CAPIS Morning Note – 11/04/24: Big Week Ahead With 2024 Election & FOMC Meeting Along With Earnings

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.40% at 5728.80 from Thursday lower by -1.86% at 5705.45. The overnight high was hit at 5774.50 at 1:45 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5740 at 6:00 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 34 points. The current price is 5768.50 at 7:15 a.m. […]

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.40% at 5728.80 from Thursday lower by -1.86% at 5705.45. The overnight high was hit at 5774.50 at 1:45 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5740 at 6:00 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 34 points. The current price is 5768.50 at 7:15 a.m. EDT higher by +10.50 points higher by +0.18%.

Executive Summary: A quiet week ahead for economic releases and earnings continues to roll in. The big event for the week is the 2024 election and the FOMC meeting two day’s later.

Article of Note: “Two Things We Need From The Federal Reserve Right Now” by Mohamed A. E-Erian. (Bloomberg Opinion)

Key Events of Note Today:

Economic releases of note today include Factory Orders.
At 1:00 p.m. EDT the Treasury holds a 3-Year Note Auction.

Earnings Out After The Close

Beats: None of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

IPOs For The Week: ADUR, CASK, CUPR, FBGL, GELS, JUNS, LUD
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
IPOs Filed/Priced:
Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- ELS files for $700 mln common stock offering
- EVTV: Form S-1.. 13,609,145 Shares of Common Stock
- NB Commencement of Proposed Underwritten Public Offering of Common Shares & Warrants
- ONCO: Form S-1.. 6,250,000 Shares of Common Stock
- ONCO: Form S-1.. 10,586,556 Shares of Common Stock
- XXII: Form S-3.. Up to 28,354,914 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Pre-Funded
  Warrants Up to 65,264,802 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Warrants
Notes Priced:
Direct Offering:
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:
- SKYX files for 10,101,256 share common stock offering by selling shareholders
- TWI files for 11,921,766 share common stock offering by selling shareholders
Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- CTRA files mixed shelf securities offering
- ITT files mixed securities shelf offering
- BNTC files for $125 mln mixed securities shelf offering
- RDZN: Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed shelf offering

PIPE: NVVE Private Placement of Senior Convertible Notes and Warrants
Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down Last Week:

Movers Up: MDGL (314.97 +49.51%), RVNC (5.8 +23.3%), EXEL (34.19 +22.66%), MD (15.16 +22.12%), NGVT (41.95 +24.67%), PRLB (37.92 +41.97%), TILE (23.26 +28.65%), QUAD (6.41 +25.34%), VFC (21.06 +25.85%), GRMN (198.1 +22.06%), PAYC (210.58 +27.91%), UIS (7.15 +26.55%) of note.
Movers Down: ANAB (21.79 -31.97%), SAGE (5.93 -25.97%), HII (188.48 -25.75%), JBLU (5.75 -19.99%), SRI (6.92 -24.12%), DAN (7.94 -21.7%), BOOT (125.57 -20.53%), CROX (106.4 -20.45%), QRVO (72.19 -27.09%), HLIT (10.94 -26.01%), HMST (9.21 -34.59%), CVI (15.99 -32.67%), Consumer Staples: EL (66.81 -23.43%), MGPI (46.21 -19.45%)
of note.

News After The Close:

Avista (AVA) files a request with the Public Utility Commission of Oregon to increase natural gas base rates effective September 1, 2025
Oil-Dri (ODC) to implement price increases on its industrial, automotive, and sports field products, effective today
Chubb (CB) announces Q4 losses attributable to Hurricane Milton are estimated to be $250-300 mln pre-tax and $208-250 mln after-tax
Nvidia (NVDA) and Sherwin Williams (SHW) to replace Intel (INTC) and Dow Chemical (DOW) respectively in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday, November 11th.
Chewy (CHWY) to replace Stericycle (SRCL) in the S&P 400 effective Wednesday, November 6th as SRCL it is being bought by Waste Management (WM).
Credit Firm upgrades Turkey and Qatar to BB- and AA/A-1+.
10-K Delays KZIA.
Barron’s: . (Barron’s)

Buybacks or Repurchases:

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

FULT appoints Richard Kraemer as CFO, replacing interim CFO Betsy Chivinski, who is retiring at the end of the year.

Dividends Announcements or News:

Stocks Ex Div Today: ETN KKR C AMP BKR VMC CQP SYF DOC EWBC OHI PNW MUSA MC BCO AB FINN FIBK SXT PPBI SJW MSDL WABC PEBO OCFC HSTM CAPL HAFC HBT
Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: MET STZ LVS SIRI IDA HCC FBK BANR NTB SRCE LPG WTTR SPH BY TRS AMAL SHEN ORRF

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 + NASDAQ + Dow Jones + Russell 2000 + (at 8:25 a.m. EDT). Asia is lower ex Australia while Europe is higher ex Germany. VIX Futures are at 19.21 from 19.43 yesterday while Bonds are at 4.285% from 4.291% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper higher for a second trading day in a row. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $68,921 from $69,952 higher by +65 at 0.13% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):

Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclicals, Healthcare, Technology and Industrials of note.
Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities, Real Estate and Energy of note.
One Month Winners: ~~Utilities~~, Financials, Communication Services, Technology, ~~Materials~~, and Consumer Cyclicals ~~Industrials~~ of note.
Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Technology, Financials, Communication Services ~~Utilities~~, ~~Real Estate~~, ~~Materials~~, ~~Industrials~~ and ~~Consumer Defensive~~ of note.
Six Month Winners: Technology, Utilities, Real Estate, Financials and Communication Services ~~Consumer Cyclicals~~ of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Financials, Utilities, Communication Services and Industrials note.
Year to Date Winners: Technology, Utilities, Financials, Industrials and Communication Services of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Monday After the Close: None of note.

Tuesday Before The Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

Beats: BNTX +2.34, FOXA +0.32, CHH +0.31, ZTS +0.12, FIS +0.11, YUMC +0.11, CEG +0.08, NYT +0.04, PEG +0.03, CNA +0.01 of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: AMG -0.02, MAR -0.05, BN -0.46 of note.
Still to Report:

Company Earnings Guidance:

Positive Guidance: FRPT ZTS CHH of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: FTDR ENTG MAR of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line has moved to new recent lows.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2% or down more than -2%):

Gap Up: MNKD +9.3%, YUMC +8.7%, CC +5.3%, CHWY +5.2%, SHW +5%, VRNA +4.3%, TYRA +4%, SVM +3.3%, OKUR +2.5%, BORR +2.5%, KOS +2.2%, NVDA +2.1%

Gap Down: TLN -13.2%, ENTG -8.5%, SKYX -6.5%, ALTI -3.1%, INTC -2.5%, LLY -2.2%, XEL -2.1%

Insider Action: BWFG sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. None of note that see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

Pre-Market Movers: Check back for the early movers as not posted yet. (CNBC)
5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
Latest CNN Headlines. (CNN)
Bloomberg Lead Story: Harris Trump Hit Battleground States. (Bloomberg)
Markets Wrap: US Dollar drops as some polls shift to Harris. (Bloomberg)
LVMH’s empty Chinese megastore signals deepening luxury crash. (Bloomberg)
One more day to elections. (CNBC)
Bloomberg: Big Take – The world prepares for the next US president. (Podcast)
Bloomberg: Odd Lots – Ezra Klein on the legacy of Bidenomics. (Podcast)
Marketplace: Internet freedom takes a hit during global elections. (Podcast)
Wealthion: Hyperinflation warning. (Podcast)
NY Times The Daily: Ad spending for 2024 election to hit $3.5 billion. (Podcast)

Economic:

September Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to drop to -0.04% from -0.02%.

Geopolitical:

Federal Reserve Speakers are in a blackout period due to FOMC meeting until Thursday.

President Biden receives the Daily Briefing at 1:15 p.m. EDT after returning to the White House from Delaware.
The president holds a call with Homeland Security and others to thank them for recent successful counterterrorism operations against ISIS activities in Syria and Iraq at 3:15 p.m. EDT.

Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances.

M&A Activity and News:

Moving Averages On Major Equity Indexes: Moves from 33% positive to 40%.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

- Sellside Conferences:

- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- Top Shareholder Meetings: PEGY, SGD, SHIP, SRRK
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: DERM
- Update: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
  - DERM: PDUFA Date for DFD-29
- Company Event: None of note.
- Industry Meetings or Events:
  - BIO-Europe
  - Gabelli Funds Automotive Symposium
  - Spartan Capital Investor Conference
  - Obesity Week

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: ABBV NCLH WTS VERX PTON CHTR BNS

Downgrades: STM NNN