CAPIS Morning Note – 10/11/22: Stocks Lower On BOE Woes, But Off Lows On S&P 500 at 3584.25.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 3612.39 (lower by -0.75%) and Friday at 3639.66 (lower by -2.80%). The overnight high of 3636 was hit at 7:25 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3584.25 at 6:10 a.m. EDT, a range of 52 points high to low which is below the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 3612.39 (lower by -0.75%) and Friday at 3639.66 (lower by -2.80%). The overnight high of 3636 was hit at 7:25 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3584.25 at 6:10 a.m. EDT, a range of 52 points high to low which is below the recent range of 45.  At 7:15 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was down -27 points.  

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes: None of note.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: ANDE +4%.
    • Trading Down: RIGL -11%, LEG -8%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Two Fed officials make case for caution with future interest rate raises. (WSJ)
    • Goldman Sachs says it’s “too early” to price in a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve as the economic outlook isn’t bad enough yet, and rates markets remain volatile.
    • NASDAQ registered its lowest close since July 2020 today. (MarketWatch)
    • President Biden pledges advanced air defenses for Ukraine after latest Russian attack.
    • Monthly Assets Under Management Reports:
      • CNC down $10.6 billion to $79.2 billion.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • ANGI Announces CEO Transition.
    • Kinetik (KNTK) Announces Transfer of Its Common Stock Listing to New York Stock Exchange.
    • Light & Wonder (LNW) names Matt Wilson as President and CEO.
    • Reliance Steel (RS) announced that James D. Hoffman has announced his intention to step down as Chief Executive Officer.
    • PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) announced that Mr. Alexandre Magnani will become the company’s sole CEO.
    • Sealed Air (SEE) CFO to retire.
    • Sarcos Technology (STRC) appoints Drew Hammer as CFO.
    • XPO Logistics (XPO) Board of Directors Approves Separation of RXO and Declares the Distribution of RXO Shares.  CFO Ravi Tulsyan to leave the company after assisting with CFO transition.
    • Zscaler (ZS) Announces Resignation of Amit Sinha as President; Sinha to Remain on the Board of Directors.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Riley Permian (REPX) Increases Quarterly Cash Dividend to $0.34 per share, a $0.03 increase.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -18, Dow Jones -107 , NASDAQ -63, and Russell 2000 -11 . (as of 8:04 a.m. EDT). Europe lower ex Germany and Asia lower.  VIX Futures are at 31.90 from 29.77 Friday morning and the VIX closed at 31.36 from 30.42 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower with Natural Gas higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.933% from 3.88% yesterday. Bitcoin is at $19,109 from $19,302 yesterday morning and is lower by -0.59% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Defensive, Industrials, Basic Materials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Technology, Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical, Healthcare, Communication Services, Financials of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Energy of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

Let’s blame the semiconductors….or Jamie Dimon.  Mild open turned to negative sentiment.  NASDAQ down 1.04%.  TLT finally closed below 100 down 1.55% to finish at $99.42 even though the U.S. bond market was closed for Columbus Day.

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: PEP of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: TSM, BLK, PGR, WBA, FAST, DAL, DPZ, CMC, HTLD of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: AZZ (0.14).
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: FIVN, IRMD, ATEC, ASX, BDSX, OFIC, SPNE, NEWR, AAL of note.
  • Negative Guidance: PPG, LEG of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: SPNE +11%, STRC +5%, ANGI +4%, BKD +4%.
  • Gap Down: RIGL -9%, LEG -8%, ASX -4%.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  NREF sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: ZS BLK RBLX (CNBC)
  • Five Things To Know Before Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  Credit Suisse (CS) may face $8 billion shortfall in 2024. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story:  The Fed is in the Red. (Bloomberg)
  • Israel and Lebanon settle the maritime dispute which sets up rich gas exploration. (CNN)
  • Stocks slide over economic worries, tech meltdown and BOE woes. (Market Watch)
  • Treasury yield pop lifts the Dollar again. (Bloomberg)
  • Gartner says global PC demand has fallen by 19.5%. (Gartner Release)
  • KLA Corp (KLAC) will stop selling some supplies to Chinese customers. (Reuters)
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) factory has more quality problems. (Reuters)

Moving Average Update:

  • All red.  Score is 0%.  All index prices are below short and long term moving averages.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Briefing, 7:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President and G7 Leaders hold a virtual meeting to discuss their unwavering commitment to support Ukraine and hold Putin accountable in the face of Russia’s aggression and atrocities, including Russia’s recent missile strikes across Ukraine; President Zelenskyy of Ukraine joins Leaders at the top of the meeting, 8:00 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers virtual remarks at the Summit on Fire Prevention and Control, 2:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a virtual reception for Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester, 6:45 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is due out at 6:00 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 91.80.
    • US NFIB Sep Small Business Index 92.1 Vs 91.8 In Aug
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT
  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data is due out after the close and the collection period is from September 13th through September 28th. During this period, the S&P 500 fell -5.43%. We would expect short interest to rise as shorts pressed gains. Watch for a Zoom Call on Thursday to review the latest data.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker 11:30 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester 12:00 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BTG 13th Latin America CEO Conference 2022 (10/11/22-10/13/22)
    • John Tumazos Very Independent Research (10/11/22-10/12/22)
    • JP Morgan & Robin Hood Investors Conference 
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • None of note.
  • Company Meetings: PG
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ASAN, NSIT
  • Update: None of note
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • eGain Solve (EGAN) 2022 (10/11/22-10/12/22)
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Alliance for Regenerative Medicine Cell and Gene Meeting on the Mesa 2022 (10/11/22-10/13/22)
    • World Vaccine Congress Europe 2022 (10/11/22-10/14/22)
    • National Association for Business Economics
    • Satellite Innovation 2022 Silicon Valley Space Week (10/11/22-10/12/22)
    • United European Gastroenterology
        • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
          • None of note

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: