CAPIS Morning Note – 1/27/25: Markets Deep Sixed Oops That Is Deep Seeked. Monday Bloody Monday For Futures.

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Friday lower by -0.29% at 6101.24. Thursday higher by 0.53% at 6118.71. The overnight high was hit at 6105.25 at 6:00 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5948 at 5:50 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 157 points. The current price is lower […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Friday lower by -0.29% at 6101.24. Thursday higher by 0.53% at 6118.71. The overnight high was hit at 6105.25 at 6:00 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5948 at 5:50 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 157 points. The current price is lower at 7:00 a.m by -2.44% at 5986 down -146.75 points.

Executive Summary: The S&P 500 has fallen by -1% or more on two days this month. So we are clustering with multiple -1% losses. Chances are still high for losses of more than -1%. Well, we are getting that this morning in spades. The last loss of more than -1.00% was on January 10th. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6101.24. So why are we down more than -2% this morning across the board? Watch the video in the Article of Note on China’s competitor to OpenAI, DeepSeek.

Articles of Note: “Inside DeepSeek’s AI Breakthrough.” by Deirdre Bosa

*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted sources like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.

Key Events of Note Today:

- Chicago Fed National Activity Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
- December New Home Sales are due out and expected to rise to 680,000 from 664,000.
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
- 2 Year Note Auction at 11:30 a.m. EDT and there is a 3 Month Bill Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart in The Morning Note? Simply send an email to us at [email protected] and we will more than likely show it.

Quantum Computing (QUBT) is a Type 2 Recognized Strentgh. The shorts are gone and the Technicals are strong. A break of $8 would be a big problem and turn it into Long Squeeze.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close

Beats: None of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

IPOs For The Week:
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- CLNN: FORM S-3 – Up to 1,146,789 Shares of Common Stock.
- JTAI: Form S-3.. 1,270,000 Shares of Common Stock.
- KALA: Form S-3.. 1,669,203 Shares.
- LQR: Form S-3.. 7,366,209 Shares of Common Stock.
- MGLD Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock – Maxim bookmanager.
- OMEX: Form S-1.. 40,924,202 Shares.
Notes Priced:
Direct Offering: None of note.
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- FHTX files $300 mln mixed shelf securities offering.
- ECOR files $100 mln mixed shelf securities offering.
- MVST files for $250 mln mixed securities shelf offering.
- BOXL: Form S-3.. $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- CCTG: Form F-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- PTPI: Form S-1.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
- PW: Form S-3.. $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- SYRA: Form S-3.. $75,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- VINC: Form S-3..$100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
PIPE:
Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
- TTGT – Final Results of Offers to Purchase Any and All of Informa TechTargets’s Outstanding
  0.125% Convertible Senior Notes due 2025 and 0.000% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down Last Week:

Movers Up: EOLS (14.22 +35.25%), GH (46.74 +27.5%), ATRA (8.28 +25.98%), TBPH (10.48 +22.15%), MRNA (41.27 +21.17%), BE (29.63 +23.87%), MIDD (167.93 +18.24%), TAL (11.8 +19.5%), DAN (15.18 +17.49%), HIMX (12.81 +44.75%), TWLO (135.75 +21.27%) of note.
Movers Down: CRBP (10.44 -12.42%), EXEL (32.32 -10.72%), OMER (8.41 -9.86%), FTAI (93.11 -17.15%), TTEK (38.25 -10.17%), EDU (46.58 -23.44%), ODP (22.4 -9.62%), PRGS (53.3 -15.32%), FSLR (168.17 -12.81%), ERIC (7.65 -10.42%), CACI (406.36 -10.17%), LOB (34.88 -14.22%), GTE (6.31 -14.8%), STNG (46.71 -11.57%), GPRK (9.34 -10.62%), ELF (110.68 -12.82%) of note.

News After The Close:

Pfizer (PFE) to pay nearly $60 mln to resolve false claims allegations. (DOJ Release)
Source Capital (SOR), a closed-end fund (“Source”), is interested in discussing a potential merger with 180 Degree Capital Corp. (TURN). First Pacific Advisors, LP (“FPA”), is the adviser to Source and is a registered investment adviser. FPA currently manages $27 billion, which includes $350 million related to its management of Source.
Index Changes:
- Guidewire (GWRE) will replace Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) in the S&P MidCap 400, and Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals will replace Barnes Group (B) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Monday, January 27, B is being taken over.
10K or Qs Delays – none of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

JANX promotes Zachariah McIver to Chief Medical Officer.
GNL appointed current Senior VP of Corporate Development Ori Kravel as COO, effective January 23.

Buybacks:

Dividends Announcements or News:

Stocks Ex Div Today: BK CAG USAC RMR
Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: WIT CRS APOG
BKH increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.676/share from $0.65/share

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:05 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 -129, NASDAQ -805, Dow Jones -326 and Russell 2000 -24.44. Europe is higher ex the FTSE with Asia mixed. Bonds are at 4.514% from 4.644% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $99,156 from $105,232 higher by $+800 up 0.78%. Additional Comments: The S&P 500 has now reversed the breakthrough its December high one trading day later and and is now well below 6000.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):

Daily Positive Sectors: Were led by Communication Services, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate.
Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Energy and Industrials were lower.
One Month Winners: None of note.
Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Utilities and Industrials of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
Year to Date Winners: Energy, Healthcare, Communication Services, Materials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Monday After the Close:
Tuesday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

Beats: HOPE +0.06, T +0.05, BOH +0.01, SOFU +0.01 of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: of note.
Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

Positive Guidance: of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: T of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support, bounced, made new lows and now is starting to bounce off that low.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

Gap Up: AKRO +92.9%, TVGN +54.1%, DADA +31.2%, LGTY +24.6%, SOR +14%, BOH +5%, IPHA +4%, DEC +2.6%, SA +2%, DVAX +2%, AZPN +2% of note.
Gap Down: VERU -19.8%, MVST -14.7%, NVDA -12.8%, ARM -9.6%, KOPN -7.9%, AI -7.3%, KULR -7.3%, MSFT -6.2%, SPOT -5.2%, XLK -5%, AMD -4.8%, META -4.5%, QQQ -4.1%, NTRA -3.6%, ECOR -3.5%, PRTC -2.5%, SPY -2.4%, X -2% of note.

Insider Action: None see Insider buying with dumb short selling. LAKE and TTSH see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

Lead Story on Bloomberg: DeepSeek Buzz Puts Tech Stocks on Track For a $1.2 Trillion Loss. (Bloomberg)
Market Wrap: NASDAQ Futures sink 5% on Deepseek story. (Bloomberg)
5 Things To Know Before the Market Opens. (CNBC)
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: NVDA MSFT CEG T. (CNBC)
Trump reaches a deal with Colombia on migrants. (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg Big Take: Maersk and MSC go head to head in hunt for shipping’s white whale. (Podcast)
Bloomberg Odd Lots: How Howard Marks spots a market bubble. (Bloomberg)

Economic:

December New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 680,000 from 664,000

Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)

President Trump’s Daily Schedule. President Trump returns to Washington D.C. from Doral, later tonight, after addressing a GOP Retreat in Miami.

Federal Reserve speakers are in the blackout period through this week’s FOMC meeting.

M&A Activity and News:

Moving Average Table: Hangs at 97%.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

- Sellside Conferences:

- Shareholder Meetings: APTO, BAM, CADE, CCLD, EDBL, EAST, LCTX, SMG, VSTS
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: DRTS
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- Industry Meetings or Events:
  - SLAS International Conference and Exhibition
  - Society of Thoracic Surgeons

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

- - Upgrades: TWLO (2) TNL SSB RDW PTLO BTI APLE
  - Downgrades: PLUG RLI FNMA FMCC BLMN