Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.88% at 6049.24. Friday higher by 1.00% at 5996.66. The overnight high was hit at 6114.75 at 4:30 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 6087 at 6:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 27 points. The current price is higher at 7:00 a.m by 0.41% up by +24.75 at 6109.
Executive Summary: The S&P 500 has fallen by -1% or more on two days this month. So we are clustering with multiple -1% losses. Chances are still high for losses of more than -1%. The longer we get away from the last loss of more than -1%, the better the odds we are through the turbulence. The last loss of more than -1.00% was on January 10th.
Articles of Note: “Trump’s Economics Are Anybody’s Guess, Here’s Mine”. Bill Dudley.
*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted sources like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.
Key Events of Note Today:
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- Leading Indicators out at 10:00 a.m. as well as weekly Mortgage Applications and API Crude Oil Inventories.
- 20 Year Bond Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart in The Morning Note? Simply send an email to us at [email protected] and we will more than likely show it.
Netflix (NFLX) earnings report came in strong and the shorts are running. Shares are trading at $999 in the pre-market.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: UAL +0.23, IBKR +0.19, STX +0.15, WTFC +0.15, HWC +0.12, PNFP +0.12, PRGS +0.12, FULT +0.10, ZION +0.08, PFC +0.07, NFLX +.06, CASH +0.06, AGYS +0.04, SFNC +0.03, of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: COF -0.16 of note.
- IPOs For The Week: CRGT, FBGL, FCHL, FLOC, HXHX, SLGB,
TOPP - New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- IRON announces proposed public offering of $200 mln of common stock and pre-funded warrants.
- PHIO: Form S-1.. Up to 5,930,016 Shares of Common Stock.
- PYPD: Form F-3 Filed — Up to 11,234,575 Ordinary Shares.
- MNTS: Form S-1.. Up to 1,500,000 Shares of Common Stock.
- RAPT: Form S-3.. 176,452,000 Shares of Common Stock.
- SYTA: Form F-1.. 2,739,296 Common Shares.
- VOR: Form S-3.. 125,710,335 Shares.
- Notes Priced:
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- ABTS: Form F-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf
- PIPE:
- Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
Biggest Movers Up & Down Last Week:
- Movers Up: NFLX +14.2%, SMTI +9.5%, ROKU +3.8%, UAL +3.6%, IBKR +3.2%, STX +2.5% of note.
- Movers Down: AGYS -17.8%, WTFC -11.3%, CASH -3.7%, PRGS -3.7%, SMBK -2.6% of note.
News After The Close:
- Activist Barrington Capital seeks board changes at Matthews (MATW).
- President Trump wanting to renegotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement before 2026 review. (WSJ)
- GVA awarded a contract worth approximately $71 mln by the United States Army Corps of Engineers to expand and update the rail yard at Fort Bliss in El Paso, TX.
- Netflix (NFLX) to raise lowest-priced ad-supported streaming option by $1 per month to $7.99 a month as well as higher priced subscriptions by $1 a month. (WSJ)
- Elon Musk says FTC’s concern over Microsoft’s (MSFT) OpenAI investment confirms Mr. Musk’s claims that the pact between the two is anticompetitive. (Bloomberg)
- IP set to win EU approval for its $7.12 bln purchase of DS Smith. (Reuters)
- Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) looking to sell around $9 bln of mortgages to comply with a new asset cap. (Bloomberg)
- Berkshire Hathaway’s Pilot Co to shutter international oil trading business. (Reuters)
- 10K or Qs Delays – none of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- LPRO announces that John J. Flynn, the company’s co-founder, retired from the Board of Directors on January 16, 2025; On January 17, 2025, Mr. Flynn agreed to serve as a consultant through the end of 2025.
- MASI appoints Katie Szyman as CEO; interim CEO Michelle Brennan named Chairman; both effective as of February 12.
Buybacks:
- DHX announces $5 mln stock repurchase program.
- HOMB increases share repurchase program to 20 mln shares.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: LOW DELL APA DNUT
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: CVS AGX VSEC LTC DX
- OGS increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.67/share from $0.66/share.
- CDRE increases quarterly cash dividend almost 9% to $0.095/share from $0.087/share.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:05 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +31, NASDAQ +205, Dow Jones +142 and Russell 2000 +. Europe is higher with Asia higher. Bonds are at 4.568% from 4.58% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold higher with Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $105,141 from $104,277 lower by $-1262 -1.22%. Additional Comments:
- Daily Positive Sectors: Industrials, Healthcare, Utilities, Real Estate and Materials.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Energy was lower.
- One Month Winners: None of note.
- Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
- Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Utilities and Industrials of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy, Healthcare, Communication Services, Materials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Wednesday After the Close:
- Thursday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: DHI +0.26, CBU +0.04, ONB +0.03, MMM +0.02, FBK +0.01, PEBO +0.01 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: FOR -0.38, EDU -0.08, UMC -0.04, KEY -0,03, FITB -0,03 of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support, bounced, made new lows and now is starting to bounce off that low.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: NFLX +15%, LNZA +12.7%, ORCL +8.9%, STX +5.3%, LPRO +4.8%, SMTI +4.7%, IBKR +4.7%, ROKU +4.4%, GLSI +4.4%, INBX +4.2%, FULT +4.2%, UAL +3.7%, APTV +3.4%, OGS +2.4% of note.
- Gap Down: AGYS -21.4%, USCB -9.2%, GEV -5.3%, CASH -4.9%, TXT -3.9%, CMA -3.6%, WTFC -3.4%, SFNC -3%, IAC -2.8%, PRGS -2.6%, IRON -2.5%, AVBP -2% of note.
Insider Action: None sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Lead Story on Bloomberg: Trump’s Sharp Turn For US Policy Faces A Slower Road in Congress. (Bloomberg)
- Market Wrap: Stocks march higher with Netflix poised for a record. (Bloomberg)
- 5 Things To Know Before the Market Opens. (CNBC)
- Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: . (CNBC)
- Procter & Gamble (PG) beats estimates and revenues. (CNBC)
- Trump lays out a sweeping energy agenda. (CNBC)
- Netflix (NFLX) posts record quarter thanks to sports and Squid Game. (Bloomberg)
- Bloomberg Big Take: The Second Trump Presidency brought to you by You Tubers. (Podcast)
Economic:
- December Leading Indicators are out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall back to 0.00% from 0.30%.
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications are out at 7:00 a.m. EDT.
- Weekly API Petroleum Report due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
- President Trump’s Daily Schedule yet to publish.
- Federal Reserve speakers are in the blackout period into next week’s FOMC meeting.
M&A Activity and News:
- .
Moving Average Table: Moves from 94% to 94%.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
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- Sellside Conferences:
- CIBC Western Institutional Investor Conference
- JP Morgan Hyper Growth Private Technology Company Conference
- Sidoti January Investor Conference
- Sidoti Micro Cap Conference
- Sellside Conferences:
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- Shareholder Meetings: AYI, MSM
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: AMIX, CDZI, ESPR
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- Petercam’s virtual healthcare conference
- Sequire Investor Summit
- SHOT Show
- World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
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- Upgrades: TIGO STX (2) NFLX (2) NDSN CRNX CRNC
- Downgrades: STM EDU
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