Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -1.46% at -88.96. Friday lower by -0.29% at 6101.24. The overnight high was hit at 6073 at 5:20 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 6032.50 at 9:00 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 41 points. The current price is higher at 7:00 a.m by +0.29% at 6084.25 up +17.75 points.
Executive Summary: The S&P 500 has now fallen by -1% or more on three days this month with yesterday being the third down day of more than -1%. So we are clustering with multiple -1% losses. With four trading days left in the month and a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting, expect the unexpected.
Articles of Note: See Rags & Mags Bloomberg videos on DeepSeek.
*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted sources like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.
Key Events of Note Today:
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- Several economic indicators out today Durable Orders, Case Shiller Housing Index, Consumer Confidence and Weekly API numbers.
- 7 Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT and there is a 2 Yr FRN Note Auction at 11:30 a.m. EDT.
Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart in The Morning Note? Simply send an email to us at [email protected] and we will more than likely show it.
Jet Blue (JBLU) is a Type 1 Short Squeeze. Other airplane stocks are also Short Squeezes DAL and UAL. The stock is lower by -7% on earnings this morning.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: NUE +0.58, WRB +0.17, WSFS +0.14, SBCF +0.14, BRO +0.09, SANM +0.08, CR +0.06, WAL +0.05, MRTN +0.01 of note.
- Flat: TRNS, ELS and ARE of note.
- Misses: PCH -0.40, GGG -0.012 of note.
- IPOs For The Week: BBNX, FBGL, INR, RCT, SFD
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- AKRO announces proposed public offering of $300 mln of common stock.
- ETNB commences public offering of $250.0 mln shares of common stock.
- ANGI: Form S-3.. Class A Common Stock.
- IDAI: Form S-1.. Up to 2,096,842 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
- MTEN: Form F-1.. Ordinary Shares.
- Notes Priced:
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- QMCO files for 2,302,733 shares of common stock by selling shareholder.
- SKYH files for 7,911,580 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- BLTE files mixed shelf securities offering.
- ALCE: FORM S-1 – Mixed Shelf Offering
- SOUN: Form S-3.. $500,000,000 Mixed Shelf
- PIPE:
- Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
Biggest Movers Up & Down Yesterday:
- Movers Up: SBCF +4.2%, SANM +3.8%, HESM +3.6%, BRO +2.9%, CLPT +2.9%, BWXT +2.1% of note.
- Movers Down: SFBS -6.2%, ELS -6%, GGG -5.5%, TRNS -4.9%, ETNB -2.4%, WAL -2.2%, of note.
News After The Close:
- Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) reaches a tentative four-year collective agreement with Unifor representing approximately 1,200 employees at CPKC in Canada.
- Essential Utilities (WTRG) Aqua Pennsylvania awarded nearly $29 million in funding to remove PFAS from drinking water across commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
- ClearPoint Neuro (CLPT) announces FDA clearance for its ClearPoint Navigation Software Version 3.0.
- BWX Technologies (BWXT) announces contracts with a total value of more than $1 billion Canadian for two major nuclear energy projects that will enable Ontario Power Generation’s life extension of the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station, and the deployment of a new small modular reactor (smr) at the Darlington site.
- General Mills (GIS) lowers FY25 adjusted EPS guidance to down 4% to down 2%.
- GE awarded $3.5 bln U.S. Air Force contract modification.
- RTX awarded $3.5 bln U.S. Air Force contract modification.
- LMT awarded $502 mln U.S. Navy contract.
- 10K or Qs Delays – none of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
Buybacks:
- Canada Goose (GOOS) announces a renewal of regulatory relief regarding the share repurchase program allowing it to purchase up to 10% of its float.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: WIT CRS APOG
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: LEN CLX ENTG QGEN AM CALM GBX PSEC MCBS
- ET increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.3250/share from $0.3225/share.
- HESM increases its quarterly cash distribution by 2.4% to $0.7012 per share.
- HWM increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.08/share from $0.10/share.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:05 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +9, NASDAQ +36.50, Dow Jones -17 and Russell 2000 -24.44. Europe is higher with Asia lower ex China. Bonds are at 4.569% from 4.514% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $102, 811 from $99,156 higher by $+1950 up 1.91%. Additional Comments: The S&P 500 has now reversed the breakthrough its December high one trading day later and and is now well below 6100. Can 6000 hold?
- Daily Positive Sectors: Were led by Consumer Defensive, Healthcare, Real Estate, Financials and Consumer Cyclicals.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Utilities, Industrials, Energy and Communication Services were lower.
- One Month Winners: None of note.
- Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
- Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Utilities and Industrials of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy, Healthcare, Communication Services, Materials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Tuesday After the Close:
- Wednesday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: RCL +0.13, ADNT +0.05, JBLU +0.08, GM +0.07, SAP +0.07, IVZ +0.05, PII +0.03 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: XRX +0.17, SYF -0.02 and KMB -0.01 of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support, bounced, made new lows and now is starting to bounce off that low.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: LTBR +6.4%, BITF +5.7%, OKLO +4.2%, BWXT +3.7%, SBCF +3.3%, HIVE +3.2%, TLN +3.1%, PRMB +2.8%, GLNG +2.5%, RCL +2.5%, WTRG +2.1% of note.
- Gap Down: PII -7.1%, SYF -7%, CR -5.9%, PCH -4.3%, IPX -4.2%, GGG -3.5%, KMB -3.5%, TRNS -3%, CLPT -2.9%, APLS -2.7%, CCEC -2.6%, SKYH -2.5%, WSFS -2.2%, WAL -2.1%, ELS -2% of note.
Insider Action: None see Insider buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Lead Story on Bloomberg: Trump Renews Universal Tariff Threat to Protect U.S. (Bloomberg)
- Market Wrap: NASDAQ Futures edge higher as Nvidia rebounds. (Bloomberg)
- 5 Things To Know Before the Market Opens. (CNBC)
- Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: NVDA JBLU ORCL GM. (CNBC)
- Cathie Wood talks DeepSeek lessons for the market. (Bloomberg)
- UK raises cloud computing concerns against Amazon and Microsoft. (CNBC)
- Boeing (BA) CEO lays out recovery plan. (CNBC)
- Bloomberg Big Take: DeepSeek challenges everyone’s assumption about AI costs. (Podcast)
- Bloomberg Odd Lots:The AI Model that tanked the stock market. (Bloomberg)
Economic:
- December Durable Goods are expected to grow by 0.4% from -1.10% when released at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
- November Case Shiller Housing Index is due out at 9:00 a.m. EDT and expected to stay at 9:00 a.m. EDT.
- December Consumer Confidence is out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall back to rise to 108.10 from 104.70.
- API Petroleum Institute Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
- President Trump’s Daily Schedule. Nothing up yet and is back at the White House.
- Federal Reserve speakers are in the blackout period through this week’s FOMC meeting.
M&A Activity and News:
Moving Average Table: Drops from 97% to 70%.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
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- Sellside Conferences:
- BMO Industrial Private Company Conference
- Jefferies Boston Restaurant Corporate Day
- o Jefferies SMid Cap Consumer Conference
- Sellside Conferences:
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- Shareholder Meetings: BTAI, BDX, CFFN, HRL, TFFP, V, VVV
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: ACOG, BA, LXRX, MMSI, NPCE, OPT, SABS, YUM
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: SABS: Data Presentation on SAB-142
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- ESN Client Seminar on ESN Top Picks
- International Production & Processing Expo
- Microcap Conference
- Society of Thoracic Surgeons
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
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- Upgrades: ROP
- Downgrades:
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