CAPIS Morning Note – 11/05/24: Election Day. Make Sure Vote!!

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday lower by -0.28% at 5712.69 from Friday higher by 0.40% at 5728.80. The overnight high was hit at 5758.25 at 6:45 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5735 at 8:35 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 23 points. The current price is 5768.50 at 7:15 a.m. […]

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday lower by -0.28% at 5712.69 from Friday higher by 0.40% at 5728.80.  The overnight high was hit at 5758.25 at 6:45 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5735 at 8:35 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 23 points. The current price is 5768.50 at 7:15 a.m. EDT higher by +10.50 points higher by +0.18%.

Executive Summary: Election day is here! Make sure to vote if you have not already. Results? That is is the $64,000 question.

Article of Note: “Politicians Are Not What Makes America Great” by Walter Russell Mead (WSJ Opinion)

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic releases of note today include ISM Services Index and API Crude Oil Data.
  • At 1:00 p.m. EDT, the Treasury holds a  10 -Year Note Auction.

Earnings Out After The Close 

  • Beats: SLF +0.62, INSP +0.54, VRTX +0.30, ILMN +0.26, CRUS +0.23, HIMS +0.22, GT +0.15, AIG +0.13, TDC +0.13, MTG +0.11, VOYA +0.11, SANM  +0.07, SLAB +0.07, VMEO +0.04, AVB +0.02, NXPI +0.02, FN +0.01, PLTR +0.01, VNO +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
Capital Raises:
  • IPOs For The Week: ADUR, ALEH, CASK, CGTL, HIT, JUNS, LEC, MSW, PHH, WYHG
    MSW, PHH, WYHG
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • ARBE – Closing of up to $49 Million Public Offering
    • INAB: FORM S-3 – 55,494,910 Shares of Common Stock
  • Notes Priced:
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • FLL files $500 mln mixed shelf securities offering 
  • PIPE: 
  • Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
    • APLD Closing of $450 Million of Convertible Notes Offering

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down Last Week:

  • Movers Up: QNST +25.2%, ALAB +23.9%,  VMEO +15%, PLTR +12.1%, EVER +9.4%, INTA +7.5%, BOWL +7.3%, ICHR +7%, DLTR +6.8%, HIMS +6.4%, CLW +5.7%, EGHT +5.6%, PRIM +5.6%, ADUS +5%, ANDE +4.8%, WOW +3.7%, CVAC +3.7%,  PRAA +3.6%, INSP +3.2%, HHH +3%,  SNDX +3%, HPK +3%, BWXT +2.7% , BFAM +2.7%, CRBG +2.6%, CSTL +2.6%, SUPN +2.3%, SLF +2.3%, GT +2.1%, MTG +2% of note. 
  • Movers DownMQ -29.9%, JELD -22.2%, NVTS -14.2%, CE -14%, ATUS -12%, LSCC -11.5%, CRUS -9.2%, TDC -7.9%, GKOS -7.8%, SLAB -6.4%, TEM -6.1%, CLF -5.5%, NXPI -5.5%, ABCL -5.5%, AOSL -5.3%, ST -4.9%, RRX -4.5%, FWRD -3.6%, AZPN -3.6%,  BWIN -3.6%, WYNN -3.4%, OGS -2.8%, WTRG -2.6%, FANG -2.5%, ILMN -2.3%, VOYA -2.2%, HOLX -2.1%, of note.

News After The Close:

  • NASDAQ (NDAQ) volume levels announced for October. (Press Release)
  • Bytedance’s (SOCL) first-half revs grow 35% yr/yr, a slight slowdown from the year-ago period. (The Information)
  • Xiao-I Corporation (AIXI) provides update on Shanghai Xiao-I’s patent infringement lawsuit against Apple (AAPL). (Press Release)
  • 10-K Delays
  • Barron’s: It’s Election Day: The Economy, Markets Are at Stake. (Barron’s)

Buybacks or Repurchases

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • Berry Global (BERY) announces the successful completion of the merger between Berry’s Health, Hygiene and Specialties Global Nonwovens and Films business and Glatfelter Corporation, resulting in the creation of Magnera Corporation (MAGN).
  • CVAC appoints Axel Sven Malkomes as Chief Financial Officer, effective November 11, 2024.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: MET STZ LVS SIRI IDA HCC FBK BANR NTB SRCE LPG WTTR SPH BY TRS AMAL SHEN ORRF
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: SCCO BRO EQT WFRD NEP AROC  VSEC GBX WT UVSP WFWA

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 + NASDAQ + Dow Jones + Russell 2000 + (at 8:25 a.m. EDT). Asia is higher ex Australia while Europe is higher ex the FTSE. VIX Futures are at 18.59 from 19.21 yesterday while Bonds are at 4.327% from 4.285% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. Gold, Silver and Copper higher for a third trading day in a row. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the YenBitcoin is at $68,821 from $68,921  higher by +1336 at 2.00% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Real Estate, Materials and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Utilities, Financials and Healthcare of note.
  • One Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Technology and Consumer Cyclicals of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Technology, Financials, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Utilities,  Real Estate, Financials and Communication Services  of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Financials, Utilities, Communication Services and Industrials note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Utilities, Financials, Industrials and Communication Services of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close:

  • Wednesday Before The Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • BeatsCMI +1.04, MPC +0.87, INGR +0.45, LPX +0.33, DD +0.15, BLDR +0.11, GFS +0.08, HSIC +0.05, TRI +0.03, EMR +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: AGCO -0.40, CTLR -0.18, RACE -0.10, YUM -0.04, QSR -0.02, SHC -0.01 of note.
  • Still to Report:

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance:   INGR PAYO of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance:   AGCO AHCO BRKR BLDR NPO NOVT of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line has moved to new recent lows.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: QNST +29.7%, ALAB +24.2%, SQNS +16.1%, VMEO +15.8%, BOWL +15.6%, PLTR +13%, EVER +10.9%, SBSW +8.8%, HIMS +8.3%, ICHR +7.7%, INTA +7.3%, SLF +6.9%, SUPN +6.6%, LPX +6.5%, PRAA +6%, CLW +5.9%, LBPH +5.1%, VVX +5%, BERY +4.7%, CSTL +4%, DLTR +3.8%, SNBR +3.8%, WOW +3.8%, ACDC +3.8%, SNDX +3.7%, PRMW +3.5%, HHH +3.5%, FTS +3.4%, BTBT +3.3%, HPK +3%, DD +2.7%, PRIM +2.6%, VRTX +2.4%, BWXT +2.2%, PARR +2.1%, CIFR +2%, MTG +2%
  • Gap Down: MQ -39.7%, JELD -22.2%, NVTS -18%, LSCC -17.3%, CE-15.8%, ATUS -11.6%, SLAB -10.8%, CRUS -10.5%, GKOS -8.7%, MAX -8%, CLF -6.8%, ADM -6.4%, NXPI -5.3%, AZPN -5.3%, RYTM -5%, ST -5%, ABCL -4.8%, AOSL -4.8%, FWRD -4.3%, TDC -4.1%, TEM -3.4%, RRX -3.1%, WYNN -2.8%, WTRG -2.4%, FANG -2.3%, BWIN -2.2%, EGHT -2.2%, SAVE -2.1%, BCC -2.1%, METC -2.1%,

Insider ActionCCO sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.   TTSH sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Pre-Market Movers: DJT HIMS PLTR. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: US Voting Day is Here. (Bloomberg)
  • Markets Wrap: Stocks rise as Wall Street waits on US election. (Bloomberg)
  • Boeing (BA) Machinists approve the latest deal, 59% approval. (CNBC)
  • Nintendo sees profit drop 69%. Switch console has played itself out. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg: Big Take – Inside efforts to keep U.S. election safe. (Podcast)
  • Marketplace: Misinformation to guard against on election day. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: Election Chaos? (Podcast)
  • NY Times The Daily: Guide to Election Night. (Podcast)

Economic:

  • October ISM Services PMI is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 53.50 from 54.90.
  • Weekly API Crude Oil Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers are in a blackout period due to FOMC meeting until Thursday.
  • President Biden receives the Daily Briefing at 1:30 p.m. EDT
  • A quiet day ahead as it is all about voting.
  • Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances.

M&A Activity and News:

Moving Averages On Major Equity Indexes: Moves from 40% positive to 37%. Other asset classes are struggling.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

    • Sellside Conferences:
      • Goldman Sachs APAC Healthcare Corporate Day
    • Fireside Chat: None of note.
    • Top Shareholder Meetings: LRCX, LTRX, MTRX, RLYB, SRRK
    • Top Analyst, Investor Meetings:
    • Update: None of note.
    • R&D Day: None of note.
    • FDA Presentation:
    • Company Event: None of note.
    • Industry Meetings or Events:
      • Gabelli Funds Automotive Symposium
      • Obesity Week

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: MDU MTZ IDA CVX ALKS 

Downgrades:  AFFLY