CAPIS Morning Note – 1/21/25: The Second Term of President Donald J. Trump Enters Day Two, Stocks Higher

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Friday higher by 1.00% at 5996.66. Thursday lower by -0.21% at 5937.34. Futures were higher on Monday and they did trade. The overnight high was hit at 6070.50 at 7:15 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5994.50 at 8:00 p.m. EDT. The overnight […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Friday higher by 1.00% at 5996.66. Thursday lower by -0.21% at 5937.34. Futures were higher on Monday and they did trade. The overnight high was hit at 6070.50 at 7:15 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5994.50 at 8:00 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 76 points. The current price is higher at 7:05 a.m by 0.30% up by +18.25 at 6051.75.

Executive Summary: The S&P 500 has fallen by -1% or more on two days so far this month. So we are clustering with multiple -1% losses. Chances are still high for losses of more than -1%. Though the longer we get away from the last loss of more than -1%, the better the odds we are through the turbulence. The last loss of more than -1.00% was on January 10th.

Articles of Note: Will return tomorrow as we get back into the flow.

*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted sources like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.

Key Events of Note Today:

- 3 & 6 Month Treasury auctions at 11:30 a.m. EDT.
- 52 Week Bill Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart in The Morning Note? Simply send an email to us at [email protected] and we will more than likely show it. Will return tomorrow as we get back into the flow.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close

Beats: BOKF +0.13 of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

IPOs For The Week: CRGT, FBGL, FCHL, FLOC, HXHX, SLGB,
TOPP
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
Secondaries Filed or Priced:
Notes Priced:
Direct Offering: None of note.
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- JXN files mixed shelf securities offering.
- ARQQ files $150 mln mixed shelf securities offering
- KULR files mixed shelf securities offering
PIPE:
Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down Last Week:

Movers Up: ITCI (126.25 +33.07%), SAGE (7.04 +26.85%), BPMC (109.62 +25.38%), RIGL (20.16 +24.06%), ATRC (38.73 +23.3%), SIBN (16.77 +22.23%), BGNE (210.06 +18.87%), NGVT (46.45 +22.22%), HEES (88.54 +101.55%), JELD (9.43 +21.83%),CVNA (229.62 +18.94%), CPS (15.66 +18.46%), LX (6.79 +20.09%), OZK (49.31 +18.22%), KLXE (6.66 +27.83%), MTRX (14.81 +23.07%) of note.
Movers Down: ATRA (6.75 -56.59%), MRNA (33.91 -19.74%), EVH (10.08 -19.62%), MYGN (12.34 -16.8%),FTAI (113.96 -34.51%), LOMA (10.81 -14.58%), FTAI (113.96 -34.51%), SIG (57.16 -25.41%), ANF (131.21 -18.46%), IRBT (8.7 -16.74%), GME (27.48 -14.95%), PLAY (24.30 -14.23%), JKS (21.12 -14.39%) of note.

News After The Close:

$8.7 Billion Defense Deal Highlights Israel’s Innovation, as Nukkleus (NUKK) Aligns with Growing Air Defense Momentum.
Moderna (MRNA) jumping by over +8% after the Department of Health and Human Services provides $590 mln in funding to the company to fast-tract mRNA vaccines targeting bird flu. (NBC)
Enersys (ENS) announces completion of contract and funding negotiations with the U.S. Department of Energy, securing $190 mln award to support construction of lithium-ion cell production facility.
Starbucks (SBUX) to have smaller support teams moving forward as it targets support job eliminations; will not affect in-store teams.
Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen sends a letter to Congressional Leadership on debt limit; extraordinary measures to begin on January 21. (Release)
LMT awarded $280 mln U.S. Navy contract modification.
TTEK agrees to pay the United States $57 million and $40 million for False Claims Act claims and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act claims.
Amazon (AMZN) halting drone deliveries after two of its models crashed in rainy weather at a testing facility. (Bloomberg)
10K or Qs Delays – none of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

DSX appoints Ms. Maria Dede as Co-CFO, effective immediately.
PTON appoints CEO Peter Stern to the Board.
CUBE COO Joel D. Keaton to retire, effective April 30.

Buybacks:

BMO receives approval to proceed with the previously announced NCIB to repurchase up to 20 mln common shares.

Dividends Announcements or News:

Stocks Ex Div Today: EOG GD WSM WSO FMX IEX RPM RVTY GGG NVT ENIC WDFC MGRC KWR DCOM OXM CBRL.
Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow:

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:10 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +24, NASDAQ +99, Dow Jones +199 and Russell 2000 +9.82. Europe is higher ex Germany with Asia higher ex China. Bonds are at 4.58% from 4.582% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold lower with Silver higher and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $104,277 from $102,578 higher by $474 +0.48%. Additional Comments:

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):

Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Materials and Consumer Defensive.
Daily Negative Sectors: Healthcare was lower.
One Month Winners: None of note.
Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Utilities and Industrials of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
Year to Date Winners: Energy, Healthcare, Communication Services, Materials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Tuesday After the Close:

Wednesday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

Beats: DHI +0.26, CBU +0.04, ONB +0.03, MMM +0.02, FBK +0.01, PEBO +0.01 of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: FOR -0.38, EDU -0.08, UMC -0.04, KEY -0,03, FITB -0,03 of note.
Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

Positive Guidance: of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support, bounced, made new lows and now is starting to bounce off that low.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

Gap Up: VATE +24.1%, POWW +16.7%, RDW +11.9%, NBTX +8.9%, VALN +8.7%, DHI +6.1%, QSI +5.8%, WKEY +5.8%, BTSG +5%, ARWR +4.8%, XCH +4.5%, MRNA +3.8%, KULR +2.2%, TTEK +2.2%, ARQQ +2%, MMM +2%of note.
Gap Down: EDU -12.9%, PEBO -6.4%, NVX -6.2%, FOR -5.3% of note.

Insider Action: None sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

Lead Story on Bloomberg: Trump Enters Day Two After Flurry of Executive Orders and Pardons. (Bloomberg)
Market Wrap: Stocks rise as threats over tariffs subside. (Bloomberg)
5 Things To Know Before the Market Opens. (CNBC)
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: AAPL, ROKU, MMM, MRNA, DHI and QRVO. (CNBC)
Bank of America CEO says financial industry will jump into crypto if regulators allow it. (CNBC)
Costco (COST) Union authorizes strike of 18,000 teamsters. (CNBC)
Trump to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada by February 1st. (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg Big Take: The Second Term of Trump begins. (Podcast)

Economic:

None of note today. All releases are Wednesday through Friday.

Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)

Today is the first full day of President Trump’s first full day in office.

Federal Reserve New York President John Williams speaks at 11:00 a.m. EDT.

M&A Activity and News:

Moving Average Table: Moves from 67% to 94%. Massive improvement across all asset classes.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

- Sellside Conferences:

- Shareholder Meetings: DLPN, EYEN, FTNT, MSTR
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: INDO, MNST, PEV, SCHW
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- Industry Meetings or Events:
  - Petercam’s virtual healthcare conference
  - Phacilitate Advanced Therapies Week
  - Sequire Investor Summit

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

- - Upgrades: GM GAP G ESS ELS
  - Downgrades: MOS FRSH AAPL