Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:
- The S&P 500 finished Thursday higher by 1.14% at 7637.76 from Wednesday lower by -0.45% at 7551.75.
- The S&P 500 sees support now at 7600 from 7500. Resistance is now at 7700 from 7600. In the last five months, support has moved from 6300 to 7600.
- The QQQ (Nasdaq-100 Index ETF) sees support now at 710 from 700. Resistance is now at 720 from 710 as the QQQ closed higher at 716.92.
- Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.967% from 4.967%.
Executive Summary:
- Stocks move into a one-week losing streak with the S&P 500 falling -0.80% in the last week, ended 9/11.
- U.S. moves into Week 30 of its attack on Iran, six months. Iran is attacking U.S. assets in the Gulf.
- The S&P 500 is now on a 1-day winning streak.
Key Geopolitical Events of Note
- Economic news of note.
- Weekly – Baker Hughes Rig Count of note.
- Monthly- Industrial Production and Leading Indicators of note.
- President Trump’s schedule:
- 8:00 AM: Executive Time (The White House)
- 9:00 AM: In-Town Pool Call Time
- 11:00 AM: Policy Meeting (Oval Office)
- 11:30 AM: Greets the Million Dollar Pitch Competition Finalists (The White House)
- 1:30 PM: Photo Opportunity (Oval Office)
- 2:30 PM: Announcement on Healthcare (Oval Office)
- 4:00 PM: Photo Opportunity (Oval Office)
- 4:30 PM: Bill / Executive Action Signing Time (Oval Office)
- 6:30 PM: MAGA Inc. Meeting (Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C.)
- 7:15 PM: MAGA Inc. Dinner (Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C.)
Fed and Other Speakers of Note: Bowman and Schmid.
Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:
- IPO Filings & News: due out this week: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
- BBNX closes $172.5 million common stock offering.
- HCWC pricing of common stock offering.
- Notes Filed Or Priced:
- ADC prices $400 million of senior unsecured notes.
- CHD prices $500 million of senior notes.
- CLH prices senior notes.
- Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
- HALO prices upsized private convertible bonds.
- CRWV prices
- Private Placement: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders: None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- JLL files mixed shelf offering.
- OMF files mixed shelf offering.
AFTER THE CLOSE:
- Earnings After The Close:
- Beats: None of note.
- Misses: None of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- News After The Close:
- Rexford Industrial (REXR) sell $1.2 billion portfolio to EQT Real Estate.
- Biogen (BIIB) publishes Phase 3 Adolescent EMPAVELI data in C3G and primary IC-MPGN.
- Hub Group (HUBG) gets NASDAQ delisting notice over delayed SEC filings, plans appeal.
- Steel Dynamics (STLD) issues Q3 EPS downside guidance.
- NASA selects SpaceX (SPCX) to provide launch services for StarBurst mission.
- Movers from last night:
- Pops: BWMX +4.50%, TMCI +3.80%, BRT +2.90%, INTA +2.5%.
- Drops: XENE -24.80%, STLD -4.2%, NUE -3. 1%.
- Executive Changes of Note:
- THFF CFO McHargue to retire at year-end, names Paul Nungester as next CFO.
- Dividends Going Ex
- Dividends Going Ex on Friday: QSR: $0.65 | IFF: $0.40 | SUNB: $0.30 | ESP: $0.25 | QCRH: $0.15 | TPB: $0.08
- Dividends Going Ex on Monday: AVGO: $0.65 | HLNE: $0.60 | JCI: $0.40 | OTF: $0.35 | KVUE: $0.21 | WRB: $0.10 | BRKR: $0.05
- TXN increases quarterly cash dividend to $1.52 per share from $1.42 per share.
- MCD increases quarterly cash dividend to $1.93 from $1.86.
- Buybacks of Note:
- APA increases share repurchase authorization by 40 million shares.
- CAVA to repurchase $100 million of stock.
What’s Happening This Morning:
Futures S&P 500 +10.25, NASDAQ 100 +130 and Dow Jones +13. Europe is lower and Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.955% from 4.984% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold and Silver are higher with Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and low higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $78,181 from $76,274
Sector Action: Healthcare, Biotech, Technology, Semiconductors rose on Wednesday.
- One-Month Winners: Energy and Communication Services of note.
- Three-Month Winners: Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
- Six-Month Winners: Technology, Financials, Healthcare and Energy of note.
- Twelve-Month Winners: Energy, Technology, Materials, Industrials, Financials and Communication Services of note.
- Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, Technology, Materials, Industrials, Financials and Healthcare of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Friday After the Close: None of note.
- Monday Before The Open: None of note.
Insider Activity: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beat: None of note.
- Missed: None of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: None of note
- Mixed –None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.
Advance/Decline Line Chart: Hits a new multi-month low, last seen in April.
Economic & Geopolitical
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
- Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman speaksat 8:00 a.m. EDT.
- Federal Reserve Kansas City City Fed Presidnet Jeff Schmid speaks at 11:45 a.m. EDT.
- President Trump’s Schedule:
- 8:00 AM: Executive Time (The White House)
- 9:00 AM: In-Town Pool Call Time
- 11:00 AM: Policy Meeting (Oval Office)
- 11:30 AM: Greets the Million Dollar Pitch Competition Finalists (The White House)
- 1:30 PM: Photo Opportunity (Oval Office)
- 2:30 PM: Announcement on Healthcare (Oval Office)
- 4:00 PM: Photo Opportunity (Oval Office)
- 4:30 PM: Bill / Executive Action Signing Time (Oval Office)
- 6:30 PM: MAGA Inc. Meeting (Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C.)
- 7:15 PM: MAGA Inc. Dinner (Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C.)
- Economic Data Out –
- Weekly – Jobless Claims and Natural Gas Inventories of note.
- Monthly-
- August Industrial Production is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 0.30% from 0.20%.
- August Leading Economic Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to stay at 0.20%.
M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.
Pre-Market Changes:
- Higher: BWMX +5.3%, NHIC +5.1%, TRMD +3.3%, TMCI +3.1%, INTC +3.0%, ARM +2.5%, BUR +2.5%, GOOG +2.4%, AAUC +2.2%, COHR +2.1%.
- Lower: XENE -26.6%, RTB -3.1%, BBNX -2.0%.
Moving Averages Summary: Stocks are at 23% from 26% above their respective moving averages and Bonds are still at 0%, unchanged.
Rags & Mags:
- Apple 18 Pro, Watchs and AirPods arrive in stores.
- Howard Buffett to become chair of Berkshire Hathaway as Warren retires.
- Bank of Japan raised interest rates last night.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- Citizens Ophthalmology Summit
- dbAccess Healthcare Summit
- Goldman Sachs Americas Financial Technology Conference
- Keybanc Energy Transition Symposium
- Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference
- Needham’s Defense Tech
- Oppenheimer Targeted Radiopharmaceutical Therapies in Oncology Summit
- TD Cowen Forest Products & Packaging Conference
- Top Analyst, Investor: AS, DCO, KOP, NVST, YETI, EAT, HUBS, THG, INTU, BAM note.
- Shareholder Meetings: LVO SNGX TTWO of note.
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Meetings:
- Salesforce Dreamforce (CRM)
- StoneX TMT One-on-One Conference
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
Upgrades: BMI DT ETSY FTCI STUB TRGP WCN YETI of note.
Downgrades: NFLX of note.