CAPIS Morning Note – 10/07/24: Stocks Lower To Start The Week.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.90% at 5751.07 from Thursday lower by -0.17% at 5699.94. The overnight high was hit at 5808 at 6:30 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5762.75 at 5:25 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 45 points. The current price is 5772.25 at 6:00 a.m….

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.90% at 5751.07 from Thursday lower by -0.17% at 5699.94. The overnight high was hit at 5808 at 6:30 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5762.75 at 5:25 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 45 points. The current price is 5772.25 at 6:00 a.m. EDT lower by -27.75 points.

Executive Summary: Another hurricane is brewing in the Gulf of Mexico, Milton, that could reach Tampa and cross the upper part of Florida on Wednesday.

Article of Note: How to Think About the Surprising Jobs Data. Mohamed El-Arian (Bloomberg)

Key Events of Note Today:

  • 3& 6 Month T Bill Auction at 11:30 a.m. EDT.
  • Consumer Credit due out at 3:00 p.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: AVNW -0.05 of note.
Capital Raises:
  • IPOs For The Week:
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • BNZI: Form S-1 Filed Series A Warrants to Purchase up to 1,176,471 shares of Class A Common
      Stock Series B Warrants to Purchase up to 1,176,471 shares of Class A Common Stock
    • ELAB – Commences Offer to Exchange Up to 15,000,000 shares of Common Stock For Shares of
      Non Tradable. Locked Up Series B Preferred Stock
    • MGOL: Form S-1 Common Stock and Warrants
    • MULN: Form S-1.. 30,000,000 Shares of Common Stock
    • OBLG: Form S-3 Filed – 1,527,400 SHARES OF COMMON STOCK
  • Notes Priced:
    • TPX: Pricing of $1.6 Billion Term Loan B Facility
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • APLD files for share 49,382,720 common stock offering by selling shareholders
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CFG files mixed securities shelf offering 
    • CELZ: Form S-3.. $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf
    • PSTV: Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf
  • PIPE: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down Last Week:

  • Movers Up:  MESO (10.33 +35.92%), EBS (9.35 +24.83%), APOG (83.99 +20.31%), UXIN (6.69 +28.63%), JKS (29.93 +28.95%), DQ (23.96 +22.16%), NBR (80.8 +30.43%), UNFI (19.71 +17.81%).
  • Movers Down: HUM (242.11 -24.24%), ANGO (6.02 -21.48%), PRTA (16.72 -16.61%), NTLA (17.75 -15.48%), IRTC (62 -14.92%), RUN (16.31 -11.86%), SRI (9.85 -13.37%), PLCE (14.98 -11.99%), OXM (76.44 -11.57%), SATS (23.4 -16.57%), SEDG (20.06 -13.24%), MXL (13.39 -11.94%), NUS (6.28 -14.74%), IMKTA (63.4 -14.73%)

News After The Close:

    • ALTM +39% making a big move after hours on report that Rio Tinto (RIO) has been holding talks to buy lithium miner Arcadium. (Reuters)
    • APD  +5.2% moving higher after hours on report activist Mantle Ridge has accumulated a $1+ bln stake.
    • HIMS to join S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the open on October 9.
    • GD awarded a $376.8 mln modification to previously awarded US Navy contract, awarded a $244 mln US Navy order.
    • 10Q Delays:
    • NASDAQ Delisting Notice:  None of note.

Buybacks or Repurchases: 

  •  

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • BLD COO Joseph Viselli transitions to role of Chief Growth Officer 
  • BBAI names Carl Napoletano as COO
  • NXST eliminates position of Chief Revenue Officer in favor of a more streamlined organizational structure 
  • IPI CEO Bob Jornayvaz has stepped down following extended medical leave of absence; Company’s CFO, Matt Preston, will continue to serve as acting principal executive officer

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: MU EIX ERIE MKC OGE WERN EPAC SCVL PFBC 
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: DG MTN AMRK MAIN

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 -24 NASDAQ 100 -110 Dow Jones -163 Russell 2000 +2.30 (at 8:15 a.m. EDT). Asia is higher while Europe is higher ex Germany. VIX Futures are at 19.05 from 19.20 yesterday while Bonds are at 4.00% from 3.96% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold is higher with Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $63,005 up by 250 +0.38% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Financial, Consumer Cyclical, Technology and Communication Services of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate of note.
  • One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Utilities, Materials, Communication Services and Technology and Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Financials, Materials, Industrials,  and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Utilities,  Real Estate, Materials, Technology, Consumer Defensive and Financials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Utilities, Financials, Communication Services, Industrials and Real Estate note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Utilities,  Communication Services, Financials, Industrials and Consumer Defensive of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close: 

  • Tuesday Before The Open: None of note

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: NAPA +0.04 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line sees weakness on the weekly.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: ALTM +35.7%, AVNW +9.5%, NIU +8.2%, VSTO +7.3%, HIMS +6.3%, NAAS +5.7%, APD +5.1%, MYTE +3%, CURV +2.5%
  • Gap Down: BDSX -4.7%, APLD -3.4%, HDB -2.5%, SEER -2%

Insider Action: ARR sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  None of note see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • What You Need to Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Pre-Market Movers:  (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Bond Traders buckle up for “no landing”. (Bloomberg)
  • Markets Wrap: . (Bloomberg)
  • Milton strengthens into a Category 3 as evacuations start. (CNBC)
  • Activist Starboard takes on $1 billion stake in Pfizer (PFE). (CNBC)
  • US Crude Oil jumps 3% on Israel strikes. (CNBC)
  • Goldman says Chinese stocks may advance another 20%. (Bloomberg)
  • China to reopen from holiday Tuesday. (CNBC)
  • 10-Year back above 4.00%. (CNBC)
  • Barron’s is + on WMT and overall markets, with mixed views on CVS.
  • Bloomberg Big Take:  Inside the Dock Workers Deal. (Podcast)
  • Bloomberg Odd Lots: The math behind multi-strat hedge funds. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: Weekly Recap. (Podcast)
  • Marketplace: The quest to discover the creator of Bitcoin. (Podcast)
  • The NY Times Daily: The Year Since Oct 7th. (Podcast)

Economic:

  • August Consumer Credit is due out at 3:00 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:

  • President Biden receives the President’s Daily Brief at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Speakers: 

  • Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Nel Kashkari will speak at 1:50 p.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic will speak at 6:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve St. Louis President Alberto Musalem will speak at 6:30 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity and News:

Moving Averages On Major Equity Indexes: Move to 57% positive from 60%.

 

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

    • Sellside Conferences:
      • BAC CNS Therapeutics Virtual Conference
      • JP Morgan Software Forum
      • Wainwright MASH Investor Conference
    • Fireside Chat: None of note.
    • Top Shareholder Meetings: HBIO, LQDA, NCNC, STSS, TECH
    • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: SBRA
    • Update: None of note.
    • R&D Day: None of note.
    • FDA Presentation: None of note.
    • Company Event: None of note.
    • Industry Meetings or Events:
      • AHCA/NCAL Convention & Expo
      • Cell & Gene Meeting on the Mesa
      • FirstNet Users Summit
      • Global Gaming Expo
      • Meeting of the Oligonucleotide Therapeutics Society

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: NXPI FRO COTY 

Downgrades: NFLX MBLY GRMN DD CXM CTRI CMA BKD AMN