CAPIS Morning Note – 1/03/25: Can S&P 500 Break A Five Day Losing Streak?

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.22% at 5868.55. Markets were closed on Wednesday. Tuesday lower by -0.43% at 5881.63. The overnight high was hit at 5941.75 at 4:25 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5911.25 at 6:45 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 30 points. […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.22% at 5868.55. Markets were closed on Wednesday. Tuesday lower by -0.43% at 5881.63. The overnight high was hit at 5941.75 at 4:25 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5911.25 at 6:45 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 30 points. The current price is higher at 7:05 a.m higher by +0.20% up by +12 at 5928.50.

Executive Summary: Last Tuesday started the Santa Claus Rally that lasts from the Tuesday before Christmas through the first two trading days of January, this Friday. So far we are down -1.05% with one trading day left. Looks like Santa Claus brought coal to Wall Street. What are the implications for this? We will offer up some comments on Monday once the final numbers are in.

Article of Note: “The Best Predictions For 25 Are About 24” by Justin Fox. (Bloomberg)

Key Events of Note Today:

- ISM Manufacturing and Natural Gas Inventories will be released this morning. Baker Hughes Rig Count is out in the afternoon.

Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart in The Morning Note? Simply send an email to us at [email protected] and we will more than likely show it.

Carvana (CVNA) is a now a Short Correct. The Tech Rank has fallen to 30%. Short Intensity is 61% with the Erlanger Short Ratio at 2.64. The company is in a fight with Hindenberg Research over its accounting. Looks like the shorts knew this was coming.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close

Beats: RGP +0.18 of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

IPOs For The Week:
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note. Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- DTI: FORM S-3 – 888,041 shares of Common Stock.
- RDZN: Pricing of Offering.. 2,222,300 ordinary shares @$2.25.
Notes Priced:
Direct Offering: None of note.
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:
- DTI files for 888,041 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholders.
- GGAL files for 11,382,161 American Depositary Shares offering by selling shareholder.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
PIPE:
Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:

Movers Up: RGP +3.1%, LFCR +2.1% of note.
Movers Down: ASTL -2% of note.

News After The Close:

Biden Administration considering rule to limit or ban Chinese drones in the U.S. (Bloomberg)
CVNA calls short allegations by Hindenburg Research intentionally misleading and inaccurate. (NY Post)
NOC awarded $481 mln U.S. Army contract.
10-K Delays: None of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

WGS appoints Bryan Dechairo as COO, effective immediately.
UDR promotes Mike Lacy to COO; appoints CFO Joe Fisher to additional role of CIO; company initiating search for new CFO.
PNTG appoints Brent Guerisoli as Chairman of its board of directors and Scott Lamb as Lead Independent Director of its board of directors, each effective January 1, 2025.
DCBO announced that Sukaran Mehta will be stepping down as Chief Financial Officer to accept an undisclosed leadership role in a private equity portfolio company.

Buybacks:

NLY authorizes new share repurchase program of up to $1.5 bln; expires on December 31, 2029

Dividends Announcements or News:

Stocks Ex Div Today: CSCO AXP BMY ROP KDP SYY NTAP MORN ORI RGLD BRX CHX CUZ HLIO TWO.
Stocks Ex Div Monday: JPM XEL OC GL OGE MTCH THO OPRA SLVM.
OZK increases quarterly cash dividend 2.44% to $0.42/share from $0.41/share.
ALG increases its quarterly dividend to $0.30/sh from $0.26/sh.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:15 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +48, NASDAQ +215, Dow Jones +301 and Russell 2000 +23. Europe is higher ex France with Asia higher ex Japan. Bonds are at 4.52% unchanged from Tuesday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. Natural Gas is up 16.17% today!! Gold and Silver are higher with Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $96,713 from $94,571 higher by $2,155 up +2.28%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):

Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Utilities, Communication Services, Healthcare and Technology were higher yesterday.
Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate, Industrials and Consumer Defensive were lower.
One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Financials, Industrials, Energy and Utilities of note.
Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Financials, Communication Services, Industrials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Technology of note.
Six Month Winners: Financials, Real Estate, Utilities, Consumer Cyclical and Technology of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Financials, Technology, Industrials, Utilities and Communication Services note.
Year to Date Winners: Technology, Financials, Utilities, Communication Services and Industrials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Friday After the Close: None of note.

Monday Before The Open: CMC of note.

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

Beats: None of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: None of note.
Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

Positive Guidance: None of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support, bounced and is now falling again.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

Gap Up: SLRN +13%, NUS +12.8%, LFCR +7.4%, RDZN +4.4%, PINE +3.7%, WGS +3%, MRC +3%, UDR +2.7%, DCBO +2%, OZK +2% of note.
Gap Down: PNTG -8.1%, FFIE -7.6%, ASTL -6.5%, CVNA -3.5%, LAES -3%, NNBR -2.2% of note.

Insider Action: None see Insider buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

Lead Story on Bloomberg: FBI Says Attacks Were Not Coordinated. (Bloomberg)
Market Wrap: US Futures look to rise after 5 day losing streak on the S&P 500. (Bloomberg)
5 Things To Know Before Market Opens. (CNBC)
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves Check back later as not out yet. (CNBC)
U.S. House Speaker Johnson feels he will be reelected by Saturday.
President Biden looks to be killing the deal between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel.
Barrons Stories of Note: + on GOOGL NVDA CZR and +/- on CMCSA.
NYSE to close next Thursday, January 9th for Former President James Earl Carter’s state funeral in Washington D.C. (CNBC)

Economic:

December ISM Manufacturing is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise by 48.5% from 48.4%.
Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)

President Biden hosts a Medal of Valor Ceremony at 12:00 p.m. EDT in the Oval Office. Closed to the press.
There is a Press Briefing at 1:15 p.m. EDT with Karine Jean-Pierre.
President Biden delivers remarks at a Medal of Honor Ceremony at 5:00 p.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks at 5:30 p.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Governor Adrianna Kugler speaks also at 5:30 p.m. EDT>

M&A Activity and News: SPSC to acquire Carbon6 Technologies, Inc. for approximately $210 mln.

Moving Averages On Major Equity Indexes: Equities move from 27% to 20%. Ugly!

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

- Sellside Conferences:
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: DAL

- Shareholder Meetings: GCTK, IKT, MOBX
- Update: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- Company Event: None of note.
- Industry Meetings or Events:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

- - Upgrades: SRZN LVS FNF BYD
  - Downgrades: