Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: Today is a limited version due to travel. Thursday and Friday will be normal production.
- The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.51% at 7541.40 from Friday lower by -1.82% at 7580.77.
- The S&P 500 sees support now at 7500 from 7700. Resistance is now at 7600 from 7800. In the last six months, support has moved from 6300 to 7500.
- The QQQ (Nasdaq-100 Index ETF) sees support now at 680 from 690. Resistance is now at 690 from 700 as the QQQ closed lower at 681.09 from 690.49.
- Bond Market is at 4.931% from 4.913%.
Executive Summary:
- Bond Market have recovered yields from recent highs and closed the week at 4.933% from 4.999%. This is a big deal now back to 4.75% in the next few weeks?
- Stocks moved into a three week losing streak with the S&P 500 falling last week, ended 10/30 by -0.57%.
- U.S. moves into Week 38 of its attack on Iran, eight months.
- The S&P 500 lost -1% on four days last month. We are clustering on the downside, which is not good BUT we start a new month this week? Will it end??
Key Geopolitical Events of Note
-
Economic news of note.
- Weekly – API Petroleum Institute of note.
- Monthly- Factory Orders and JOLTS of note.
-
President Trump’s schedule:
- Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
- Meets with the U.S. Ambassador to the Portuguese Republic at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in Signing Time at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in an Election Night Reception at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
- Fed and Other Speakers of Note: None of note.
Capital Raises Announced After The Close:
- IPO Filings & News: None of note.
- Notes Files:
- AIR – prices offering of $955 million of 7.125% senior notes due 2031 and $960 million of 7.375% senior notes due 2034.
- BX – Completes Senior Notes Offering.
- ORCL – Pricing of $20 Billion of Common Stock and Senior Notes.
- SAIC – Pricing of Upsized Offering of $500 Million in Senior Notes.
- WAB – Pricing of Senior Notes Offering.
- H – Pricing of Public Offering of Senior Notes.
- MAA – Pricing of Senior Unsecured Notes Offering.
-
Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
- SAIC – Pricing of Upsized Offering of $500 Million in Senior Notes.
- ORCL – Pricing of $20 Billion of Common Stock and Senior Notes.
- Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
- XEL – Pricing of Upsized Offering of $2,200,000,000 of 2.625% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027.
- Private Placement: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders: None of note.
-
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- ENVX files for $500 million mixed securities shelf offering.
- WMB files for mixed securities shelf offering.
- CERS: Form S-3.. $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- NAVI: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
- VVX: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
- WMB: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
After The Close:
-
Earnings After The Close:
- Beat: OTTR $3.25 | IBTA: $0.70 | ROKU: $0.67 | CLX: $0.48 | BMRN: $0.31 | JAZZ: $0.17 | FN: $0.15 |of note.
- Missed: BCC -0.08| VRTX -0.06| CC -0.06| HUN -0.03| of note.
- Inline: None of note.
-
Dividend Ex Update:
- Tuesday: SCCO: $1.30 | MET: $0.59 | STRC: $0.04 | CQP: $0.78 | AROC: $0.23 | INDV: $8.13 | FIBK: $0.47 | SRCE: $0.45 | BY: $0.14 | AMAL: $0.17 | CCEC: $0.15 | SPH: $0.35
- Wednesday: STRC: $0.03 | EQT: $0.17 | BRO: $0.18 | MUSA: $0.72 | HFWA: $0.25 | MCBS: $0.31
-
News Of Note:
- Transocean (RIG) fleet update adds about $2 bln of incremental backlog; total backlog rises to about $8 bln.
- Apple (AAPL) beats but nothing exceptional.
-
Biggest Movers Up & Down Last Week
- Pops: HLIT +16.5%, AEHR +15.3%, IBTA +13.0%, FN +11.8%, LIFE +10.4%, AEIS +9.6%, LSCC +7.2%
- Drops: CWH -11.0%, BMRN -5.1%, PPLI -4.8%, WAY -4.3%, PLTR -3.6%, AAPL -3.3%, BWXT -3.2%
-
Buybacks:
- FN Board authorizes $103.0 million buyback program.
- JAZZ board authorizes new $500 million share repurchase program.
- UPWK CFO Erica Gessert to step down Jan. 1; Chief Business Officer Peter Sanborn named successor.
-
Executive Changes:
- ULCC names Michael Delehant COO; promotes James Fenner to chief revenue officer.
- KEYS names Jason Kary CFO, effective Dec. 18.
What’s Happening This Morning:
Futures S&P 500 -11, NASDAQ +78 and Dow Jones -403. Europe is lower while Asia mixed. Bond yield is at 4.937% from 4.925% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $76,980 from $77,827
Sector Action: 10 sectors higher and 8 lower.
- One-Month Winners: Technology, Utilities, Consumer Cyclical, Consumer Defensive and Communication Services of note.
- Three-Month Winners: Energy, Technology, Materials, Healthcare and Communication Services of note.
- Six-Month Winners: Technology, Energy, Financials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
- Twelve-Month Winners: Energy, Technology, Materials, Industrials, Financials and Communication Services of note.
- Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, Technology, Materials, Industrials, Financials and Healthcare of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Tuesday After the Close:
- Wednesday Before the Open:
Insider Activity: BANC HDSN ROL ENPH see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: JBLU of note. With the Government closed yesterday, there were no filings.
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beat: MDGL +2.76, MPC +1.56, BNTX +1.09, CVI +1.09, IT +0.75, LDOS +0.59, LGIH +0.33, HLNE +0.33, VSNT +0.33, RRX +0.25, NPO +0.24, CMCO +0.23, DD +0.22, HSIC +0.20, LPX +0.19, BR +0.19, ALKS +0.17, ADM +0.17, ETN +0.14, TEVA +0.14, DOCN +0.13, PFE +0.13, UPST +0.12, AME +0.10, RYTM +0.10, WAT +0.10, XMTR +0.09, APTV +0.09, BETA +0.08, RVTY +0.08, ZBRA +0.06, ARVN +0.06, CNK +0.06, YUM +0.06, DT +0.05, XHR +0.05, KDP +0.04, FWRG +0.04, YUMC +0.03, BALL +0.03, FISV +0.03, CLVT +0.03, SHOP +0.02, MPLX +0.02, PJT +0.02, SHC +0.02, GPK +0.01, ULS +0.01, ADT +0.01 of note.
- Missed: AHCO (1.08), RACE (0.24), MZTI (0.23), KNF (0.15), BEAM (0.13), XPRO (0.08), IDYA (0.04), APO (0.04), VITL (0.04), TRI (0.02) of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Still to Report: AROC, ET, EXPD, FIS, HNI, IPGP, PNW, SRAD, SUN, SYY of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: None of note
- Mixed: None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.
Advance/Decline Line Chart: Still trying to find a meaningful bottom.
Economic & Geopolitical
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: Blackout period over.
- Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks at 11:15 a.m. EDT.
-
President Trump’s Schedule: (see above)
-
Economic Data Due Out
-
Weekly –
- API Petroleum Institute Data due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
-
Monthly
- September Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 1.00% from 0.10%.
- September JOLTS is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 7.10 million from 7.079 million.
-
M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.
Pre-Market Changes:
-
Pre-Market Gainers: HLIT +17.0%, AEHR +12.1%, LIFE +11.0%, FN +10.9%, IBTA +10.6%, BETA +9.5%, AEIS +9.3%, BMM +9.1%, LSCC +9.1%, CVGI +8.8%, NBIX +8.7%, EVER +8.5%, UPWK +7.0%, BE +6.9%, RVTY +5.5%, PHG +5.0%, MKSI +4.6%, ALSN +3.9%, PPLI +3.4%, DD +3.2%, CLX +3.1%, HLF +3.1%, NET +3.0%, ON +2.7%, INTC +2.7%, WAT +2.5%, HUN +2.5%, GFUZ +2.5%, AMD +2.4%, EQNR +2.3%, RHP +2.2%, PS +2.1%, TSEM +2.0%
-
Pre-Market Decliners: NMFC -15.0%, CWH -11.2%, PLTR -7.8%, CERS -7.6%, WAY -5.8%, CLVT -5.4%, BMRN -4.2%, YUMC -4.2%, DRUG -4.0%, AAPL -4.0%, TVTX -3.6%, INGM -3.6%, VRRM -3.0%, MNDY -2.6%, FAF -2.5%, MSA -2.5%, HSIC -2.4%, IT -2.4%, BALL -2.4%, DHI -2.0%, GRND -2.0%
Moving Averages Summary: Stocks are at 40% from 37% above their respective moving averages and Bonds are at 44% from 72%.
Rags & Mags:
- Control of Congress On The Line. (WSJ)
- Americans cast ballots across the country with control of both the House and Senate hanging in the balance, creating a critical test for President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda. Thin party margins across marquee battleground districts in the Rust Belt and Sun Belt mean even small shifts in turnout could flip leadership in either chamber, dictating the fate of corporate tax cuts, energy policy, and regulatory enforcement heading into 2027.
- Supreme Court Declines Administration Request to Intervene In California Ballot Issue. (NYT).
- The Supreme Court rejected an emergency request from the administration seeking federal intervention over California’s statewide ballot administration and counting procedures. The decision lets state-level court rulings and existing counting deadlines stand heading into Election Day, underscoring the high court’s reluctance to alter state voting frameworks in the final hours of an active election.
- Apple’s Narrowing Margins Overshadow Upbeat Holiday Forecast. (Bloomberg)
- Apple (AAPL) delivered an upbeat top-line revenue forecast for the critical December holiday quarter, but shares faced headwinds as management flagged continued margin pressure. Higher component input costs and ongoing supply chain investments are squeezing gross margins, tempering investor enthusiasm around early seasonal device demand.
- Market Wrap: US Stocks slip as Midterms keep Traders cautious. (Bloomberg)
- U.S. equities edged lower in morning trading as investors kept risk exposure limited while Election Day voting gets underway. With Capitol Hill leadership on the line and potential policy gridlock in focus, trading desks remained defensive across index futures and rate-sensitive sectors, awaiting initial exit polls and post-close counting trends.
- U.S. military carried out limited, defensive strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island. (CNN)
- The U.S. military launched targeted, defensive strikes against facilities on Iran’s Qeshm Island near the strategic Strait of Hormuz following persistent regional threats against maritime shipping lanes. Pentagon officials framed the action as a calibrated response to deter further drone and missile aggression while keeping open communication channels for broader regional diplomatic talks.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- Gabelli Funds Automotive Symposium
- Goldman Sachs South Africa
- Oppenheimer Oncology Summit
- Wainwright Global Investment Conference
- Shareholder Meetings: CYN, KALA, LRCX, LTRX, MBUU, PAHC of note.
- Top Analyst, Investor: ANNX, IFRX, IP, KMX, RXRX, SNOW of note.
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
-
Meetings:
- SEMA Show
- ServiceNow World Forum
- StoneX NAGGL Conference
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
Upgrades: AFYA ON SIRI of note.
Downgrades: DHI OFRM VRRM of note.
Prediction Market 10/30:
- Kalshi Dems sweep 68%, Dem House Republican Senate 27% Republican Sweep 7.9%, Republican House Democrat Senate 1%. I am going with Democratic House and Republican Senate pays 3.52X. It is a Tuesday result, could be later in the week.