Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday higher by 0.53% at 6118.71. Wednesday higher by 0.61% at 6086.37. The overnight high was hit at 6156 at 10:00 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 6139 at 5:40 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 17 points. The current price is lower at 7:05 a.m by -0.13% at -8.00% at 6144.
Executive Summary: The S&P 500 has fallen by -1% or more on two days this month. So we are clustering with multiple -1% losses. Chances are still high for losses of more than -1%. The longer we get away from the last loss of more than -1%, the better the odds we are through the turbulence. The last loss of more than -1.00% was on January 10th so we are 8 trading days removed. The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 6118.71 a new high taking out the December 6th high at 6090.27. We cleared that high on a closing basis so the lid on the S&P 500 is removed for now.
Articles of Note: “Japan Central Bank Drops The Drama And Wins On Rates'” by Daniel Moss & Gearoid Ready at Bloomberg
*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted sources like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.
Key Events of Note Today:
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- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and remember they publish a subset of inflation data.
- Existing Home Sales are also due out and expected to rise to 4.21 million from 4.15 million.
- Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
- 10 Year TIPS Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart in The Morning Note? Simply send an email to us at [email protected] and we will more than likely show it.
Comerica (CMA) just moved to a Type 4 Long Squeeze. The shorts are gone and the Technicals are weak. A break of $60 would be a big problem.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: ISRG +0.42, SSB +0.28, ASB +0.18, CUBU +0.17, TXN +0.07, COLB +0.06, FFBC +0.06, FFIN +0.03, GBCI +0.02 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: SLM -0.05, EWBC -0.01 of note.
- IPOs For The Week: CRGT, FBGL, FCHL, FLOC, HXHX, SLGB,
TOPP - New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- LULU files for 5,115,961 shares of common stock offering.
- GXAI: FORM S-1 – Up to 3,005,642 Shares of Common Stock.
- PBM: Form F-1.. 380,000 Common Shares 2,695,000 Common Shares Underlying Warrants
- Notes Priced:
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- AIM: Form S-1 — Mixed Shelf.
- MSAI: FORM S-3 – $75,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
- PIPE:
- Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
- SMLR announces proposed private offering of $75 million of convertible senior notes; intends to use proceeds to acquire Bitcoin.
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
Biggest Movers Up & Down Yesterday:
- Movers Up: TWLO +10.7%, GRND +7.7%, DDD +7.4%, EBC +5.1%, CUBI +4.4%, BFST +2.4%, FFBC +2.2%, SLM +2% of note.
- Movers Down: SMLR -12.9%, CVLG -4.7%, CSX -4%, TXN -4%, EWBC -3.8%, ISRG -2.2%, LULU -2.1% of note.
News After The Close:
- Texas Instruments (TXN) guided below estimates taking Semis lower across the board. (CNBC)
- Twilio (TWLO) guides higher.
- President Trump signs executive order to create a cryptocurrency working group.
- Granite Construction (GVA) awarded an $88 million contract by the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to improve a section of Ortega Highway State Route 74.
- Boeing (BA) projects Q4 revenue below consensus.
- Assurant (AIZ) expects recording $40 mln after tax reportable catastrophes for Q4, more favorable than early estimates; California wildfires to be a reportable catastrophe for 1Q25.
- Index Changes:
- Guidewire (GWRE) will replace Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) in the S&P MidCap 400, and Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals will replace Barnes Group (B) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Monday, January 27, B is being taken over.
- 10K or Qs Delays – none of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- NextEra Energy Partners (NEP) is changing its name to XPLR Infrastructure, effective today and will begin trading under the new ticker symbol, XIFR, on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday, Feb. 3.
Buybacks:
- EWBC increases share repurchase authorization by $300 mln.
- TWLO authorizes up to $2.0 bln for repurchases; plan to expire on December 31, 2027
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: PG PFE PNR BSBR UNM SNX COKE ACI SM SIG LKFN BUSE KALU GOOD GLAD
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: BK CAG USAC RMR
- WTFC increases quarterly cash dividend 11.1% to $0.50/share from $.045/share.
- AYI increases its quarterly dividend by 13% to $0.17/share.
- EWBC increases dividend
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:05 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 -6, NASDAQ -10, Dow Jones -83 and Russell 2000 -4.70. Europe is higher ex the FTSE with Asia mixed. Bonds are at 4.644% from 4.642% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $105,232 from $101,590 higher by $+800 up 0.78%. Additional Comments: The S&P 500 broke through its December high and cleared 6100.
- Daily Positive Sectors: All were higher led by Healthcare, Industrials, Communication Services and Utilities.
- Daily Negative Sectors: None were lower.
- One Month Winners: None of note.
- Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
- Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Utilities and Industrials of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy, Healthcare, Communication Services, Materials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Friday After the Close: None of note.
- Monday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: FCNCA +6.14, LKFN +0.4, AXP +0.01, VZ +0.01, ORI +0.20, BANC +0.05, FBP +0.05, PPBI +0.04, ELV +0.03, MKC +0.03 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: ERIC -0.74 of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: TWLO of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: CAT BA TXN of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support, bounced, made new lows and now is starting to bounce off that low.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: TWLO +17.5%, TVGN +17.4%, DDD +14.8%, NVO +10.1%, GRND +8.2%, BFST +5.9%, CUBI +5.2%, LRMR +3.6% of note.
- Gap Down: LITM -27%, SMLR -10.9%, ERIC -8.8%, EWBC -6.6%, HTBK -6.4%, CVLG -5%, TXN -4.5%, FFIN -4.2%, ISRG -3.5%, CSX -2.9%, FFBC -2.5% of note.
Insider Action: None see Insider buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Lead Story on Bloomberg: Trump Would Rather “Not” Put Tariffs on China. (Bloomberg)
- Market Wrap: Stocks rise as Trump softens China stance. (Bloomberg)
- 5 Things To Know Before the Market Opens. (CNBC)
- Stocks Making The Biggest Moves:. (CNBC)
- The majority of trading is being done “off exchange”. (Bloomberg)
- Novo-Nordisk (NVO) pops 14% on positive tests for weight loss drug. (CNBC)
- Bloomberg Big Take: Elon Musk’s Air Force One Scrutiny Tests Boeing ‘s Path to Recovery. (Podcast)
- Bloomberg Odd Lots: Market may be at highest concentration risk. (Bloomberg)
Economic:
- January University of Michigan Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 73 from 74 in December.
- December Existing Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 4.21 million from 4.15 million.
- Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
- President Trump’s Daily Schedule yet to publish. Bottomline, he is not playing ball with the press on his day to day.
- Federal Reserve speakers are in the blackout period into next week’s FOMC meeting.
M&A Activity and News:
Moving Average Table: Hangs at 97%.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
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- Sellside Conferences:
- CIBC Western Institutional Investor Conference
- Sellside Conferences:
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- Shareholder Meetings: AVGR, ENR, NAAS, SBH
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: ADAG, DAN
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- CHRS: Data Presentation for Casdozokitug atezolizumab & bevacizumab.
- RNXT: Data Presentation for RenovoGem.
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- ASCO Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium
- National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Convention & Expo
- World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
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- Upgrades: XP WPP STLD SHW SGHC QSR
- Downgrades: CF
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