CAPIS Morning Note – 10/04/24: Monthly Jobs Data To Drive Today’s Action. Stocks Up Modestly

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.17% at 5699.94 from Wednesday higher by +0.01% at 5709.54. The overnight high was hit at 5765.75 at 6:35 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5741 at 6:15 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 24 points. The current price is 5763.50 at 6:50 a.m….

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.17% at 5699.94 from Wednesday higher by +0.01% at 5709.54. The overnight high was hit at 5765.75 at 6:35 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5741 at 6:15 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 24 points. The current price is 5763.50 at 6:50 a.m. EDT higher by +14 points.

Executive Summary: Markets will react to the Monthly Jobs Data at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Another Goldilocks number?

Article of Note: Do Americans Really Want a “Politics of Joy”? by Peggy Noonan. (WSJ)

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
Capital Raises:
  • IPOs For The Week: ADUR, CUPR, FBGL, FVR, JUNS, PTLE, SAG, SARO,
    SNYR, SUNH, WCT, ZJK
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • GTI files Class A ordinary shares offering
  • Notes Priced:
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • NOTV: Form S-3.. 4,146,250 Common Shares Offered by the Selling Shareholders
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CRVO files $250 million mixed shelf securities offering
    • NMHI files a mixed shelf securities offering
  • PIPE: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:

  • Movers Up: MMLP +10%, SMMT +2.8%, AKYA +2.5%, 
  • Movers Down: CLMT -4.4%, WULF -3.4%, CBOE -2.6%, RARE -2.2%

News After The Close:

    • Martin Midstream (MMLP) to be acquired by Martin Resource Management Corporation; expected to close by the end of 2024
    • U.S. Port Strike ends as tentative deal reached into January.
    • ABBV lowers its FY24 adjusted EPS guidance following acquired IPR&D and milestones expenses
    • CBOE lowers its FY24 adjusted EPS guidance following acquired IPR&D and milestones expenses (Press Release)
    • HZO provides update on impact from Hurricane Helene; disruption to certain locations on the west coast of Florida has been significant; lowers FY24 (Sep) revenue expectations
    • Donald Trump states that, if elected, no state can ban gas-powered vehicles, + for Auto stocks. (Reuters)
    • Kirk strengthens into a category 4 major hurricane. (NHC Release)
    • Spirit Airlines (SAVE) explores a potential bankruptcy filing. (WSJ)
    • Amkor (AMKR) and Taiwan Semi (TSM) sign MOU to collaborate and bring advanced packaging and test capabilities to Arizona
    • GD awarded $244 mln U.S. Navy contract 
    • XOM details items that will impact Q3 results; changes in gas prices negatively impacting Q3 upstream earnings by $(0.2)-0.2 bln
    • PYPL completes its first business transaction using its stablecoin cryptocurrency. (Bloomberg)
    • 10Q Delays:
    • NASDAQ Delisting Notice:  None of note.

Buybacks or Repurchases

  • .

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • AKYA appoints Scott Mendel as Chairman of the Board, effective Oct 2
  • SEI COO Kelly Price to retire, effective December 31 
  • JACK announces departure of CFO Brian Scott to accept a postion outside of the restaurant industry; Dawn Hooper appointed CFO
  •  IQVentures Holdings completes takeover of AAN which will cease trading as of today and no longer be listed on the NYSE
  • AMN appoints Brian Scott as CFO and COO, effective November 21
  • DJT COO Andrew Northwall resigned, effective September 28
  • NEU CFO William J. Skrobacz stepping down, effective December 31; names Timothy K. Fitzgerald as successor

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: JPM AXP MMC BMY TDG SYY NTAP DGX MORN SNN GL RGLD CHX HASI
  • Stocks Ex Div Monday: MU EIX ERIE MKC OGE WERN EPAC SCVL PFBC 

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 +13 NASDAQ 100 +66 Dow Jones +55 Russell 2000 +21 (at 7:54 a.m. EDT). Asia is mixed while Europe is flat to mixed. VIX Futures are at 19.20 from 19.69 yesterday while Bonds are at 3.80% from 3.76%  on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. Gold, Silver and Copper are down. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the YenBitcoin is at $60,691 from $60,942 up by 434 +0.76% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy and Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Materials, Consumer Cyclicals, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Utilities, Materials and Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Financials, Materials and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Utilities,  Real Estate, Financials, Materials and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Financials, Communication Services, Industrials, Utilities and Real Estate note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Utilities, Financials, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note
  • Monday Before The Open: None of note

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: APOG +0.21 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line broke its 30-day moving average.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: SMMT +17.5%, MMLP +9.9%, LNW +5.8%, CLMT +5.2%, CRVO +5%, APOG +4.3%, AMKR +3.8%, TRVI +3.6%, TLN +3.2%, IDYA +3%, UUUU +2.7%
  • Gap Down: RIVN -6.4%, CBOE -2.5%, ABVX -2.4%, DSGR -2.3%

Insider Action: NFE sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  TTSH sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • What You Need to Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Pre-Market Movers: SAVE SMMT RIVN CVS CB  (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: US Jobs Report Is Expected To Show Stable Growth For September. (Bloomberg)
  • Markets Wrap: US Futures edge up before jobs report as oil rises. (Bloomberg)
  • Israel struck more targets in the Middle East. (NYT)
  • European Shipping stocks drop as U.S. port strike settled. (CNBC)
  • Harris campaigns with Liz Cheney, targeting Trump Republicans. (CNBC)
  • Barron’s is + on GOOGL and HIMS (Barron’s). Mixed on Utilities DUK D ED VST CEG. (Barron’s)
  • Bloomberg Big Take: Goldman Sachs Spinoff Eisler Capital struggles to join a seat the the hedge fund industry’s top table. (Podcast)
  • Bloomberg Odd Lots: Lots more on the ongoing mess that is Intel. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: David Rosenberg warns of recession ahead. (Podcast)
  • Marketplace: Bytes Week In Review. (Podcast)
  • The NY Times Daily: Four Weeks To The Election. (Podcast)

Economic:

  • September Nonfarm Payrolls are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 135,000 from 142,000, though of late we have been getting downward revisions of the prior month reported numbers. The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay at 4.2%.
  • The Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:

  • President Biden receives the President’s Daily Brief at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre at 1:30 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Speakers: 

  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams will speak at 9:00 a.m. EDT.

M&A Activity and News:

  • Martin Midstream (MMLP) to be acquired by Martin Resource Management Corporation; expected to close by the end of 2024

Moving Averages On Major Equity Indexes: Move to 57% positive from 60%.

 

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

    • Sellside Conferences:
      • Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference
    • Fireside Chat: None of note.
    • Top Shareholder Meetings: CALM, FIZZ, UMC
    • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: BGLC, CALM, KTRA, SMLR
    • Update: None of note.
    • R&D Day: None of note.
    • FDA Presentation: None of note.
    • Company Event: None of note.
    • Industry Meetings or Events:
      • Global Angioedema Forum
      • HAEi Global Angioedema Forum (GAF)
      • International Conference on Silicon Carbide and Related Materials
      • Medical Aesthetic Injectable Summit

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: BKSY MS EQIX CVS CHRW

Downgrades: WMG CB