CAPIS Morning Note – 11/02/22: Stocks Flat Into FOMC Announcement at 2:00 P.M. EDT And KaPowell at 2:30 P.M. EDT

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3856.10 (lower by -0.41%) from Monday at 3871.98 (lower by -0.75%).  The overnight high of 3881.50 was hit at 4:30 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3855.75. at 4:30 p.m. EDT, a range of 26 points high to low which is below the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3856.10 (lower by -0.41%) from Monday at 3871.98 (lower by -0.75%).  The overnight high of 3881.50 was hit at 4:30 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3855.75. at 4:30 p.m. EDT, a range of 26 points high to low which is below the recent range of 45.  At 7:15 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was lower by -0.75 points at 364.75 which is -0.03%.  

Fun Fact: The day of the announcement by the FOMC sees stocks higher 67% of the time this year, with the day after up 33% of the time and day two up 50% of the time. Good luck!!

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: VOYA +1.22, CHGG +1.09, DVN +0.75, AEIS +0.73, SKY +0.63, PSA +0.62, SMCI +0.60, CHK +0.58, CRUS +0.55, LFUS +0.49, CACC +0.43, ABNB +0.29, KAI +0.25, BAND +0.24, INSP +0.19, YUMC +0.19, IRTC +0.18, SCI +0.17, MGY +0.16, CLX +0.15, AIG +0.14, OSPN +0.14, ANDE +0.13, EXEL +0.12, FMC +0.12, PRO +0.11, PRU +0.11, HRB +0.10, UNM +0.10, PAYC +0.09, BLKB +0.09, NMIH +0.09, CZR +0.08, SNCY +0.08, UNVR +0.08, EA +0.07, AMK +0.06, THG +0.05, MDLZ +0.05, AYX +0.05, FRSH +0.04, INST +0.04, ZI +0.04, MRCY +0.03, ET +0.03, BFAM +0.02, EXR +0.02, HURN +0.02, OI +0.02, LTHM +0.02, APAM +0.01, AIZ +0.01, CRK +0.01, OKE +0.01, CNDT +0.01.
  • Flat: BRX +0.00, CRSP +0.00, EIX +0.00, FCPT +0.00, PEAK +0.00, VRAY +0.00, WU +0.00.
  • Misses: MSTR (1.98), RNR (1.75), ZETA (0.53), SIMO (0.45), CAKE (0.33), CWH (0.31), PUMP (0.24), FRPT (0.19), REZI (0.18), MTCH (0.15), AMRC (0.15), SPNE (0.10), KAR (0.08), ATCO (0.06), CDLX (0.05), JRVR (0.04), MCK (0.03), BTG (0.03), MIR (0.03), AMD (0.03), DENN (0.02), TSLX (0.02), ATRC (0.01), VRSK (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • OmniAb (OABI) completes the expected tax-free spin-off from Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND) and the subsequent business combination with Avista Public Acquisition Corp. II (AHPA) to become an independent publicly traded company.
    • Peak Bio (PKBO) completes business combination with Ignyte Acquisition Corp. (IGNY); to begin trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market today under ticker “PKBO”.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • GNLN: Announces Closing of $7.5 Million Public Offering.
    • MBLY: Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AURA: Filed Form S-3.. $250 Million Mixed Security Shelf.
    • PAG: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • PYXS: Filed Form S-3.. $250 Million Mixed Security Shelf.
    • TRDA: Filed Form S-3.. $400 Million Mixed Security Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • CCL: Closing of Convertible Notes Exchange, Extending Maturity of $87 Million of Convertible Notes at Existing 5.75% Rate.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: BNFT +47%, ARCT +28%, BAND +19%, CHGG +18%, MTCH +17%, QUAD +13%, OSPN +13%, SMCI +8%, SCI +8%, DD +6%, FRSH +6%, CRUS +5%, TRQ +5%, BMBL +5%, CZR +5%, UNVR +5%, YUMC +4%, AMD +4%, MDLZ +4%.
    • Trading Down: ROG -40%, ZI -20%, CDLX -13%, CACC -8%, BGFV -8%, IRTC -7%, ENVX -7%, FRPT -7%, ABNB -7%, CAKE -6%, CNDT -6.3%, CWH -5.7%, ANDE -5%, SKY -5%, VRAY -4%, SPNE -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: ABNB, AMD, MTCH, INTU (CNBC)
    • Big ad firms prep backup plans for Twitter amid Elon Musk drama — with one calling for ‘pause’ (NYPost)
    • ABNB CEO @bchesky: “We’ve seen a recovery in urban and cross-border travel two of our strongest segments before the pandemic. And just like during the great recession in 2008, when everybody started people today are especially interested in earning extra income through hosting.“
    • AMD CEO: “Looking at our broader data center portfolio as expected datacenter GPU sales were down significantly from a year ago when we had substantial shipments supporting the build-out of the frontier extra scale supercomputer.”
    • UBER CEO Sees Ridership Getting Back to Pre-Pandemic Levels.
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) awarded $581 million U.S. Navy contract.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Ambrx Biopharma Inc. (AMAM) Appoints Daniel O’Connor as Chief Executive Officer.
    • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) Chief Customer & Technology Officer Rafeh Masood Resigns.
    • Clean Harbors (CLH) has appointed Chief Operating Officer Eric W. Gerstenberg and Chief Financial Officer Michael L. Battles as co-CEOs of the Company.
    • Coeptis Therapeutics Holdings (COEP) Expands Board of Directors with New Appointments.
    • Compugen (CGEN) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Delisting Notice.
    • 8×8 (EGHT) to Transfer Stock Listing to Nasdaq.
    • mCloud (MCLD) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Market Value of Listed Securities.
    • NN Inc (NNBR) Board has implemented a management transition plan to address CEO retirement; Board has engaged an outside search firm to look for next CEO.
    • Purple Biotech (PPBT) Appoints Lior Fhima as Chief Financial Officer.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) increases share buyback authorization by 5 million shares, bringing total authorization to 61 million shares.
    • Enact (ACT) Initiates $75 Million Share Repurchase Program. (see Dividends)
    • Silicon Labs (SLAB) board authorizes additional $50M to existing buyback program.
    • Univar Solutions (UNVR) Announces $200 Million Accelerated Share Repurchase and Additional $1 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Two Harbors Investment Corp. (TWO) Announces Completion of Reverse Stock Split..
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • A10 Networks (ATEN) approved a 20% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.06 per share.
    • CDW increases quarterly cash dividend $0.09 to $0.59 per share.
    • Comstock’s (CRK) Board approved the reinstatement of a quarterly dividend at an annual dividend rate of $0.50 per share.
    • Delek US Holdings (DK) increases its quarterly dividend 5% to $0.21 per share.
    • Enact (ACT) Declares Special Cash Dividend of $183 Million.
    • Estee Lauder (EL) increases quarterly dividend by $0.06 to $0.66 share.
    • Littelfuse (LFUS) will pay a cash dividend on its common stock of $0.60 per share.
    • Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc. (TSLX) Declares a $0.03 Per Share Increase in Fourth Quarter Base Dividend Per Share to $0.45.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +4, Dow Jones +3,  NASDAQ +26, and Russell 2000 -1. (as of 8:11 a.m. EDT). Europe is lower and Asia is higher ex Japan.  VIX Futures are at 26.10 from 27.10  yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 25.81 from 25.75 yesterday. Gold higher with Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower with Natural Gas higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.038% from 3.937% yesterday. Bitcoin is at $20,432 from $20,524 yesterday morning and is lower by  -0.08% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Basic Materials, Energy, Financial, Utilities of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Technology of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Energy, Industrials, Financials of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

Stocks rose in early trading Tuesday, lifted in part by hopes for looser Covid restrictions in China—then turned lower after new data showed that the U.S. labor market is still red-hot. That made investors worry that the Fed would cement its position of higher rates for longer. All three major U.S. indexes finished the first day of November trading lower.

Most investors have already come to terms with the idea that the Fed will almost certainly raise rates by another 0.75 percentage point on Wednesday. But they will be reading the tea leaves for clues about any future rate increases. (WSJ)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: QCOM, BKNG, NTR, MET, EQIX, FTNT, O, WCN, ALB, ALL, CTSH, CLR, SLF, CF, EBAY, MRO, IR, ANSS, ICLR, APA, PTC, MGM, ETSY, HUBS, FLT, HST, SJR, GFL, AFG, WES, EQH, SRPT, HOOD, CDAY, LSI, QRVO, LNC, PAA, CFLT, ZG, PCOR, ROKU, OHI, PDCE, LUMN, SGFY, CW, RGLD, WWE, MKSI, SIGI, PYCR, QLYS, QDEL, LHCG, RYN, ORA, VVV, RUN, WTS, SJI, NARI, WK, BKH, POWI, MTG, NSA, STAA, TWNK, ONEM, RDN, CORT, TXG, EVH, CPE, PK, MC, EPR, IIPR, KMPR, MATX, RPD, ACAD, GKOS, FROG, RIG, ATUS, NGVT, WERN, FSR, CXW, ESTE, ELF, KW, UDMY, EVGO, PLMR, ACLS, RLJ, NUS, SITM, SKT, EVOP, HTGC, RVLV, IRBT, TTMI, VSTO, HBM, HPP, CCRN, NVRO, PDM, ALGT, PTRA, VCYT, ECPG, RCII, INFN, FSLY, RGNX, RGR, RSI, RPT, VMEO, SRI, FARO, ONL, NUVB, TPC, BCOV, YELL of note.
  • Thursday Before the Open: COP, CI, REGN, ZTS, CNQ, APD, ICE, MAR, FIS, LNG, SRE, BCE, EXC, PH, CMI, ABC, DDOG, CQP, GOLD, K, PWR, EPAM, QSR, BGNE, BALL, IRM, RCL, WLK, HII, TEVA, H, BKI, STOR, BRKR, MUR, DISH, MIDD, PNW, KRTX, OGE, WCC, ARW, OGN, TX, ITT, MDU, GIL, INGR, DEN, LNTH, PENN, IDA, CROX, TPX, LANC, ITCI, ALIT, NTLA, SRCL, W, LSPD, VIRT, APG, BTU, ATHM, NSIT, AAWW, FSS, SPR, LXP, PZZA, PBH, FOCS, COMM, AIMC, CCOI, PCRX, IBP, BHC, MGPI, SHAK, NVMI, MAC, ITRI, KTB, GOGO, GPRE, UNIT, FTDR, BBIO, IRWD, DSEY, STRA, ROCK, AGIO, PTLO, MD, IDCC, GTN, CIM, HLMN, KYMR, MODV, NKLA, WOW, DCPH, HTLD, USPH, BALY, SPNS, DFH, MFA, TNK, CARS, IMOS, THRY, DLX, CSII, FLWS, TREE of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: FUN +1.95, CVE +0.68, HUM +0.61, FDP +0.44, UTHR +0.43, CLH +0.37, DIN +0.36, FYBR +0.30, HZNP +0.24, BDC +0.20, ETR +0.19, GOOS +0.17, THRM +0.17, TT +0.15, CRL +0.13, GNRC +0.11, ENOV +0.11, APO +0.10, CVS +0.10, VSH +0.09, CDW +0.08, NYT +0.08, DISH +0.07, VMC +0.07, MLM +0.06, EL +0.06, ROK +0.06, SITE +0.05, DNOW +0.05, EAT +0.04, DT +0.04, EDIT +0.04, RITM +0.03, AVNS +0.03, LIVN +0.03, ZBH +0.02, OMI +0.02, SHC +0.01, BIP +0.01, SHOO +0.01, TEL +0.01.
  • Flat: SABR +0.00, ATI +0.00, TRMB +0.00.
  • Misses: JLL (1.08), SBGI (0.64), LL (0.40), CHRW (0.39), TUP (0.28), ODP (0.24), DFIN (0.17), ENTG (0.15), MTRN (0.13), YUM (0.06), SMG (0.05), PARA (0.05), BR (0.04), EXPI (0.04), XHR (0.04), PSN (0.03), ASTE (0.03), MCRB (0.02), AVDX (0.02), ACIW (0.02), RDWR (0.01), AVNT (0.01), ALKS (0.01).
  • Still to Report: RACE , INGN , MLCO , NNN , OMCL.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: BAND, PAYC, INSP, ZI, MCK, FRSH, INST, BFAM, AYX, SMCI, AEIS, SCI, HURN, AVDX, ZBH, CRL, HZNP, ROK, SPTN, BDC of note.
  • Negative Guidance: XRAY, CVLT, MYGN, INTU, EA, LTHM, CDLX, AMD, MTCH, IRTC, EXR, CHGG, REZI, KAI, MIR, LVOX, LFUS, BGFV, EHAB, ACIW, TEL, ENTG, ENOV, DT, XHR, GOOS, MTRN, EL, TRMB, SHOO, SHC, VSH, BLCO, SBGI, INGN of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: BNFT +47%, ARCT +29%, OSPN +25%, QUAD +20%, CHGG +19%, BAND +17%, MTCH +15%, YUMC +12%, EDAP +11%, SCI +8%, SMCI +7%, CRK +7%, CZR +7%, CRUS +6%, TRQ +6%, NVO +5%, DD +5%, SPXC +5%, BRX +5%, BMBL +5%, UNVR +5%, AEIS +4%, FRSH +4%, AMD +4%, LIAN +4%, ATEN +4%, ZETA +4%, AROC +4%.
  • Gap Down: ROG -401%, ZI -20%, ENVX -10%, CAKE -7%, IRTC -7%, CDLX -7%, CNDT -6%, FRPT -6%, ABNB -6%, EHAB -6%, PRO -5%, MIR -5%, PUMP -4%, CACC -4%, CWH -4%, LTHM -4%, BGFV -4%.

Insider Action:  PCB sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: CVS, EL, GOOS, PARA, TUP, CAKE, LTHM, MTCH, MDLZ, ROG, DD, CZR (CNBC)
  • Five Things to Know This Morning. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Chinese Stocks Soar as Reopening Talks Fuels Speculative Frenzy. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Chief Justice Temporarily Stops Release of Trump Tax Returns. (Bloomberg)
  • Russia to Resume Ukraine Grain Export Deal. (Bloomberg)
  • Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu’s right wing alliance holds slight lead in Israel election. (NYT)
  • U.S. Intelligence shows that Russian military leaders discussed using a tactical nuclear weapon. (NYT)
  • President Biden offers $13 billion in aid to help lower energy bills which is basically a Mid Term stunt to turn voters. (CNBC)
  • Federal Reserve to hike again big and then open door to downshift. (Bloomberg)
  • Mortgage demand continues to fall despite rates dropping. (CNBC)
  • Bank of America Indicator closest to a buy since 2017. (Bloomberg)
  • CVS Health (CVS) raises outlook as third-quarter expectations. (CNBC)
  • CVS, WBA and WMT to pay $13.8 billion to settle opioid claims. (Reuters)
  • Tesla (TSLA) closes first showroom in China. (Reuters)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score drops 11% to 60%.  Stop the bleeding!

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President views workforce training demonstrations by labor unions and leading companies, 2:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks on working to strengthen the infrastructure talent pipeline, and will highlight how the Administration is bringing together employers, unions, and other partners to train Americans for good-paying jobs in broadband, construction, and manufacturing following passage of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, CHIPS and Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act, 2:40 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 
    • 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE ACTUAL: 7.06% VS 7.16% PREVIOUS
    • Composite: -0.5%, Purchase: -0.8%, ReFi: -0.2%
    • Applications Oct 28: -0.5% (prev -1.7%) – US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate Oct 28: 7.06% (prev 7.16%)
  • ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and expected to come in at 198,000 from 208,000.
  • Treasury Refudning Announce 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EDT
  • FOMC Announcement 2:00 p.m. EDT
  • Fed Chair Press Conf. 2:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce their latest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. EDT and then hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT where Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak then.

M&A Activity:

  • Anonos (AON) Acquires Award-Winning Synthetic Data Company Statice.
  • BNFT to be acquired by Voya Financial (VOYA) at $10.50 per share or ~$570 million.
  • DuPont (DD) Announces Termination Of Intended Rogers Acquisition. (MarketWatch)
  • Ryder System (R) has acquired Dotcom Distribution.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Berenberg US CEO Conference 
    • WIRED Impact Conference  
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Gabelli 46th Annual Automotive Aftermarket Symposium 2022 (10/31/22-11/03/22)
        • Bank of America Securities China Conference 2022 (10/31/22-11/11/22)
        • Goldman Sachs China Conference 2022 (10/31/22-11/04/22)
  • Company Meetings: BHSE, TISI.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: BA, NFE, ODP, SPTN.
  • Update:
  • R&D Day:
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Bio-Europe Conference (11/02/22-11/04/22) 
    • Festival ofBiologics2022 (11/02/22-11/04/22)
    • The Retina Society Annual Scientific Meeting (11/02/22-11/05/22) 
    • 33rd International Symposium on the Autonomic Nervous System 2022 (11/02/22-11/05/22) 
        • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
          • Association of Molecular Pathology 2022 (AMP) (11/01/22-11/05/22)
          • F3 Future of Freight Conference 2022 (11/01/22-11/03/22)
          • Northeast Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Consortium (NEALS) Annual Meeting 2022 (11/01/22-11/03/22)
          • ObesityWeek 2022 40th Annual Scientific Meeting of the Obesity Society (11/01/22-11/04/22)
          • International Congress for Ataxia Research (ICAR) 2022 (11/01/22-11/04/22)
          • America’s Physician Groups Colloquium 2022 (10/31/22-11/02/22)
          • Vascular InterVentional Advances (VIVA) Annual Conference 2022 (10/31/22-11/03/22)
          • American Conference on Pharmacometrics (ACoP) 13th Annual Meeting 2022 (10/30/22-11/02/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: