CAPIS Morning Note – 09/21/23: Selloff Continues, Stocks Lower As 10 Year Yield Climbs to 4.41%. Cisco to Buy Splunk.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday lower by -0.94% at 4402.20 from Tuesday lower by -0.22% at 4443.95. The overnight high was hit at 4447.75 at 4:35 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4411.50 at 7:25 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 36 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at […]

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday lower by -0.94% at 4402.20 from Tuesday lower by -0.22% at 4443.95. The overnight high was hit at 4447.75 at 4:35 p.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4411.50 at 7:25 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 36 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 19.50 from 20  down from a peak of 31.50 on 8/15.  The average for May-August average was 21.10 from 18.81 in May through July and the August average was 26.21. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -35 points which is -0.78% at  7:25 a.m. EDT.

Breaking News: Cisco to buy Splunk for $28 billion. (CNBC)

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: FDX +0.84, KBH +0.37 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Broad Capital Acquisition Corp (BRAC) Confirms Funding to Extend Period to Consummate Initial Business Combination to October 13, 2023.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ALAR: Filed Form F-3.. Up to 2,971,225 American Depositary Shares Representing Ordinary Shares.
    • AQST: Filed Form S-3.. 2,750,000 Shares of Common Stock
    • BIAF: Filed Form S-1.. up to 3,086,419 units.
    • TRNS: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (Opp. Bookmanager)
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • CTG: Cegeka and CTG Announce Extension of Tender Offer for All Outstanding Shares of CTG.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • ICCT: Files for 74,420,908 shares of common stock; also files for 15,089,966 shares of series A preferred stock; relates to warrants.
    • NUWE: Filed Form S-1.. Files to sell units and convertible preferred stock.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: IVA +11%, AXTI +6%, FDX 5.2% of note.
    • Trading Down: TRNS -7% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Enovix (ENVX) to buy South Korean battery maker in cash and stock deal. (MarketWatch)
    • GlobalFoundries (GFS) awarded $3.127 billion U.S. Defense Microelectronics Activity 10-year ordering period contract.
    • ICFI: U.S. Department of the Interior Awards ICF New $30 Million Ceiling Workforce Modernization BPA.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Borqs Technologies (BRQS) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Market Value Deficiency.
    • Central Garden (CENT) CEO Tim Cofer to step down.
    • D.R. Horton (DHI) promotes Paul Romanowski to CEO. (MarketWatch)
    • Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK) Names New Chief Financial Officer.
    • Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) appoints Tim Cofer as COO.
    • micromobility.com Inc. (MCOM) Announces Leadership Transition to Drive Profitable Growth.
    • Societal CDMO (SCTL) Announces Corporate Restructuring.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) approves stock repurchase program of up to $25 million of shares.
    • FedEx (FDX) to repurchase additional $1.5 billion of stock during FY24.
    • Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Expands Common Stock Repurchase Authorization by 63% to $650 Million.
    • Powerbridge Technologies Co., Ltd. (PBTS) Announces Share Consolidation.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Permianville Royalty Trust (PVL) Announces Special Cash Distribution of Net Proceeds from Permian Basin Divestiture.
    • Starbucks (SBUX) Announces Increase in Quarterly Cash Dividend.
  • Insider Sales Of Note:
    • Guidewire (GWRE) CEO Rosenbaum sells 26,423 common shares.
    • Procore (PCOR) CEO sells $4.07M in common stock.
    • SNAP  COO and CFO sell $1.35M in common stock.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -36, Dow Jones -200,  NASDAQ -165, and Russell 2000 -16.  (as of 7:58 a.m. EDT).  Asia and Europe are lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 16.91 from 15.40 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.41% from 4.347%  yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $26,711 from $27,109 yesterday, lower by  -0.85%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Defensive, Utilities of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Financial, Energy, Basic Materials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical  of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Energy, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Industrial, of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

For months, investors snapped up tech stocks as if they didn’t believe the Federal Reserve’s promise to slow the American economy by keeping interest rates higher. Wednesday gave the latest evidence that the tech trade is cooling.   The central bank unveiled its long-telegraphed rate-hike pause but warned of possible increases to come. Markets largely didn’t like the message.   Bond yields hovered near at least 15-year highs, and big tech companies that powered the 2023 rally dragged down stocks, suggesting Wall Street is finally buckling in for a longer ride with higher borrowing costs.  Losses by Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (FB) and Nvidia (NVDA) weighed the tech-heavy Nasdaq down by 1.5% and pushed the S&P 500 0.9% lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%, or about 77 points.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: None of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: DRI +0.04 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: FDS (0.58) of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: FDS of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: IVA +16%, IRON +11%, AXTI +10%, FDX +5%, MESO +5% of note.
  • Gap Down: MDWD -11%, TRNS -8% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg) 
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Fed Signals Higher For Longer, Rate Hikes Almost Finished. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Nearly Half of All Young Adults Live With Mom and Dad – and They Like It. (Bloomberg)
  • Bank of England ends 14 straight interest rate hikes. (CNBC)
  • Swiss National Bank also ends rate hikes. (CNBC)
  • Swedish Central Bank raises rates to 4%, in line with expectations. (CNBC)
  • Fed’s Dream of a soft landing is facing a triple threat. (Bloomberg)
  • 10 year yield hits fresh highs this morning. (CNBC)
  • Darden Restaurants (DRI) parent of Olive Garden beats estimates despite weaker sales. (CNBC)
  • Greenbrier (GBX) wins orders for $1.9 billion in new railcar orders. (MarketWatch)
  • NPR Morning Report Marketplace: Hold steady. Wait and see. For now. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News: Azerbaijan announces ceasefire. (Podcast) 
  • NY Times The Daily: Canada confronts India over alleged assassination. (Podcast)`
  • Bloomberg: Here’s how workers describe Dollar General, brace yourself.  (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: Stocks to surge and bonds to sell off before recession hits. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score notches down to 14% from 17%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady welcome President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Mrs. Olena Zelenska of Ukraine to the White House, 3:00 p.m. EST
    • The President holds a bilateral meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, 3:25 p.m. EST
    • The President holds an expanded bilateral meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, 4:00 p.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route to the Washington Convention Center, Washington, DC, 7:10 p.m. EST

Economic:

  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
    September Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to -2% from 12%.
  • August Existing Home Sales is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 4.10 million from 4.07 million.
  • August Leading Indicators is also due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to remain at -0.4%.
  • Existing Home Sales 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity and News: 

  • Enovix (ENVX) to Acquire Routejade, a Korea-based coating supplier.
  • Toshiba (TOSBF) shareholders approve deal to take company private.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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