Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -0.21% at 5937.34. Wednesday higher by 1.83% at 5949.91. Three up days in a row before yesterday’s down day. Bouncing back this morning. The overnight high was hit at 5999 at 4:25 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5961.75 at 4:20 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 38 points. The current price is higher at 7:20 a.m by 0.17% up by +10 at 5913.
Executive Summary: The S&P 500 has fallen by -1% or more on two days so far this month. So we are clustering with multiple -1% losses. Chances are still high for losses of more than -1%.
Articles of Note:
*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted sources like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.
Key Events of Note Today:
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- Out today two releases (2 monthly and 1 weekly!). Details in Economic Section.
Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart in The Morning Note? Simply send an email to us at [email protected] and we will more than likely show it.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: OZK +0.12 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: WAFD -0.11, JBHT -0.09 of note.
- IPOs For The Week: CRGT, FBGL, FCHL, FLOC, HXHX, SLGB,
TOPP - New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
- Flowco (FLOC) is now trading. It opened at $29 and closed at $29.70.A good first day of trading.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- QTI: Form S-1.. 8,807,116 Shares of Common Stock
- Notes Priced: ABL: $72,727,075 Aggregate Principal Amount of
9.875% Fixed Rate Senior Notes due 2028 - Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- ABL files for 9,213,735 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholders
- LIDR: Form S-1.. Up to 5,353,710 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- WULF files mixed shelf securities offering
- PIPE:
- Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:
- Movers Up: RIVN +5%, PLUG +3.3%, QGEN +2.9% of note.
- Movers Down: JBHT -7.7%, WAFD -6.4%, BAM -2.4%, of note.
News After The Close:
- META unchanged after CTO states that the company mishandled introducing new content policies. (The Information)
- BSKY selected by National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency as one of the vendors for the $200 million Luno B commercial data contract.
- FTC taking action against GM for sharing drivers’ location and driving data without consent.
- RIVN closes its loan agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office for up to $6.6 billion in financial support for the construction of its next manufacturing facility in Stanton Springs North.
- PLUG closes $1.66 bln loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy.
- LYFT mostly unchanged after winning a dismissal of a shareholder lawsuit over an earnings report error.
- 10K or Qs Delays – none of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- MGRC announces appointment of Philip B. Hawkins to Chief Operating Officer.
- BAM names Bruce Flatt as Chair of the Board of Directors, in addition to his role as CEO; replaces Mark Carney, who announced his candidacy for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada.
- MAT announces planned retirement of CFO Anthony DiSilvestro, effective May 15; co has initiated search process for his replacement.
- EYE CFO Melissa Rasmussen to depart, effective February 26.
- BCC appoints Jeff Strom as new COO, effective Jan 20.
- MWA announces appointment of Melissa Rasmussen as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective March 4, 2025.
- Aeva to transfer the listing of its common stock to the Nasdaq from the NYSE; to continue trading under the same symbol.
Buybacks:
- QGEN provides details for completion of synthetic share repurchase plan to return up to $300 mln.
- OTIS authorizes $2 billion for share repurchase.
- RC approves repurchase program for up to $150 mln.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: EOG GD WSM WSO FMX IEX RPM RVTY GGG NVT ENIC WDFC MGRC KWR DCOM OXM CBRL
- Stocks Ex Div Monday: None as markets closed.
- VLO increases quarterly cash dividend to $1.13/share from $1.07/share.
- ED increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.85/share form $0.83/share.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:10 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +24, NASDAQ +117, Dow Jones +173 and Russell 2000 +11.21. Europe is higher with Asia lower ex Hong Kong and Shanghai. Bonds are at 4.582% from 4.69% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are mixed with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $102,578 from $99,102 higher by $2082 +2.07%. Additional Comments: NASDAQ Indexes did finally participate with the other indexes.
- Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials, Consumer Defensive and Financials were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Technology and Consumer Cyclicals were lower.
- One Month Winners: None of note.
- Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
- Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Utilities and Industrials of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy, Healthcare, Communication Services, Materials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Friday After the Close: BOKF
- Tuesday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: STT +0.16, WBS +0.08, CFG +0.03, HBAN +0.03, TFC +0.03, SLB +0.02, RF +0.01 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: FAST -0.02 of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support, bounced, made new lows and now is starting to bounce off that low.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: WULF +4.4%, RIVN +3.2%, BKSY +2.8%, CXW +2.7% of note.
- Gap Down: ABL -17.2%, JBHT -11.1%, RF -5.8%, AEVA -3.2%, FIGS -2.5%, EYE -2.2%, ED -2% of note.
Insider Action: PBF sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Lead Story on Bloomberg: Trump Tariff Threat Has Already Panicked The Junk Bond Market. (Bloomberg)
- Market Wrap: U.S. Futures higher as Fed Rate Cut bets revive. (Bloomberg)
- 5 Things To Know Before the Market Opens. (CNBC)
- Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: . (CNBC)
- SpaceX’s Starship breaks up after takeoff later yesterday. (CNBC)
- 10-Year continues to fall off 14 month high. (CNBC)
- Bloomberg Big Take: Bessent’s MAGA and Wall Street. (Podcast)
Economic:
- December Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 1,318,000 from 1,289,000 in November.
- December Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 0.30% from -0.10%.
- Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
- President Biden receives the President’s Daily Brief at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
- President Biden heads into his last weekend as the president. Thanks for your service.
- Federal Reserve New York President John Williams speaks at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
M&A Activity and News:
- .
Moving Average Table: Moves from 80% to 67%.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
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- Sellside Conferences:
- Evercore ISI Retail & Consumer
- JP Morgan Healthcare Conference
- Needham Growth Conference
- Sellside Conferences:
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- Shareholder Meetings: FOXO, INKT, LAAC, LUXH, REVB
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: AMGN
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- North American International Auto Show in Detroit
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
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- Upgrades: ITUB UGP SAP NET MLTX LIF CRM
- Downgrades: LUV JBLU
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