TXG +13.8%, XPOF +13.7%, LASR +13.3%, KRUS +12.4%, QNST +11.8%, WLDN +11%, EVH +10.5%, AFRM +10.2%, FLR +10%, FLR +10%, GRND +9.3%, FNKO +9.3%, INOD +8.9%, G +8.8%, AMPX +8.3%, PAR +8.2%, EXPI +8.1%, PTON +7.3%, AMN +7%, OS +6.9%, CE +6.6%, AKAM +6.4%, NRDS +6.4%, IBEX +6.4%, RBA +6.3%, BILL +6%, PGNY +5.6%, CARL +5.5%, KODK +5.3%, HCI +5.1%, MODG +4.6%, AHR +4.3%, NKTR +4.3%, SNDK +4.3%, ABNB +4.2%, PLMR +4.1%, TCX +4%, ORIC +3.9%, HUN +3.8%, CENX +3.6%, AKBA +3.5%, ZD +3.5%, RRR +3.4%, NTRA +3.4%, SOLV +3.3%, MWA +3.3%, AORT +3.2%, CON +3.2%, FIVN +3.1%, CIVI +3%, FLO +3%, GSAT +2.9%, TTD +2.8%, MNST +2.8%, NNI +2.5%, GEN +2.4%, DIOD +2.3%, BEN +2.2%, VCTR +2.1%, CPK +2%, of note.
  • GapDown: ELDN -51.2%, TMCI -36.9%, NTLA -28.6%, FOXF -26.2%, EVCM -24%, OPEN -22.9%, PSIX -22.5%, SG -16.8%, CLPT -15.4%, OLED -15%, AAOI -14.9%, KRMN -14.6%, XYZ -14.4%, ASLE -14.3%, ACHR -12.2%, CDXS -10.6%, KRO -10.6%, SGHT -10%, LION -9.7%, USAR -9.6%, DKNG -9.2%, RXT -8.9%, MRVI -8.7%, BHST -8.6%, GAU -8.1%, MP -7.8%, DOCS -7.2%, STNE -6.9%, RUN -6.8%, WSC -6.6%, OUT -6.4%, VERI -6.3%, SMR -5.9%, GTN -5.2%, ZYME -5.1%, GRNT -5%, TTWO -4.9%, HASI -4.7%, ASTH -4.6%, SOUN -4.4%, GPRO -4.1%, IREN -4.1%, CRNX -4%, AMRK -4%, BL -3.9%, DNN -3.9%, CC -3.8%, RLAY -3.5%, ARLO -3.3%, INDI -3.2%, MCHP -3.1%, VOYG -3%, LMAT -3%, IONQ -2.9%, YELP -2.8%, PCRX -2.8%, AVPT -2.3%, SHC -2.2%, TRUP -2%of note.

Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list. No unusual new names.

Insider Action: NCLH sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling.  TAP sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. 

  • Bloomberg Lead Story: U.S. Airlines cut flights, more to come. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Market Wrap: Stocks fall as burst of dip buying fades quickly . (Bloomberg)
  • AI Showdown between U.S. and China (Bloomberg)

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical: 

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today – 3 :
    • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams spoke at 3:00 a.m. EST.
    • Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson spoke at 7:00 a.m. EST.
    • Federal Reserve Governor Stephan Miran speaks at 3:00 p.m. EST.
  • President Trump has a lunch meeting with the Prime Minister of Hungary and then heads to Palm Beach at 3:30 p.m. EST.
  • Economic Releases:
    • Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is due out at 1:00 p.m. EST.
    • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 

Meeting & Conferences of Note: 

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • TD Cowen EEI Conference
    • UBS Global Healthcare Conf
  • Top Analyst, Investor: ELDN, IONS, PCG
  • Shareholder Meetings: None of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • AHA – American Heart Association Scientific Sessions
    • CELAC-EU Summit
    • EEI Financial Conference
    • Liver Meeting
    • ObesityWeek
    • SEMA
    • SITC – Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer Conference
    • American Heart Association (Nov. 3-11)

Upgrades & Downgrades: 

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

    • Upgrades: AUPH BIDU GMED (2) HST PENN SAH  of note.
    • Downgrades: NTLA TMCI (2)  of note.