Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.11% at 5842.91. Monday higher by 0.16% at 5836.22. The overnight high was hit at 5903.50 at 6:50 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5879.50 at 3:00 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 24 points. The current price is higher at 8:20 a.m by 0.17% up by +10 at 5913.
Executive Summary: Stocks got hit hard into the open on Monday but recovered by the end of the day. Tuesday can be summed up as a sloppy day. We have had two days where the S&P 500 has fallen by -1% or more. So we are clustering with multiple -1% losses. Not great. This morning we get CPI data and let’s see how markets react.
Articles of Note:
*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted sources like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.
Key Events of Note Today:
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- Out today CPI, Empire State Manufacturing and Weekly Crude Oil Inventores. Details in Economic Section.
- The latest Beige Book is out at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart in The Morning Note? Simply send an email to us at [email protected] and we will more than likely show it.
JP Morgan (JPM) is a Short Squeeze that beat earnings estimates this morning. The shorts have been increasing their bet over the last year. Note the Technical Rank has improved to 80% and the Erlanger Short Intensity is 92% with an Erlanger Short Ratio of 3.33. Yesterday the company announced strong membership growth.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: APLD +0.08 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: CVGW -0.25 of note.
- IPOs For The Week: ALEH, CRGT, DGNX, DXST, FBGL, SKBL,
SLGB, ZYBT - New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- NNE files for 2,500,002 shares of common stock; relates to warrants.
- AZTR Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.
- KZIA Closing of $2.0 Million Registered Direct Offering.
- SISI: FORM S-3 – 15,000,000 Shares of Common Stock
- Notes Priced:
- BBCP – Upsizing and Pricing of Its Senior Secured Second Lien Notes Offering
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- BHLB files for 3,448,275 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholders.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- PIPE:
- Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
- MU: Form 424B5.. offering $1,000,000,000 5.80% Senior Notes due 2035
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:
- Movers Up: LOT +6.4%, PL +3.3%, of note.
- Movers Down: VCEL -11%, CVGW -8.6%, LASR -6.2%, PI -4.9%, DHT -4.9%, BHLB -4.2%, APLD -2.2% of note.
News After The Close:
- Discover Financial (DIS) sees charge off rate at 2.55% at the end of December.
- BAESY awarded $85 mln U.S. Navy production contract.
- South Korea arrested impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol.
- Super Micro (SMCI) showcases latest solutions for retail industry with NVIDIA (NVDA) at National Retail Federation annual show.
- DHT provides business update, estimating Q4 time charter equivalent earnings for its fleet at $38,800 per day.
- Intel (INTC) to separate Intel Capital, its global venture capital arm, into a standalone fund.
- Kennametal (KMT) announces three to five plant closures by the end of FY27; initiates headcount reduction.
- Deere (DE) notes U.S. Federal Trade Commission prepares lawsuit against company, claiming its agricultural equipment repair practices violate competitive laws.
- Supreme Court declines to hear a bid by Sunoco (SUN) and other oil companies to end Honolulu lawsuit. (Reuters)
- Microsoft (MSFT) to lay off employees on security, sales, and gaming teams separate from performance cut. (Business Insider)
- Bayer AG expects its pharmaceutical business to return to growth in 2027 supported by the launch of new therapies. (WSJ)
- SEC sues Elon Musk over filing on Twitter shares, missed by ten days. (Bloomberg)
- 10K or Qs Delays – none of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- AQN announces departure of CFO Darren Myers as he elects to pursue another leadership opportunity, replacement search to be conducted.
Buybacks:
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: ABBV ABT PNC FCX MAA PECO ACA MSM TRN BKE GTX CHCO WGO ARR
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: ACN EME CMC ALG CODI
- BUSE raises its quarterly dividend by 4.2% to $0.25/share.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:10 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +20 , NASDAQ +82, Dow Jones +201 and Russell 2000 . Europe is higher with Asia higher ex China. Bonds are at 4.76% from 4.792% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $96.945 from $96,035 higher by $440 up 0.46%. Additional Comments: NASDAQ Indexes did not again participate with the other indexes.
- Daily Positive Sectors: Financials, Utilities, Industrials, Materials, Energy and Real Estate were higher on Friday.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Healthcare, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical and Consumer Defensive were lower.
- One Month Winners: None of note.
- Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
- Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Utilities and Industrials of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy, Healthcare, Communication Services, Materials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Wednesday After the Close:
- Thursday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: GS +3.72, JPM +0.72, BLK +0.69, BK +0.18, WFC +0.08 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: None of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: APD of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: LASR VCEL of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support, bounced and is now making new lows. Not the direction we want this to go if long stocks.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: IGT +7.6%, TIGO +6.7%, LOT +6.4%, BBCP +5.5%, PONY +3.3%, BLK +2.8%, PL +2.1%, KARO +2.1% of note.
- Gap Down: VCEL -8.1%, APLD -6.1%, CVGW -4.8%, LASR -4.3%, EVTL -3.2%, BUSE -2.7%, GPRK -2.2% of note.
Insider Action: LW and AVDL see Insider buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Lead Story on Bloomberg: Goldman Surpasses Estimates as Stock Traders Score Record Haul. (Bloomberg)
- Market Wrap: US Bank earnings lift stocks ahead of CPI. (Bloomberg)
- Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: GS JPM BLK RGTI QBTS C (CNBC)
- MBA Mortgage Applications rose 33% week over week.
- Edison International (EIX) decision to keep power lines active during windstorm is being questioned. (Bloomberg)
- Senator Joni Ernest (R-IA) says she will vote to confirm Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary, which all but assures his confirmation. (NBC News)
- Bloomberg Big Take: How long can Toyota put off figuring out EVs. (Podcast)
Economic:
- December CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 0.3% from 0.30% in November.
- At the same time, January Empire State Manufacturing Index is due out at the same time and expected to fall to -2.0 from -0.2.
- Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
- President Biden receives the President’s Daily Brief at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
- Press Briefing at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
- President Biden delivers his farwell address to the nation at 8:00 p.m. EDT.
- Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
- Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
- Federal Reserve New York President John Williams speaks at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
- Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks at 12:00 a.m. EDT.
- Last, the latest Fed Beige Book is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
M&A Activity and News:
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Moving Average Table: Moves from 20% to 40%.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
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- Sellside Conferences:
- CJS ‘New Ideas for the New Year’ Investor Conference
- Evercore ISI Retail & Consumer
- JP Morgan Healthcare Conference
- Needham Growth Conference
- TD Securities Annual Global Mining Conference
- UBS Winter Infrastructure & Energy/Utilities Conference
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: AITX, ASPI, ATRA
- Sellside Conferences:
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- Shareholder Meetings: BNGO, CRKN, PAVM, VRPX
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: ATRA: PDUFA Decision for Tab-cel (tabelecleucel)
- Company Event: None of note.
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- Biotech Showcase
- ICR Conference
- LifeSci Partners Corporate Access Event
- North American International Auto Show in Detroit
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
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- Upgrades: SHYF SAP NWE DLR CSR
- Downgrades: INTU
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