Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 1.83% at 5949.91. Tuesday higher by 0.11% at 5842.91. Monday higher by 0.16% at 5836.22. Is there a trend here? The overnight high was hit at 6017.50 at 3:00 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5983 at 12:35 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 34 points. The current price is higher at 8:20 a.m by 0.17% up by +10 at 5913.
Executive Summary: Stocks got hit hard into the open on Monday but recovered by the end of the day. Tuesday can be summed up as a sloppy day. Wednesday was a quick meltup after the CPI data. We have had two days in January where the S&P 500 has fallen by -1% or more. So we are clustering with multiple -1% losses. Not great despite yesterday.
Articles of Note: After yesterday’s CPI data I thought it made sense to post Brian Wesbury’s note on the CPI data. It is not what the market thinks. FYI, I met Brian in 1988 when I worked at CAPIS and have followed him since. He is right on track with this piece.
*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted sources like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.
Key Events of Note Today:
-
- Out today multiple releases (4 monthly and 2 weekly!!). Details in Economic Section.
Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart in The Morning Note? Simply send an email to us at [email protected] and we will more than likely show it.
Sabine Royalty Trust (SBR) is a new Short Squeeze. The shorts have been increasing their bet over the last three months. Note the Technical Rank has improved to 80% and the Erlanger Short Intensity is 100% with an Erlanger Short Ratio of 2.19.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: CNXC +0.25, SNV +0.10 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: FUL -0.08, HOMB -0.02 of note.
- IPOs For The Week: CRGT, FBGL, FCHL, FLOC, HXHX, SLGB,
TOPP - New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
- Flowco (FLOC) prices 17.8 mln share IPO at $24.00 per share, above the $21-$23 expected price range, for total gross proceeds of $427.2 mln.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- SDST files for 4,646,840 shares of common stock offering; relates to warrants.
- Notes Priced:
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- CLLS files for 44,000,000 ordinary shares, including in the form of ADSs, offering by selling shareholder.
- BBAI files for 161,676,020 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholders.
- MNPR files for 882,761 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholder.
- PANL: Form S-3.. 18,359,342 Common Shares Offered by the Selling Shareholder
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- CEAD: Form S-3.. $60,000,000 Mixed Shelf
- MBIO: FORM S-1 – Mixed Shelf Offering
- TCTM: Form F-3.. $85,000,000 Mixed Shelf
- PIPE:
- Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:
- Movers Up: SEZL +11.7%, TALO +5.2%, SLDB +5.1%, IBRX +4.6%, BBAI +4.1%, EVH +2.1% of note.
- Movers Down: HOMB -6.4%, CNXC -4.7%, FUL -2.7%, OEC -2.7%, SNAP -2.4%, of note.
News After The Close:
- EVH reiterates its long-term outlook in investor presentation.
- FDA approves Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Omvoh(mirikizumab-mrkz) for Crohn’s disease, expanding its use to the second major type of inflammatory bowel disease.
- DuPont (DD) provides separation plan update; reiterates Q4 guidance.
- President-Elect Trump mulls executive order to suspend enforcement of the TikTok ban. (The Washington Post)
- Rio Tinto (RIO) releases Q4 production levels. (Press Release)
- Talos Energy (TALO) Katmai West #2 well located in the Ewing Bank area of the U.S Gulf of Mexico successfully encountered commercial quantities of oil and natural gas.
- Duolingo (DUOL) noted an over 200% jump in U.S. users learning Chinese due to pending TikTok ban and shift to RedNote. (Tech Crunch)
- Block (SQ) to pay $80 mln for insufficient money laundering controls. (Reuters)
- 10K or Qs Delays – none of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- BBAI appoints Kevin McAleenan as CEO, effective today; succeeds Mandy Long, who is stepping down.
Buybacks:
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: ACN EME CMC ALG CODI
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: EOG GD WSM WSO FMX IEX RPM RVTY GGG NVT ENIC WDFC MGRC KWR DCOM OXM CBRL
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:30 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +3, NASDAQ +44, Dow Jones -111 and Russell 2000 -8.39. Europe is higher with Asia higher. Bonds are at 4.69% from 4.76% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $99,100 from $96.945 lower by $691 -0.76%. Additional Comments: NASDAQ Indexes did finally participate with the other indexes.
- Daily Positive Sectors: Financials, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Technology and Utilities were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: None were lower.
- One Month Winners: None of note.
- Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
- Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Utilities and Industrials of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy, Healthcare, Communication Services, Materials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Thursday After the Close:
- Friday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: PNC +0.44, MTB +0.17, UNH +0.08, BAC +0.05, FHN +0.04, USB +0.02 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: IIIB -0.04 of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: TSM, SEZL, of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: CNXC, FUL, OEC of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support, bounced, made new lows and now is starting to bounce off that low.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: DOYU +22.2%, SEZL +18.3%, BBAI +16.2%, AZUL +10.6%, TALO +9.4%, TSM +4.9%, IBRX +4.6%, CDRE +4.3%, DUOL +4.1%, ORLA +3.8%, DD +2.4%, RKLB +2.4%, PAAS +2.3%, ARMN +2.1%,of note.
- Gap Down: FUL -4.3%, UNH -3.6%, PSO -3.5%, CNXC -3.2%, HOMB -3.1%, PRTH -2.5%, SNAP -2.4% of note.
Insider Action: None see Insider buying with dumb short selling. RNAC and TTSH see Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Lead Story on Bloomberg: Israel Accuses Hamas of Putting Gaza Ceasefire At Risk . (Bloomberg)
- Market Wrap: U.S. Futures off high with Retail Sales ahead. (Bloomberg)
- Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: Not out yet, check back. (CNBC)
- Bank of Korea leaves rates unchanged at 3%. (CNBC)
- BP to cut 5% of workforce. (Bloomberg)
- Bloomberg Big Take: After Ceasefire what is next for Gaza? (Podcast)
Economic:
- December Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to come in at 0.5% from 0.7% in November.
- At the same time, the January Philadelphia Fed Index is due out and expected to improve to -6.0% from -16.40%.
- December Import/Export Prices are due at 8:30 a.m. EDT as well and came in last month at 0.1% and 0.0%.
- Last, at 10:00 a.m. EDT January NAHB Housing Market Index is due out and expected to fall to 45 from 46.
- Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
- Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
- President Biden receives the President’s Daily Brief at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
- President Biden heads to the Department of Defense Commander in Chief Farewell Ceremony at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
- Federal Reserve New York President John Williams speaks at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
M&A Activity and News:
- .
Moving Average Table: Moves from 40% to 80%. Other asset classes improved nicely yesterday as well.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
-
- Sellside Conferences:
- Evercore ISI Retail & Consumer
- JP Morgan Healthcare Conference
- Needham Growth Conference
- Raymond James Private Data Center Symposium
- TD Securities Annual Global Mining Conference
- Sellside Conferences:
-
- Shareholder Meetings: DHI, MU, NBY, OPTT, SCPX
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: ASPI, AVD, CODI, PODC, PSNY
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: ATRA: PDUFA Decision for Tab-cel (tabelecleucel)
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- Mining Conference
- North American International Auto Show in Detroit
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
-
-
- Upgrades: AZUL T ZGN UPS PCTY OWL NFLX MNDY FSLR DAN CNI CACI BL
- Downgrades: EW NOK LUV BALL
-
