CAPIS Morning Note – 10/20/22: Stocks Have Turned Positive, U.K. Prime Minister May Be Tossed Any Minute and American Airlines Raised Q4 Guidance

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 3695.16 (lower by 0.67%) from Tuesday at 3719.98 (higher by 1.14%).  The overnight high of 3721.50 was hit at 7:05 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3677 at 9:35 p.m. EDT, a range of 44.50 points high to low which is near the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 3695.16 (lower by 0.67%) from Tuesday at 3719.98 (higher by 1.14%).  The overnight high of 3721.50 was hit at 7:05 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3677 at 9:35 p.m. EDT, a range of 44.50 points high to low which is near the recent range of 45.  At 7:20 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was up +11.75 points which is +0.32%.  

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: STLD +1.57, KALU +1.19, LRCX +0.88, LBRT +0.15, EFX +0.10, FR +0.05, CVBF +0.01, IBM +0.01, PPG +0.01, REXR +0.01, SLG +0.01, UMPQ +0.01.
  • Flat: LSTR +0.00.
  • Misses: AA (0.51), TCBI (0.28), WDFC (0.14), CCI (0.06), KNX (0.05), PACW (0.05), KMI (0.04), RLI (0.03), TSLA (0.03), LVS (0.02), CNS (0.02).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Prime Medicine (PRME:NASDAQ) prices 10.3 million share IPO at $17.00 per share..
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • DNLI prices offering. 10.4 million shares at $26.50 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • SAR: Prices Public Offering of $40.0 Million 8.00% Notes Due 2027.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes: None of note.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • MTMT: Closing of a Private Placement of $4.4 Million.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: SMCI +17%, LBRT +4%.
    • Trading Down: ALL -9%, AA -7%, WDFC -5%, KNX -5%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: TSLA, IBM, AA, LRCX, KMI (CNBC)
    • U.S. Senate panel advances bill to rein in OPEC+ over oil output cut. (Reuters)
    • Fed’s Bullard Sees 2023 Shift With End of Front-Loading Hikes in 2022. (Bloomberg)
    • Elon Musk addresses Twitter (TWTR) takeover and possible recession on Tesla (TSLA) earnings call. (CNBC)
    • Tesla’s (TSLA) Valuation Doesn’t Add Up Today, Never Mind $4.4 Trillion Tomorrow. (WSJ)
    • Alcoa’s (AA) stock drops 7% on earnings miss, lower revenue. (MarketWatch)
    • IBM surpasses quarterly projections and lifts its full-year revenue forecast. (CNBC)
    • Lots of talk at senior levels in UK finance circles that @trussliz is gone possibly as early as tomorrow….story developing. (GASPARINO FBN)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • CCXI Halt – Additional Information Requested by NASDAQ.
    • PPG elects Tim Knavish president and chief executive officer; Michael H. McGarry named executive chairman.
    • Urban Edge Properties (UE) appoints Jeffrey S. Mooallem to COO role.
    • ZK International (ZKIN) Receives Nasdaq Notice Regarding Minimum Bid Requirements.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Musk says Possible for Tesla (TSLA) to Do Stock Buyback of $5B to $10B.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Kala Pharmaceuticals (KALA) Announces Reverse Stock Split.
    • UBX trading r/s price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Armstrong World Industries (AWI) increase to quarterly cash dividend to $0.254 per share of common stock, a 10% bump.
    • Celanese (CE) increases its quarterly dividend to $0.70 per share, a 3% raise.
    • Crown Castle (CCI) increases annualized dividend by 6.5% to $6.26 per share.
    • BitNile Holdings (NILE) Declares Monthly Cash Dividend of $0.2708333 Per Share of 13.00% Series D Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Stock.
    • WSO: Raises dividend $0.25 to $2.45 per share.
    • Yum China (YUMC) Announces Disclosure under Hong Kong Stock Exchange Rules in Relation to a Possible Quarterly Dividend.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +7, Dow Jones +122, NASDAQ +6, and Russell 2000 +6. (as of 8:10 a.m. EDT). Europe higher ex Germany and Asia lower.  VIX Futures are at 30.27 from 31.12  yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 31.37 from 32.02 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher with Natural Gas flat. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.125% from 4.088% yesterday. Bitcoin is at $19,213.90 from $19,170 yesterday morning and is higher by 0.04% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical, Healthcare, Financial, Basic Materials, Utilities of note.
  • One Month Winners:  None of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: None of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

A digestive day is good!  Stocks pullback after 2 days of fantastic gains.  Interest rate worries edged solid corporate earnings.  RUT was down 1.72%.  UNG down 4.84%.  TLT dropped to a close of $96.53, but according to Fred Meissner, CMT, a test of 92 to 94 is expected.  He has had a hot hand in 2022!

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: CSX, SIVB, SNAP, RHI, WHR, WAL, FFIN, THC, GBCI, OZK, UFPI, SAM, EEFT, ASB, FFBC, HTH, BDN, BJRI of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: VZ, AXP, SLB, HCA, HBAN, RF, IPG, ALV, SXT of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: DHR +0.31, SNA +0.28, GPC +0.18, DGX +0.18, PM +0.17, POOL +0.14, ALK +0.14, AAL +0.13, BKU +0.08, DOV +0.07, T +0.06, WNS +0.06, BX +0.06, SNV +0.06, MMC +0.04, WBS +0.04, MSM +0.04, MAN +0.04, TSCO +0.03, BHLB +0.03, NOK +0.01, PPBI +0.01, IRDM +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: WSO (0.39), ERIC (0.28), SASR (0.20), ABB (0.17), HRI (0.17), FITB (0.07), DOW (0.06), BANC (0.04), KEY (0.04), AUB (0.02).
  • Still to Report: COLB , EWBC , FCX , HOMB , LNN , NUE , UNP

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ABT, LRCX, WU, LSTR, SMCI, TSCO, DGX, GPC, AAL, MAN of note.
  • Negative Guidance: PG, PLD, KNX, WDFC, CCI, EFX, PPG, HPE, T, WU of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: SMCI +13%, LBRT +4%, CE +4%.
  • Gap Down: ERIC -15%, TSCO -11%, AA -10%, ALL -9%, SSL -9%, NOK -6%, TSLA -6%, WDFC -5%, KNX -5%, BCLI -4%.

Insider Action:  NGM sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  JELD sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: T, AAL, BX, IBM, DOW, TSLA, LVS, ALL, WDFC, AA. (CNBC)
  • Five Things to Know This Morning. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss facing mounting pressure to resign. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Weed is coming to Circle K gas stations in Florida next year. (Bloomberg)
  • Turkey slashes interest rates by 1.50% despite inflation of 83%. (CNBC)
  • China summons chip companies for talks after Biden sweeping chip restrictions. (Bloomberg)
  • Beijing locks down some residential compounds as Covid cases rise. (Reuters)
  • Republicans hold a big lead on key economic issues ahead of the midterms. (CNBC)
  • 2 Year Treasury tops 4.60%. (CNBC)
  • IRS changes tax brackets for 2023, benefiting taxpayers. (CNBC)
  • ASML may be spared from U.S. chip restrictions. (Bloomberg)
  • U.S. College Enrollment fell for the third straight year. (WSJ)
  • Pharmaceutical companies are trying to limit the ability of Medicare to negotiate prices. (WSJ)
  • American Airlines (AAL) expects a strong Q4 after its Q3 earnings report. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • We main at 54%.  No ground given up, but no ground gained.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President departs the White House en route Joint Base Andrews, 11:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 11:20 a.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 12:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks on rebuilding our nation’s infrastructure, 2:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania en route Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 4:35 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 5:40 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a reception for Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, 7:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Philadelphia, Pennsylvania en route Joint Base Andrews, 8:10 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route the White House, 9:05 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives at the White House, 9:15 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • October Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall by -0.5% from last month’s -0.9%. 
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • September Existing Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to see 4.70 million from 4.80 million last month.
  • September Leading Economic Indicators are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to remain at -0.3%.
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT 

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker 12:00 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Research Board of Governors Philip N. Jefferson 1:30 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Research Board of Governors Lisa D. Cook 1:45 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Research Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 2:05 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • Alarm.com (ALRM) acquires Noonlight.
  • SBFM Announces The Acquisition Of Nora Pharma For $21 million In Cash, Common Stock, And An Earn-Out Amount social media.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Societe Generale Pan-European Real Estate Conference 2022 (10/20/22-10/22/22)
    • Truist Securities Genetic Medicine Summit 2022
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Credit Suisse Real Estate Conference
        • Cain Brothers 9th Annual Private Company Healthcare Conference
        • Gartner IT Symposium/Xpo (10/17/22-10/20/22)
  • Company Meetings: DHAC
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ORCL, MEGI, WU
    • Pfizer (PFE) Analyst and Investor Call to Review RSV Data Presented at ID Week 2022
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day:
    • Zynmeworks (ZYME) Early R&D Day 2022
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: