Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The stock market was closed for Former President James Earl Carter’s State Funeral. The S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.16% at 5918.25. Tuesday lower by -1.11% at 5909.03. Futures did trade Wednesday night and Thursday during market hours see News After The Close. The overnight high was hit at 5959.25 at 6:10 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5920.25 at 7:15 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 39 points. The current price is higher at 7:10 a.m by +0.04% up by +2.25 at 5947.
Executive Summary: ADP Payrolls slowed to 122,000 from estimates of 131,000 which could help rates to drop a bit from its recent peak. Can Monthly Nonfarm Payrolls add to the reversal off the peak on rates? 155,000 jobs are expected.
Articles of Note:“California’s Wildfire Insurance Catastrophe” by Wall Street Journal Editorial Board
*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted source like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.
Key Events of Note Today:
-
- Nonfarm Payrolls i.e. the Monthly Jobs Report and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment are due out along with the Weekly Baker Hughes Report.
- There is a 30-Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart in The Morning Note? Simply send an email to us at [email protected] and we will more than likely show it.
Energy names have struggled. However, Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) is a Short Squeeze, in a sector of Long Squeezes. Note the Technical Rank has improved to 80% and the Erlanger Short Intensity is 91% with an Erlanger Short Ratio of 5.11.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: GBX +0.56, PENG +0.10 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: PSMT -0.10, JEF -0.06 of note.
- IPOs For The Week: ALEH, CRGT, DGNX, DXST, FBGL, SKBL,
SLGB, ZYBT - New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- AWH: Form S-1.. Up to 16,000,000 Shares of Common Stock
- AMST Announces Closing of Public Offering
- Notes Priced:
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- PIPE: QUBT – Private Placement of Common Stock for Proceeds of $100 Million
- Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:
- Movers Up: PENG +15.3%, DBVT +8.9%, RMAX +7.5% , GMED +3.3%, COST +2% of note.
- Movers Down: AVDL -24.2%, PSMT -6.2%, ARHS -4%, MRVI -3% of note.
News After The Close:
- DBVT announces positive 3-year results from EPITOPE Phase 3 open-label extension study.
- NDAQ reports December 2024 volumes and Q4 statistics; U.S. equity options volume totaled 299 mln contracts for December.
- COST reports December adjusted comparable sales of +9.9%.
- VLRS reports December 2024 Traffic Results: load factor of 88%.
- DIS is climbing after estimating its ad-supported tiers have 157 mln global MAUs. (CNBC)
- NVDA down over -1% after the Biden administration plans additional round of restrictions on AI chip exports. (Bloomberg)
- LMT awarded $678 mln U.S. Navy contract modification.
- RTX awarded $333 mln U.S. Navy contract.
- Thursday morning futures saw S&P 500 lower by -23 and NASDAQ lower by -81. 10-year yield fell to 4.66%.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- MRAM appoints William Cooper as CFO, effective Jan 6.
- HNST CFO Dave Loretta will retire this year; initiated search for replacement; reiterates FY24 outlook.
- EG CEO Juan C. Andrade steps down to go run USAA; Jim Williamson appointed as acting CEO, effective immediately.
- FWONA Liberty Media names Derek Chang as President and CEO, effective February 1, 2025.
- GMRE CEO Jeffrey Busch to transition to non-executive Chariman, board initiates a search process for a new CEO.
- NHI appoints Robert A. McCabe, Jr. as Board Chair, effective immediately; follows recent retirement of W. Andrew Adams on December 31, 2024.
- SPHR appoints Robert Langer as CFO, effective January 13.
- AGI appoints Robert Prichard as Chair of the Board, effective immediately.
- HOG announces promotion of Jonathan Root to President, Commercial but maintains position as the CFO. 1/9
Buybacks:
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: CMCSA GAP GNTX MAIN IDCC
- Stocks Ex Div Monday:
- JEF declared a quarterly cash dividend equal to $0.40 per Jefferies common share, a 14.3% increase from the prior dividend rate.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:10 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 -10, NASDAQ -39, Dow Jones -38 and Russell 2000 -5.86. Europe is higher ex the FTSE with Asia lower. Bonds are at 4.698% from 4.70% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $94, 841 from $95,095 higher by $3072 up +3.38%.
- Daily Positive Sectors: Materials, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Industrials were higher Wednesday.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Energy, Utilities, Technology and Consumer Cyclicals were lower.
- One Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical and Technology of note.
- Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services and Financials of note.
- Six Month Winners: Financials, Utilities, Consumer Cyclical,Technology and Utiltities of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Financials, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Utilities and Communication Services note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy, Utilities, Technology, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Friday After the Close: WDFC
- Monday Before The Open: None of note
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: WBA +0.13, NEOG +0.12, DAL +0.09, SNX +0.04, TLRY +0.03 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: STZ -0.06 of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: NEOG, GBX of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support, bounced and is now making new lows. Not the direction we want this to go if long stocks.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: DTIL +32.9%, DBVT +25.8%, MRSN +23.1%, ABOS +17.6%, PENG +17.5%, MRAM +14.4%, CCO +12.2%, DYN +11.7%, BBCP +10.8%, ARHS +9.6%, ZNTL +7.9%, CVEO +7.1%, QBTS +6.8%, TUYA +6.6%, FVR +5.9%, RAPP +5.4%, TLSI +4.6%, DAL +4.5%, RIGL +4.1%, QTRX +4.1%, ABVX +3.9%, ZLAB +3.9%, PECO +3.2%, RKLB +3.1%, SPHR +3%, NVO +2.9%, TGB +2.8%, GMED +2.8%, NVX +2.6%, COST +2.5%, SCM +2.5%, IPHA +2.2%, GBX +2.2%, BDSX +2% of note.
- Gap Down: IGMS -68.7%, AVDL -26%, IMOS -7.9%, PSMT -5.1%, AMLX -4.8%, MODV -4.6%, NTLA -3.5%, GATO -2.8%, CTNM -2.7%, JEF -2.7%, EIX -2.4% of note.
Insider Action: LFCR and FBK see Insider buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Lead Story on Bloomberg: LA Fire Crews Make Strides In Fighting Blazes as Toll Climbs. (Bloomberg)
- Market Wrap: Stocks fall as traders take cover before payrolls. (Bloomberg)
- 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
- Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: Not reported yet, check back. (CNBC)
- Wayfair (W) to exit Germany and focus on physical stores. (CNBC)
- Delta (DAL) looks to 2025 as its “best year”. (CNBC)
- Bloomberg Big Take: Wildfires, Insurance collide in LA. (Podcast)
Economic:
- December Nonfarm Payrolls are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 140,000 from 194,000 in November.
- January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 73.50 from 74.
- Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
- President Biden receives the President’s Daily Brief at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
- President Biden and Vice President Harris meet with key officials at 11:30 a.m. EDT on the response to the California fires.
- Press Briefing at 1:30 p.m. EDT with Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.
- No Federal Reserve speakers of note.
M&A Activity and News:
- Constellation Energy (CEG) to buy Calpine for $16.4 billion.
Moving Average Table: Moves from 33% positive to 36%.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
-
- Sellside Conferences:
- Seaport Research Partners Second Annual Steel & Metals Conference
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: DYN, NMTC, TSM
- Sellside Conferences:
-
- Shareholder Meetings: GWAV, SENS
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- Company Event: None of note.
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- MASH-TAG 2025 Conference
- CES Show
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
-
-
- Upgrades: COLL LULU PINS EQH CSX CRBG CPRI CNI BURL BOOT ANF
- Downgrades: HIMS BIGC
-
